Monday, May 22, 2017

It's more important than ever that pro-independence voters get behind the SNP in this election

First of all, a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at the TalkRadio website, which was inspired by an exchange I saw on Twitter last week between two passionately pro-independence young people who have become disillusioned with politics of late. The article argues that it's vitally important that the pro-independence movement gets out and votes SNP on June 8th.  You can read it HERE.  (You'll probably be able to spot that it was written before the events of the weekend.)

The promised firecracker of a Welsh poll from YouGov certainly didn't disappoint - it shows a complete transformation in the fortunes of the parties, with Labour not merely regaining the lead, but opening up a commanding advantage.

Wales-only YouGov poll :

Labour 44% (+9)
Conservatives 34% (-7)
Plaid Cymru 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
UKIP 5% (+1)
Greens 1% (n/c)

The fieldwork dates were from Thursday (the day of the disastrous Tory manifesto launch) through to yesterday.  Taken in conjunction with the GB-wide YouGov and Survation polls we saw at the weekend, plus a new GB-wide ICM poll released today showing the Tory lead dropping six points, I think we can safely say there is now ample evidence that the manifesto cost the Tories a shed-load of voters.  What we don't know yet is whether the partial and vague U-turn today will be enough to reassure those voters and bring them back into the fold.  (There's also a possibility that they'll be reassured on the specific policy but have new doubts about Theresa May's credibility as a leader.)  I have absolutely no idea what the effect will be, so all bets are off until we see at least one poll that includes fieldwork from today onwards.

Incidentally, in spite of the ICM poll showing a hefty swing away from the Tories, it still puts them 14% ahead, which is a bigger lead than in the YouGov and Survation polls.  But the difference might be partly explained by the fact that ICM appear to have too many Leave voters in their sample - 49% of respondents recalled voting Leave, and only 40% recalled voting Remain.  The poll is correctly weighted to recalled voting from the 2015 general election, but I'd have thought EU referendum vote is just as important a predictor of how people might act now.

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For some unknown reason, I'm on the Tory mailing list, and today I received an email from Theresa May informing me (as a presumed Tory supporter) that if she loses just six seats, Jeremy Corbyn will become Prime Minister.  That is absolute and complete rubbish - she's knowingly lying to her own supporters.  It's true that Corbyn could theoretically become Prime Minister without Labour becoming the largest party, but at an absolute minimum he would need the combined forces of Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the SDLP to outnumber the Tories (and in reality it would probably take more than that, because I doubt if the Lib Dems would back him).  That would require the Tories to lose significantly more than six seats.

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LAST CALL TO REGISTER TO VOTE : Please check your broom cupboards and attics for anyone who may not have registered to vote - they now have only a few hours left to do so. It's really quick and easy to do it, but if they miss the deadline they'll be powerless to stop the Tories in June. The estimates for the number of people who still haven't registered are absolutely terrifying, and they are disproportionately people who would be likely to vote against a Tory government. If you find someone who needs to register, send them to this link, and they'll be sorted in a matter of minutes.

38 comments:

  1. Your piece was a good one James. I'm essentially a Green voter these days and apart from anything else they are not standing here in Dundee East and I would probably abstain from voting for them in a GE and stick with Stuart Hosie.

    If you are in any way Yes there is little to no point doing anything other than voting SNP in this election. Though I'd be sore tempted if I lived in Glasgow North to vote for Patrick Harvie, though I'd need to see polls and/or have canvassed to be sure.

    As you say the mandate is secure, but the media are not going to leave it at that. So we cannot slip. Everyone MUST come out and vote like it's 2014 or 2015. You can only regret not doing so.

    BTW I think the SNP might go for more than a consultative referendum. I think they might assume the permission from last time still exists, even tacitly and pass a full referendum bill and dare Westminster to take them to court. The point is said by those who understand such things to be arguable. Better to make WM argue it than do it ourselves. Seize the initiative.

