Friday, July 15, 2016

Gentle reminder for Theresa May : it's not actually possible for you to prevent Scotland exercising its right to self-determination on independence

There were some dark murmurings on Channel 4 News last night that Theresa May has revealed herself in private to be a Thatcher-style hardline zealot militant Brit Nat fundamentalist who might even be reluctant to "grant" a second independence referendum if the Scottish Parliament votes for it.  During her regal visit today, she went no further than trotting out the tired "you'll have had your referendum" line, but it might still be an apt moment to point out to her why it's not actually possible for London to "block" a referendum, whatever she might have been led to believe...

1) Some (but not all) expert legal opinion states that the Scottish Parliament already has the power to hold a consultative referendum on independence, if the legislation is framed with great care.  At the very least, there would be a fighting chance of overcoming any legal hurdles and getting a referendum held without any involvement from the UK government at all.

2) If that doesn't work, there is the option of an early Holyrood election, which could double as a de facto independence referendum if the pro-independence parties state in their manifestos that they are seeking an outright mandate for independence.  The First Minister doesn't have the power to literally call an early election, but given the current parliamentary arithmetic it would be easy enough to bring one about, as long as the Greens were on board with the strategy.  It would simply be a case of the Scottish Government resigning, and the SNP and Greens between them preventing an alternative government from being formed.

3) If the UK government refuses to accept a mandate for independence from either a consultative referendum or an early Holyrood election, there is then the nuclear option of the SNP withdrawing its MPs from Westminster, which would leave Scotland almost totally unrepresented in the UK parliament.  Even the headbanger tendency in the London commentariat would come to acknowledge that the United Kingdom is not viable if one "partner" in the union has effectively withdrawn from the country's institutions.  Perhaps there might be one last appeal to the Scottish people to turf the abstentionist SNP out at the next UK general election, but if that call went unheeded, the game would essentially be up.

Now, I'm not saying that any of the above is remotely desirable or likely.  But the fact that the SNP have all these weapons in their armoury is a good reason for thinking that Theresa May is less likely to attempt to "block" a referendum than perhaps she even realises herself yet.

86 comments:

  1. Even the dimmest of tories eventually realised they couldn't possibly stop Devo refs with bluster and empty rhetoric. So it will be with Indy.

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  2. And another possibility - a simple UDI.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 5:48 PM

      That would be fascist.

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    2. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 5:51 PM

      .

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 6:05 PM

      That would be good. See how the loyalist community would react to that fash boy. Stick to the ballot box.

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    4. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 6:51 PM

      .

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    5. Yes we know how the "Loyalist community" would react to that.

      But they wouldn't be facing wee lassies in George Square this time...

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    6. This would be using the ballot box GWC dimwit.

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  3. There's also the tiny little thing that no-one's mentioning, which is that Holyrood has already declared that it doesn't actually need permission from Westminster to act in reserved areas, and will do so independently when it wants to. See Sturgeon pursuing Scottish Foreign Policy for an example.

    And of course, if Westminster tries to block Holyrood from having a referendum, then that's going to catalyse support for independence anyway.

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    1. Holyrood hasn't acted in reserved areas. Foreign affairs being reserved doesn't prevent the First Minister from talking to people, which is all she's done. She hasn't exceeded her legal powers in any way.

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    2. "And of course, if Westminster tries to block Holyrood from having a referendum, then that's going to catalyse support for independence anyway."

      This. In spades.

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    3. The orange lot can go ad live with you then bampot that you are. Away and annoy the Tories Oh you can't because you are one. aren't you gutless Glasgow Working Asshole. Still waiting on your reply hard man all mouth more like.

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    4. that poster is not scottish
      they have already proved it on here many times
      stop pretending that poster is scottish when thye clearly aren't

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    5. If we go for our own non-Westminster indy-ref#2 we need to tighten the rules for postal voting, which are widely recognised as being wide open to fraud (see 2014 report by English judge Richard Mawrey QC).

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    6. She may not have acted on it, but if I remember right, the act of parliament that started her talking to people did include the ability to take action as and when it becomes necessary.

      And that act hasn't been challenged by Westminster.

