Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Heartbreak for Rennie as Carnoustie by-election fails to show much trace of a Richmond Park bandwagon effect

Immediately after the Richmond Park result became clear a few days ago, Professor John Curtice speculated about the possibility of an 'Eastboune effect' - a reference to a by-election gain out of the blue in 1990 that got the Lib Dems back into the game after a couple of years during which they had appeared to be fading into irrelevance.  Well, the first little test of whether we're about to see something similar came in yesterday's Carnoustie by-election, and although there was an increase in the Lib Dem vote, it was pretty trivial in scale.

Carnoustie & District by-election result, 5th December 2016 :

Independent - Cheape 43.5% (n/a)
SNP 32.1% (-4.2)
Conservatives 17.7% (+11.6)
Labour 4.4% (-1.8)
Liberal Democrats 2.3% (+1.4)

I think the reason why a full-blown Eastbourne effect is unlikely is that British politics is much more fractured than it was in 1990.  Not only are there more 'major' parties to choose between, but Scotland is also now much more psychologically detached from the rest of the UK.  People here will have regarded the Richmond Park result as almost irrelevant to us - if you want to back an unashamedly 'Remain' party here, you'll generally do it by voting for the SNP, and not for a party that incomprehensibly voted against European single market membership in the Scottish Parliament only the other week.

That said, there's clearly scope for a 'niche' Lib Dem comeback in parts of England with decent levels of Remain support.  I was shaking my head in disbelief on Thursday night at Diane Abbott's complacent line of argument that the Lib Dems' pro-European pitch will not play well in areas that voted to Leave.  It doesn't need to, Diane - they're not trying to win a general election.  46% of the English electorate voted Remain, and if the Lib Dems can win over just one-third of those people, they'll essentially double their vote and regain a number of their old seats.  Polls prior to Richmond Park suggested that the "Brexit Means Brexit" Tories were still comfortably outpolling the Lib Dems among Remain voters in England.  There is now a golden opportunity for the Lib Dems to reverse that.

To return to Carnoustie, the SNP vote has actually held up much better than in the by-election in the same council area last week.  There seems to be a pattern in the north-east of some No voters switching from the SNP to the Tories, but it hasn't happened on a big scale on this occasion - most of the boost in the Tory support came from elsewhere.  Technically, this result is an independent gain from the SNP, but as is so often the case in STV by-elections, that's pretty meaningless - the SNP didn't actually win the popular vote in the ward last time around (they finished second behind a different independent).

As was the case last week, when the lower preferences of Labour voters were distributed, there were more transfers to the SNP (35) than to the Tories (20).  Has Kezia backed the wrong horse?

70 comments:

  1. Typical LibDems manoeuvre to ask other parties to step aside to beat Goldsmith. Then when they win they claim it's because their party is resurgent. Real team players and builder of "progressive" alliance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Woking Class 2December 10, 2016 at 10:57 PM

      Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are

      Delete
    2. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  2. Scottish LDs only exist now as a proxy Unionist vote. They serve no other purpose.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Glasgow Working Class 2December 6, 2016 at 5:17 PM

    Oh dear, Nat sis down 4.2. Looks like the beginning of the end for the Jokes. This time next year it will be FM Kezia. Never mind, maybe you Tartan Tories can still beat the Greens. Aye.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Labour 4.4% (-1.8)
      Should have gone to spec savers.

      Delete
    2. Please don't encourage poor Nadine and her impersonation of a Glaswegian. It's the Chardonnay talking, not her.

      Delete
  4. In 2012 the Independent candidate took 51% so not very surprised at the result. I spoke to a friend who was door knocking yesterday. A lot of voters were voting for the Independent candidate as he seems to be well know in the town. Even some SNP voters were doing so at this local election but will return at the next National election.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Glasgow Working Class 2December 6, 2016 at 8:01 PM

    "Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Poor Nadine. So angry. So tearful. So drunk. So sad...

      Delete
    2. Please stop with using a female name as an insult, Anonymous. To put it mildly, that is sexist.

      Delete
    3. You really are a total Dick head do us all a favour and die in your sleep you horrible object that you are!

      Delete
    4. Glasgow W0rking Class 2December 10, 2016 at 10:56 PM

      Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are..

      Delete
    5. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  6. Glasgow Working Class 2December 7, 2016 at 10:06 AM

    Care homes for elderly prisoners including sex offenders are required according tae macaskull. Edjikation is at its lowest since the Fash Nat sis have taken over. Nae wonder the Jokes have been written aff as welfare basket cases. And Knickerless thinks Frau Merkel will subsidise Scotland!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2December 7, 2016 at 10:11 AM

      Hiv the bottle tae use yer ain name ya racist tory scumbag. Go on dae it prick.

      Delete
    2. Please don't encourage poor Nadine and her impersonation of a Glaswegian. It's the Chardonnay talking, not her.

      Delete
  7. Tory Twat Sockpuppet Class 2December 7, 2016 at 10:13 AM

    "Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are."

    ReplyDelete
  8. The incompetence of the out of touch westminster establishmentDecember 7, 2016 at 10:16 AM

    scott mcnaughton ‏@RedcliffeScott Dec 4

    Not one Unionist on twitter has queried the fact Norway made £19b from oil last yr. Not one can explain why UK made zero for same product.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2December 7, 2016 at 11:25 PM

      Can you explain?