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    1. Well, if it was a referendum bill similar to the one that paved the way for the 2014 vote, the Presiding Officer would have little choice but to rule it out of order, so it wouldn't even get to the courts. That's why it would have to be a consultative referendum if there is no Section 30 order.

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  2. The section 30 order was rescinded at the end of 2014. The SNP can call a consultative referendum but it would be a waste of time and money and large numbers of voters would stay away.

    James, you are asking all pro sep people to back the SNP in this election. What happens if they get 44% to the pro union parties' 50%+?

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    Replies
    1. I presume you're talking about a scenario in which the SNP win a second landslide? If you don't like the first-past-the-post voting system, you should have campaigned to replace it. There's no point suddenly deciding it's a problem two weeks before an election you're going to lose.

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    2. Well, the tories could cancel this election waste of money ...oh, sorry!

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    3. The answer is that the SNP will have won massively, and whichever Fascists you support will have lost.
      A referendum should then be held, and if you do still have your 50% + vote, your unionists fascists will win.
      Why are you scared of that?

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    4. You are quite right about the first past the post system being used for this election. But it is a UK election and not a Scottish one. It is therefore valid for the UK government to look at the Scottish element of it and say "unionists 54%, separatists 46%, therefore no referendum". That's entirely logical.

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    5. No, it isn't. It could hardly be more illogical. If Theresa May claims a mandate on a majority of seats and 42% of the vote, she can hardly deny Nicola Sturgeon's mandate on a majority of seats and 42% of the vote.

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    6. The Tories will not be proposing any major constitutional steps or upheaval, however, except the brexit process already backed by referendum. It is reasonable to set a higher standard for the SNP, given that they wish to rerun a major referendum that was supposedly generational in nature.

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    7. Don't be silly, Aldo. You're making up these "rules" as you go on. If the SNP had 70% of the vote, you'd say they need 80%.

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    8. Not at all. If you get 50%+ then have your referendum.

      But you can't get a minority in:

      The indyref
      Holyrood 2016
      The local elections
      GE 2017

      and STILL argue that you are entitled to a rerun. There has to be some evidence of progress.

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    9. I haven't heard anyone in the Conservative party come up with any kind of threshold that would guarantee a referendum - not 35%, not 45%, not 55%. They just keep cretinously wittering on about how "now is not the time".

      Sorry, Aldo, but your personal opinion isn't terribly important.

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    10. What percentage of voters do the Tories need in GE to keep going ahead with Brexit ? Does that include no shows ?

      Based on Aldo's rules if they get less seats Brexit is off....

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    11. Imagine this discussion 15 years ago...We could everyones vote as Anti SNP.....Shows how far we have come.

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    12. Consultative referendum the same as the Brexit one....hows that working out. Again Aldo working his own moving goalposts.

      All the while shouting about democracy while trying to actually stop not a UDI but just a vote...Hilarious from Larkhall.

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    13. I did hear someone say something about it....

      Margaret Thatcher

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  3. It's still highly unlikely, but if the Tories end up with fewer seats after this election than they had before, it would probably be the funniest thing to happen in politics ever.

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    1. It would be funnier still if it ends up being a hung parliament and the SNP are the ones who decide who ends up in Downing Street, because sure ain't going to be the Tories, and just imagine the reaction from Dacre and company to that.

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    2. It was already pretty amusing, watching May at the Welsh manifesto launch babbling "Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!", flapping her arms about like a stroke victim and looking like she wanted to cry.

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    3. Flapping arms is a sign of a stroke. In that case the moaning gesturing Nat sis would all be in the QEUH and Knickerless would be wringing her drawers oot in a mangle.

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    4. Love, Love, Love.
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      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  4. What is becoming very clear is that the Tories do not want to exit Europe.
    They would have done so a year ago if that is what they really wanted.
    What we are now seeing is a longer game plan from them where they call a premature election to ensure that they are no longer seen to be the party which totally screwed the UK.
    They are hoping that either Jerymerry takes over or that they can form a better together "national" coalition with say the Limo chasers and blame them when everything goes tits up.
    What a tangled web...,..