      Do correct me if I'm wrong on that though. Memory can be a funny thing.

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  4. Not sure what the purpose of May's 45 minute visit really was. It hasn't clarified anything, other than she's playing for time. It won't mean much to pro-indy supporters in Scotland or brexit britnats in England. If anything it has confirmed the differences between Scotland and England.

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    1. Bumblefuck tories for unityJuly 15, 2016 at 6:23 PM

      " It won't mean much to pro-indy supporters in Scotland or brexit britnats in England."

      Well there is the traditional 'paying of the lip service' from tory PMs to be carried out.

      However, Brexiteers would have to be pretty dumb not to realise that the ground just shifted massively under their feet with the prospect of Scotland and Northern Ireland being inextricably linked to any article 50 trigger.

      May is fundamentally no different to the Cameroons or even Major when it comes to 'solving' the tory party EU chasm and split.

      Boot it into the long grass as far and as fast as possible. Then hope to god something 'turns up' and the cracks can be papered over. Finally, if it all looks impossible, only really worry about it when it can't become someone else's problem after an election.

      So called 'National Interest' always comes a distant second to that.

      As we all saw with the Brexit vote in the first place.

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    2. All that can be achieved by waiting for ever is uncertainty. It is not just here, but in 27 other nations that we wait to see what England is going to do. The neighbours will not wait in limbo for ever.

      Either parliament decides to ignore the vote, or the A50 button is pressed. Delay does no-one any good. England must decide - soon.

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    3. Bumblefuck tories for unityJuly 15, 2016 at 7:23 PM

      "All that can be achieved by waiting for ever is uncertainty."

      You think we're not already neck deep in that?

      Some kind of interim 'deal' with the EU might be cobbled together when Boris and Fox belatedly realise they are way out of their depth and need more time.

      It wouldn't be very pretty and the EU would extract a hefty price. However, the alternative of pushing the article 50 button, when it is abundantly clear neither the remainers or the Brexiteers in the tory side have anything close to an agreed upon convincing plan or even a united front, would be close to suicidal.

      As I'm sure various 'influential' tory MPs/ministers will be briefed to that effect if they haven't already.

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  5. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 6:17 PM

    Mr Kelly, you are right knickerless has only talked to people to undermine the UK and those of us who voted to remain in the UK and out of the EU gravy train. Her mission along with Kim Yung Eck is to constantly undermine the UK. Her crawling to the EU was such an attempt and the British Government know this.

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 6:23 PM

      .

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 7:06 PM

      Actually I am Scottish, British and live in Scotland although I have had the audacity to visit England.
      You can now refrain from being the racist anti English idiot you are.

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    3. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 7:13 PM

      .

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    4. You are also good at one finger typing. Your other hand being engaged.

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    5. https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_Act_1705&ved=0ahUKEwiUu5-5s_XNAhXkD8AKHVloB6MQFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNEpODdnw8jj8jiliPdHYioH9BZZsA&sig2=JyMdOEI_N3Nq_DEXG7Pe9A

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    6. Glasgow Working Tory why don't you piss of loser!

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    7. that poster is no more from glasgow than david cameron is
      we all know he is an english far-right racist troll

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    8. Glasgow Working Class 2

      Quit talking about things you're not capable of.

      You're like most Unionist trolls...you talk a big talk online, but IRL you wouldn't say boo to a ghost.

      Go back the pub and cry in your cheap lager, you Westminster bootlick.

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  6. iScot Magazine ‏@iScotNews 1 hour ago


    "With Scotland facing exit from the EU against our will, warm words about a 'special Union' won’t cut it." #Telt

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 7:09 PM

      Not against the will of over a million loyalists.

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    2. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 7:13 PM

      .

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  7. The ultimate weapon is a UDI and a gentle reminder may be in order that more nations (including the USA) have used that for achieving national sovereignty than have used a referendum.

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    1. I think any declaration of independence without the cooperation of the rUK is quite unlikely.

      We must admit that independence support is weak in Scotland (we've recently seen it creep slightly above 50%) and the prospect of independence where Spain doesn't even recognise Scotland (Kosovo style), and vetoes its accession to the EU, is unlikely to win a Yes result in a referendum that's been opposed by WM.