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2December 8, 2016 at 3:53 AM

      tory twat

      Delete
    3. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  9. I am guessing that the so called Independent is another closest Tory or UKIP rubber sock puppet who is too gutless to say where their true dark loyalties lay????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Come the next local election, there will be 2 Independent councillors in this ward for re-election so they might split their vote.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2December 8, 2016 at 7:32 PM

      That will be three independent candidates! Tories, UKIP and Scottish Tartan Tory Nat sis,

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2December 8, 2016 at 8:14 PM

      "Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are."

      Delete
    4. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  10. I hope somebody managed to record for posterity the comments by some of our nicest yoons on the Herald report about Michelle Thomson's rape speech.

    Will there be outrage in the msm tomorrow attacking the evil of cyberyoons? Will JK Plagiarist comment?

    Will it fuck. There are no depths to which they can sink without being shamed in public.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2December 8, 2016 at 7:37 PM

      Poor angry fool and idiot tae boot.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2December 8, 2016 at 8:14 PM

      "Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are."

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2December 8, 2016 at 11:25 PM

      The sheer desperation from the Nat si above about Thomson is a new low level
      even for the Nat sis. What a sick bag of vomit you are. And losers.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2December 9, 2016 at 5:29 AM

      "Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are."

      Delete
    5. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  11. Bumblefuck kipper tories for unityDecember 9, 2016 at 7:52 AM

    Jeanne Bartram ‏@JeanneBartram 12 hours ago

    Britain just sold the national grid to China and Qatar

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2December 9, 2016 at 9:36 AM

      Good old capitalism the Tartan Tories will not object to that.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2December 9, 2016 at 3:20 PM

      "Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are."

      Delete
    3. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2December 10, 2016 at 10:54 PM

      Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are.

      Delete
    5. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  12. Bumblefuck kipper tories for unityDecember 9, 2016 at 3:23 PM

    Jeanne Bartram ‏@JeanneBartram. 12 hours ago

    Britain just sold the national grid to China and Qatar

    ReplyDelete
  13. Glasgow Working Class 2December 9, 2016 at 11:16 PM

    Im off to have another sole session ripping the head off it whilst imagining Sturgeon with no knickers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2December 10, 2016 at 12:28 AM

      Racist Nat si impersonator. When Kezia becomes FM next year it's your head that will be ripped off.

      Delete
    2. So, decapitation is now Red Tory policy. Isn't that special...

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2December 10, 2016 at 7:19 PM

      Poor Nat si fundamentalist fash will be in their graves and the Union will continue forever. Strictly Come Dancing will be in its millenium series and the fash will be moanin about welfare benefits.

      Delete
    4. "Normally" I don't respond to this nonsense but increasingly I am finding myself reduced to two words with respect to the Westminster establishment,it's press pack and trolls,the second one of which is "off".
      A very sad state of affairs.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2December 10, 2016 at 10:55 PM

      Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are

      Delete
    6. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2December 11, 2016 at 6:03 PM

      Talking tae yerself again anon! Strange fellow indeed.

      Delete
    8. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  14. Glasgow Working Class 2December 11, 2016 at 6:38 PM

    Wee shitebag Kim Yung Eck going oan again about a referendum. Dae it now ya coward or move intae a single end wie Knickerless and gie us peace.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2December 11, 2016 at 8:26 PM

      Hiv the bottle tae use yer ain name ya racist tory scumbag. Go on dae it prick

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2December 11, 2016 at 8:27 PM

      Whit a bunch of pessimist moaners you Jocks are.

      Delete
    3. The Britnat si is arguing with itself again. (opens popcorn)

      Delete
  15. Surely that should read "Congratulations" to Willie Rennie. By his counting methods, the Liberals seem to have won Carnoustie.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same counting method as used by the Britnat rhododendron. It thinks Kezia will be FM next year despite a) the next election being due in 2021 and b) the Red Tories having 23 seats at Holyrood.

      Delete
    2. Always good for a laugh!

      Delete
    3. Yep. The rhododendron is a gift that keeps on giving.

      Delete
  16. Glasgow Working Class 2December 12, 2016 at 7:51 PM

    Go for the referendum shitheaps.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep. The rhododendron is a gift that keeps on giving.

      Delete
  17. Glasgow Working Class 2December 13, 2016 at 11:59 PM

    Joke Jocks hivvin tae pay merr tax, that will give them ra hump. The English should subsidise them as normal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep. The Britnat rhododendron is a gift that keeps on giving.

      Delete
  18. This place is awful now, am I the only one that struggles with all the repeated insults and other time wasting posts on here ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It takes about two seconds to ignore them. Can't you spare that?

      Delete
    2. Only came on here to read about polls, but they don't get discussed any more.

      Delete
    3. Yes that’s why I come here, James is very good at analyzing the polls and by-election results

      Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
      SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
      LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
      CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
      LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
      GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)

      Something for everybody in these results

      SNP: winners
      Labour: not as bad as it could have been( assuming the vote share changes are from 2012)
      Torys: more than doubled their vote.
      Ldems: vote share up.
      Greens maybe being squeezed a bit here.

      If this was STV maybe someone can post the results in full including voting transfers.

      Delete
  19. Glasgow Working Class 2December 15, 2016 at 10:23 PM

    Fash Nat sis have lost the plot they cannot tax the rich. They should form an alliance with babe Tank Commander Ruth and admit they are Conservative.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Britnat rhododendron is a gift that keeps on giving.

      Delete
  20. SNP win the Leven & Kennoway by-election with an increased vote.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fife Council made a muck up of the result, now corrected. SNP 1st pref vote slightly down but good win as 2nd Pref helped the SNP.

      Delete