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    Replies
    1. Why exactly is tits up a bad thing?? Just asking...

      Delete
    2. Because it means you're flat on your back (presumably) dead.

      Delete
    3. Its just that in my experience, if you are looking at tits up, Thats a good thing. Just saying...lol!

      Delete
    4. You are not eligible tae be a tit Palmer try being a qualified door knob.

      Delete
    5. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  5. Wales is different to Scotland. There are loads of small towns and villages in south Wales particularly where social clubs are the only relic of mining and other industry. The mines closed a generation ago? That doesn't matter: it's still part of the culture.
    There are still such clubs in Scotland, but people have moved on.
    For instance the Dockers club still exists in Leith, but the Port o' Leith pub has been sold off to yuppiedom.

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  6. James,

    I think the direction of travel is everything. Your views on that direction, whether it is increasing or decreasing might be interesting. Frankly I think that Theresa May's overall majority is a dead duck.

    Let's wait and see.

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  7. James, just to let you know. I managed to get two young SNP/Yes voters to register themselves for the election. One of which hasn't voted since the referendum. I have also ensured that two others don't lose their chance by getting them to register for a postal vote. I've also had to do the same. We're all under 30.

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  8. I resigned my (20 year) SNP membership on moving to North Lanarkshire, where corruption and outright gangsterism is quite evident. Although well known to SNP HQ it is met with a very limp response. All things being equal, I wouldn't vote SNP here if you put a gun to my head.

    But all things are not equal. The present Unionist onslaught, claiming that every vote is a referendum on independence, compels me to vote SNP. So I think you could be right (in an earlier post) about the Unionist attempt at polarisation backfiring. I know I'm just one data point (but I know others) who have reservations about the SNP but now have much diminished reservations about voting for them.

    As the Unionists sow, so shall they reap.

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    Replies
    1. The polarisation comes from your own party. The SNP leadership team / grandees have mentioned independence in public announcements at least once per week since September 18th 2014. Polarisation? There is but one true source, everything else being purely a reaction to it.

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    2. Ruth the trooth has mention independence in every sentence she uttered or writen ever since she got elected.

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    3. A party that wants an indpendent Scotland mentions independence more than 52 times in a year. Colour me shocked Mr Aldo the yoonbat racist.

      Meanwhile Terrorist May and her gang of Wahabi arms dealers have suspended democracy. Lucky us. Troops on the streets, The government of Scotland banned from publishing their manifesto.

      Isn't it so lucky for those dead children that the glorious UK security service is protecting us? Just another lie from 2014. Makes you proud.

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  9. Aldo I am afraid that it is British identity that is now the divisive element in Scottish Politics. I am Scottish, you are Scottish and British. We share our Scottishness but your insistence on forcing your Britishness on me and 50% of your fellow Scots is now the divisive issue.

    This unionist unreasonableness is simply underlined the more you twist and turn, inventing new definitions of 'democracy' in order to protect your weakened position. The weaker democratically your position gets the more divisive the issue becomes because it clarifies that this is about your own preferences for Britishness being more important to you than democracy itself. A supposed central tenet of the Britishness you hold so dear.

    As was made perfectly clear during IndyRef1, in an Independent Scotland you will still have the choice and ability to be both Scottish and British, no one is stripping you of your chosen identity.

    You and your fellow unionists however, by denying a mandated referendum called by our democratically elected Parliament are not only denying me the right to choose my Scottish identity but also you will strip me of my current European identity and citizenship rights.

    It is Britishness that is now the divisive factor in Scottish politics and it will be until it's adherents understand that they have no right to impose their particular identity choice on the rest of us by simply denying long accepted democratic process used to settle these issues in our society whenever they fear they would lose.

    Quite pathetic really.

    braco

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  10. James: any idea on how last minute registration went on Scotland? Was the last minute rush in the UK really higher than usual?

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    ReplyDelete