      I would think that if WM are uncooperative, we will be a bit stuck.

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  8. I think that what it has clarified is her getting to know Nicola Sturgeon better. A 45 minute meeting does no more than establish pleasantries and goodwill. They had the opportunity to size one another up. I don't think they had met each other before.

    It's significant in itself that she thought this was the second most important thing she had to do after appointing her Cabinet was to meet with the Scottish First Minister.

    I actually think they will get on pretty well at the personal level, even if they have profound differences over politics and the union. They are quite similar. Hard working, clear headed, pragmatic, pay attention to detail, determined.

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  9. Anyone know if any more indy polls are underway? I make it only 3 since the Brexit vote and they were all last month.

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  10. So Tories have learned nothing from last time then. I was slightly worried they might have.

    Anyway, good to kick off indyref2 with a poll lead this time around.

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    1. Bumblefuck tories for unityJuly 15, 2016 at 7:03 PM

      The biggest of the westminster bubble twits seem to be harbouring under the delusion that presenting a dogshit 'deal' as a fait accompli - in the face of the overwhelming desire from scots for something far better - would make May look "reasonable".

      Certainly worked well for Labour and THE VOW.

      Which is why SLAB is all but destroyed coming 3rd at Holyrood and with 1 pitiful westminster MP.

      Good strategy all round then. ;o)

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  11. Independence won't work, even if Indyref2 resulted in e.g 55% YES vs 45% NO. I say this because the economic consequences will be so dire and immediate, that many of the 55% will regret their decision and rally behind the 45%.

    How do you propose to take those 45% with you against their will, and those that rally behind them? Especially as no more borrowing and no more English subsidy means the SNP will have to enforce austerity measures worse than the "evil" Tories in 2010.

    Scotland is currently living in la la land, and only able to sustain its obscene leftist/socialist government spending because of its union with England. Post-independence this reality will hit home hard, and people will suffer as they lose their jobs, and as the NHS falls apart and big business moves south. A severe economic depression is around the corner post-independence.

    The SNP will be resigned to the fringes of politics once again. Good riddance.

    It wont be long until Scotland finds its way back into the UK, somehow.



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    1. "Independence won't work, even if Indyref2 resulted in e.g 55% YES vs 45"

      Hilarious Yoon Zoomery.

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    2. Anon - you missed 'And Scotland would have Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary'.

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    3. LOL!

      Yoonie Plank watching the UK go down the toilet and STILL manages to say that Scotland is better off attached to the increasingly bigoted, xenophobic, racist basket-case which is Little England - complete with the biggest universal laughing stock of a Bullingdon Buffoon in post as Foreign Secretary, who has already managed to offend half the Planet.

      Bye Bye, suckers - Scotland is much, much better than that utter dross.

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    4. A newly independent Scotland would struggle to borrow money and would no longer receive an English subsidy of £9 billion per year. That is one huge black hole in Scotland's budget... and made worse as big business and all their tax revenue goes south.

      At some stage, ScotNats are going to have to come clean and admit the Scottish people are going to suffer hard post-independence. What gets the axe first? Free higher education? The NHS? Pensions?

      Polls show support for independence may be shifting towards 55%, a small majority - while it lasts that is ;). But seriously, try taking the other 45% with you when the NHS is gone, their pensions are cut and they are paying higher taxes (if they still have a job).

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    5. Better Together? LOLJuly 15, 2016 at 8:51 PM

      "and would no longer receive an English subsidy of £9 billion per year"

      Yet more fantastical Yoon horseshit pulled out of your arse.
      So tell it to your of the out of touch Kipper pals who might be dumb enough to believe it.

      It's about as believable as the cowardly Farage and Boris promising £350 Million to the NHS every week. I look forward to seeing that about as soon as the rest of the Leave bullshitters nonsense.



      Oh and while we are on the subject of the NHS, educate yourself for once you Yoon dimwit.

