YouGov seats projection :
Liberal Democrats 10
Plaid Cymru 3
Northern Ireland Parties 18
Hung Parliament : Conservatives short by 16, Labour short by 69
I was going to do my customary 'shock, horror' headline, but my heart wasn't in it this time, because to be honest I just don't believe this projection - it doesn't pass the 'smell test' at all. If anything, YouGov have until now been more pessimistic about the SNP's prospects than other firms, so it's hard to understand why they're suddenly estimating an outcome that would be very nearly as good for the SNP as the 2015 result. And the explanation of the model used for the projection has so far been as clear as mud - the Times article refers twice to a YouGov "poll", and yet Sam Coates (who wrote the article) has loudly insisted on Twitter that it isn't a poll at all. He also added that it's based on a 7000-strong sample interviewed over seven days, which makes it sound very much like a poll, or some sort of poll aggregate. Apparently a more detailed explanation will shortly appear on the YouGov website, so hopefully it will make more sense then - although I suspect I'll still disbelieve the numbers even after I know more.
There has been some debate over whether the projected result would be enough to dislodge the Tories from government. The answer is that it almost would be - but not quite. A potential "progressive alliance" of Labour, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens and the SDLP would probably have either 313 or 314 seats - the uncertainty is because the SDLP's result has not been estimated. That would be sufficient to slightly outnumber the Tories on their own, but not to outnumber the Tories and Northern Ireland unionist parties in combination. The DUP would always favour a Tory government over one led by Jeremy Corbyn, so in practice the Tory-led forces would have the edge, and could only be dislodged if the Lib Dems offered their full allegiance to an unstable-looking Corbyn-led alliance. That seems highly unlikely, especially given that individual Blairites within the Labour ranks would probably be trying to sabotage any arrangement.
One thing's for sure, though - Theresa May's own position as Prime Minister would look utterly untenable.