Monday, May 22, 2017

Tyrannical Theresa's wobbly weekend concludes with another sensational poll showing the Tory lead collapsing

OK, here we go.

*puts on Canadian accent*

It's another terrrrr-ible night for the Conservatives.

Survation telephone poll of GB-wide voting intentions :

Conservatives 43% (-5)
Labour 34% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (n/c)
SNP 3% (-1)
Greens 2% (n/c)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/c)

The SNP's 3% share is a little better than it looks - they were very close to being rounded up to 4% rather than rounded down to 3%.  In the Scottish subsample, they have a decent-enough lead over the Tories of 41% to 26%.  In terms of the gap, that's actually pretty similar to last week's subsample, which had the SNP ahead by 47% to 31%.  Remember that Survation's subsamples are particularly tiny (only 65 respondents in this case after the turnout filter was applied), so we can expect huge variations from week to week which will often be completely random and meaningless.

So we now have three GB-wide polls conducted since the public had a chance to digest the controversial pledges in the Tory manifesto.  The message from two of the three is absolutely unambiguous - there has been a telling swing from Tory to Labour which has brought the Tory lead down to its lowest level of the campaign.  The fact that one of those two polls was conducted online and the other by telephone makes it seem even more likely that a genuine shift in opinion has been detected. The picture is admittedly complicated by the fact that the third poll (the online Survation poll) technically showed an increase in the Tory lead from 11 points to 12.  However, the previous 11 point lead was several weeks ago, and even at the time stuck out like a sort thumb as a potential rogue poll.  In truth, a 12 point lead is on the low side for this campaign, and is well within the margin of error of the 9 points leads.  It's therefore perfectly consistent with the notion that the gap has probably narrowed significantly in recent days.

The big question is whether it will stay narrowed.  What's happening at the moment reminds me very much of the period in the independence referendum when the No-friendly pollsters (TNS, YouGov and Ipsos-Mori) very suddenly showed the No lead dropping sharply.  We reached a crossroads where one of two things was about to happen - either the momentum would prove irresistible and carry Yes to victory (or to a very narrow defeat), or people would for the first time consider the possibility that Yes might win, get very scared, and draw back from the brink.  As we all know, it turned out to be the latter, helped along by an unprecedented 'shock and awe' campaign from the London-based broadcast media.  I do wonder if the same thing might happen now.  Even though the chances of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister in a hung parliament are still extremely modest, people may start taking them a little more seriously, which will make all the old scare stories somewhat more potent once again.  If so, this weekend may actually help the Tories rather than harm them.  Let's hope not.

We know we'll get at least one more poll tomorrow (Monday), and that'll be a Wales-only poll from YouGov.  Professor Roger Scully has already revealed that it's going to show something pretty remarkable, and I don't think he's the sort to lead us up the garden path.  As the previous two polls in the series have shown Conservative leads, I think to qualify as remarkable the new poll would have to show either a big swing back to Labour, or an absolutely enormous Tory lead.  As the latter would be totally against the prevailing GB-wide trend, my strong guess is that we'll see more evidence of a Tory collapse, and Labour reclaiming their familiar position of dominance in Wales.  But I may be completely wrong - time will tell.

LAST CALL TO REGISTER TO VOTE : Please check your broom cupboards and attics for anyone who may not have registered to vote - they now have less than 24 hours to do so.  It's really quick and easy to do it, but if they miss the deadline they'll be powerless to stop the Tories in June.  The estimates for the number of people who still haven't registered are absolutely terrifying, and they are disproportionately people who would be likely to vote against a Tory government.  If you find someone who needs to register, send them to this link, and they'll be sorted in a matter of minutes.


  1. The death of ukip having the expected consequences. A lot of their voters came from labour and seem to have returned given old Jeremiah's support for jumping off the Leaving the EU cliff. And he's not planning on stealing their houses.
    Libdems down on last time so they're not going to regain any seats.

    Makes Kezzy's treachery in supporting the tories in Scotland even worse. We could end up with PM May thanks to MPs from Scotland elected by labour tactical votes. Pure genius.

  2. It looks like the Tories have the big mo. Such a pity for them it's going in the wrong direction.

    They've monumentally fucked up by attacking their core pensioner vote. Hell mend them.

  3. Tories in Wales on 40%, Labour on 30%.

    1. That’s the poll from last month. New one doesn’t look to have been released yet.

  4. Since I can't comment on Wings I'll put it here.

    Nurses don't deserve more pay. The NHS is short of money and we're pampering people who largely have no skills just because they've had endless good PR.

    Claire the nurse is on over £30,000 a year which is in the top 40% of earners. Plus her overtime, shift allowances and so on.

    If we want to make the NHS better then it's long since time to cut their pay. That goes treble for whiney whiney doctors.

    1. She says £22.
      Seriously, get a grip, and don't ever become sick or "whiney whiney" doctors may turn you away...

    2. I think there's a tendency here which needs to be checked. First we had people being insulting and dismissive towards the fishermen (who have been some of the most loyal nationalists). Now we have a generalised attack on workers (as opposed to managerialists) in the NHS. Surely the next step is to take action against the kulaks and kurkuls who criticise The Party.
      It seems to me that if things go really bad then it'll be because of this type of organisational loyalism. Meanwhile we're told to innoculate ourselves against nastiness by avoiding anything nationalist.
      Hmmm... wonder who this really benefits in the medium to long term? Wouldn't be Onionists of London / Brussels / Pick 'n' Mix variety would it?

  5. Expect another YouGov poll soon - I've just taken part in an online poll sent through their website. It asked specific questions about constituency vote.

  6. Apparently a Welsh one as well (I think at 4pm) to keep an eye out. Going by the sounds of Twitter etc probably will show Labour back in the lead in Wales.

    May today is the exact opposite of strong and stable. Backtracking, and all over the place.

  7. The Tories will produce the SNP bogey man out of their hat if it looks like a hung parliament.
    Worked last time.
    English voters don't like foreigners interfering in the running of their country.

  8. Just posted on Britain Elects -

    Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 44% (+9)
    CON: 34% (-7)
    PC: 9% (-2)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    UKIP: 5% (+1)

    (via @YouGov / 18 - 21 May)

  9. This is all part of the Media manipulation to create a narrative that the Election darn sowf is closer than it is in reality. Labour on 34% - not going to happen. It will take a surge in support for Fib Dooms to create a hung parly, darn sowf that is - that is the real situation in Ingerland but most of their pig ignorant Brexit electorate dont twig that fact. It was really the heavy Fib Doom losses in 2015 that put Cameron in with a majority.