      Government proposes inquiry into moving to a 'pay NHS'
      15 July 2015

      https://www.opendemocracy.net/ournhs/richard-grimes/government-moves-to-consider-nhs-user-charges

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    6. When England/Wales break away fom the EU and lose single market membership, it will take no time at all for Scotland to become the new EU hub for banks, service industries et al to relocate to Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee, Aberdeen.......

      The increase in Scottish finances will be truly huge.

      And the converse will also be true - rUK will see its GDP plummet along with the Pound, the NHS will crumble into full privitisation, unemployment will soar and the London Riots will no longer be confined to London.

      The faces of bitter, wee Yoonies will be a sight to behold as their little world collapses around their lugs, their Union is relegated to the back pages and drifts into world obscurity where it belongs.

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 10:06 PM

      Have to laugh at David the socialist going on about the Capitalist Hub. Ye cannae make it up David can ye but ye dae. Laugh oot Loud innatt.

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    8. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 10:22 PM

      .

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    9. Have to laugh at you Arsehole!! Go away and try and rescue your Labour party after all they are Tories like you.

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    10. You auditioning to be May's dildo, sonny?

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    11. that poster is not scottish
      we all know he is an english far-right racist troll

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    12. Another Unionist mongo with no idea what they're talking about.

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    13. Glasgow Working Class 2July 16, 2016 at 12:41 PM

      David, knickerless and May share the same candy rock.

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    14. Do you not know that Scotland produces 25-30% more foods than we consume,that is after trading,net exporter of foods,England net importer of foods around 35% is what they import.We are self-sufficient,with net exports,not a poor country but some don't have the sense to go and find out how wealthy our country really is.We also have scope to increase production of staples (food stuffs)and energy maybe one day they will run the hydro system at even 50% if not go for a full 100% trial.It really can produce enough power for us.

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    15. "How do you propose to take those 45% with you against their will"

      Same way 48% are coming out of EU against their will.

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  12. Stephen Bush ‏@stephenkb 4 hours ago

    Surprising number of folk seem to think that repeatedly saying "there is no appetite for a 2nd independence referendum" will make it true.

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  13. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 7:36 PM

    Knickerless jimmy krankie fan dabbie dozzzie is lost in space. She knowns the Scots will support democracy but bumps her gums to please the idiot fash Nat sis, some who comment on here. The loyalist people in Scotland need to mobilise to counter the Nat si fascist threat to democracy .

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from England.

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    2. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 7:54 PM

      .

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 10:15 PM

      Fascist anti English nutt job who cleary has skidmarks on the undies and confined to a room somewhere waiting for the social services to arrive. Soon maybe.

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    4. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 10:23 PM

      .

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    5. You're like a sad little 14 year old schoolboy repeating what his drunk da tells him about politics.

      Don't you have a bottle of Buckie to finish?

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  14. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJuly 15, 2016 at 8:02 PM

    Isn't "Trumppence" what Boris used to throw at foreign waiters when he was vandalising restaurants and acting a twat in the Bullingdon club?

    ;o)

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  15. Would like to see a change in a mindset that seems pervasive. England (not "the UK") has sold us the fiction that it is the continuing state.

    The UK is not the parent of Scotland, Scotland is the parent of the UK.

    Scotland created the Union and without Scotland the Union ceases to be.

    Scotland is an equal partner with England and Scotland will not (indeed cannot) "secede from the UK".

    Nor will it make any unilateral declaration of independence implying secession.

    Rather, being mindful of the sovereign will of the People for independence expressed in indyref2, the Scottish Parliament will pass legislation rendering the Articles of Union null and void, thereby dissolving the union with England.

    This is not one way of achieving independence, it is the ONLY way Scotland and England can be free of one another.

    Independence will not be "won" or "gained", it will simply be restored as a natural consequence of the ending of the international treaty entered into with England in 1707.

    Scotland does not require the permission of England to end this voluntary union.

    Scotland will not be a new nation any more than England would be a new nation. Both will be successor states.

    There can be no rUK. The UK cannot survive its own dissolution.
    Consider the tautology: When the Union is dissolved, the Union ceases to be.

    In summary:
    The United Kingdom of Great Britain is a legal and political entity formed by the union of two and only two countries – the Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England (incorporating Wales). It was created by a bilateral internationally recognised treaty.
    It is the case that upon dissolution of the Treaty of Union, its associated enabling acts of parliaments, and any subsequent contingent intra-state treaties and agreements derived therefrom, the United Kingdom of Great Britain will cease to be.

    I've written about this in greater depth here http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/02/25/the-fiction-of-the-continuing-state/

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    1. A question (or two) on the other Union in the forefront at the moment if I may?
      Is an act of parliament required to exit the EU? If so are the government likely to face major opposition?

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    2. You are right Christian. I withdraw the UDI suggestion. Nice one!

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  16. Bumblefuck tories for unityJuly 15, 2016 at 8:58 PM

    Ewan Crawford ‏@ewansc 6 hours ago

    Theresa May in April: "we might find that (Brexit) is fatal to the Union with Scotland"

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  17. Glasgow Working prick. Don't threaten me with "loyalists". Let's meet up and discuss our differences, eh?

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    Replies
    1. that poster is not scottish
      you genuinely still need to be told that even now?

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2July 15, 2016 at 10:54 PM

      You hiv tae get oot of yer bedroom tae meet people son.

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    3. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 15, 2016 at 11:00 PM

      .

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  18. Bumblefuck tories for unityJuly 15, 2016 at 11:03 PM

    JOHN NICOLSON M.P. ‏@MrJohnNicolson 1 hour ago
    Welcome to the 19th Century. The new International Development Secretary wants the death penalty back.

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  19. Blairites of Mass DestructionJuly 15, 2016 at 11:04 PM

    Dumbo's Feather ‏@Communitaria71 59m

    Has Frances Barber explained why the coup in Turkey is Jeremy Corbyn's fault yet?

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  20. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJuly 15, 2016 at 11:34 PM

    Kevin McKenna ‏@kmckenna63 10 minutes ago

    Turkish president Erdogan believed to be flying to London; Boris told us this would happen ...

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  21. There is also the fact that were May to try and block a referendum she would be in conflict with her leader in Scotland who whilst opposing one does not believe Westminster should block one .

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  22. No doubt the Russian Czars told the Bolshevics that they had no "legal right" to overthrow their hegemony.
    Nowadays we have democratic means to achieve those ends and do not have to resort to violence (at least I sincerely hope not).
    The UK "constitution" has always been shrouded in secrecy so that it can be manipulated by politicians for their own purposes when required but cannot stand the test of democratic mandate when it applies to specific matters.
    Westminster knows that we have a democratoic mandate to remain EU citizens and doesn't know how to deal with that situation so is kicking the can down the road.

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  23. Thought so GW prick. Your another mouthy nomark that's never faced and dealt with an angry man. You carry on threatening us with your fat bastard, drunken bigots in ludicrous, ill fitting, crimpolene, pseudo military dress uniforms accompanied by decrepit, bitter old men in bowler hats and orange sashes.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2July 16, 2016 at 3:02 PM

      Got that piece of verbal diahorea aff yer chest ya Nat si tosspot. Bowler hats are quite attractive when worn by women wearing sussies.

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    2. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 16, 2016 at 4:58 PM

      .

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  24. Well, after Maggie May’s wee visit we can safely assume the so-called united kingdom continues on its merry way towards self-destruction.

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  25. Glasgow Working Class 2July 16, 2016 at 3:17 PM

    History was made when Knickerless and May met. Two wee Tory wummin meeting in Scotland both wearing shag me shoes. Kim Jung Eck could get a sandwich.

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 16, 2016 at 4:57 PM

      .

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    2. Hi Nadine. You've been on the Prosecco without telling me you naughty tart :-)

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  26. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJuly 16, 2016 at 5:00 PM

    BloombergVerified account ‏@business 5 hours ago

    He spent 5 months condemning the EU. Now Boris Johnson has to make friends in Brussels http://bloom.bg/29z54FC

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2July 16, 2016 at 5:35 PM

      The EU has to make friends with Boris. And why should a corrupt Org like the EU not be condemned!

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    2. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 16, 2016 at 8:08 PM

      .

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    3. It's Nadine again! Are you squiffy again, my sweetness?

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