Thursday, June 23, 2016

YouGov on-the-day poll predicts narrow Remain victory

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 52% (+1)
Leave 48% (-1)

This is very reminiscent of the YouGov on-the-day poll for the indyref, which showed the tiniest of last-minute swings in favour of the status quo.  The difference is, though, that Remain are on 52% compared to 54% for No two years ago, which leaves open the potential for a Leave victory if YouGov are just a little out.  As it happens, they were a little out two years ago, but it was Yes that they overestimated by 1%.  We'll see.

UPDATE : Ipsos-Mori's on-the-day phone poll looks more convincing for Remain -

Remain 54% (+2)
Leave 46% (-2)

So it does look like there's been a genuine late swing towards the status quo, albeit not a massive one.  Leave can only really win now if there's been some kind of systemic problem with the public polls - although that's scarcely unheard of.

UPDATE II : To give a tiny glimmer of hope to Leave, it looks like the YouGov figures have flattered Remain slightly due to rounding - it's actually Remain 51.6%, Leave 48.4%.

23 comments:

  1. I'm putting out my "final numbers" tonight at about 5 am EST.

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  3. Is this a return phone poll.Heard a some reports that thrnout in traditional Labour areas down south is very high.
    This is on a knife edge I think

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  4. Is this a return phone poll.Heard a some reports that thrnout in traditional Labour areas down south is very high.
    This is on a knife edge I think

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    1. I was polled for this and it was online.

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  5. It does look as though Scotland may well be the difference between the UK staying in the EU and not leaving. Of course it is possible that Leave could still win though, given the very slender lead by Remain in the polls. Even if they got it just a little bit wrong then Leave could well sneak through and snatch it. But Scotland making the difference would annoy some very powerful people in the UK a lot.

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    1. I think those very power people will hear a favourite Scottish phrase of mine......Get it up you.

      Lol

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    2. More likely Remain will win in England too, and we can all go back to bed after this massive waste of time.

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  6. Farage concedes!

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  7. And then unconcedes!

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  8. What is everyone thinking ?

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  9. I think the polls are out by 2% easy. This could be a recount or revote!

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  11. What we thinking if anyone is still up?

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  12. Wow might I be on the winning side this time? Upset looking very possible

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  13. British(English) Nationalism is on the rise, judging by the voting returns so far

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  14. So to the Yes/Leave voters, if this is an England Leave, Scotland Stay vote....how would you vote in the next independence referendum?

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  15. James, any clue on how it looks?

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    1. Potentially very, very close, but London and other big cosmopolitan urban areas in England are the wildcard - they could swing it for Remain.

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  16. Ever since I watched the 1979 GE programming on the BBC with my Mum as an 8 year old wee lad, I've always loved election or referendum nights. It's thrilling!

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  17. 1979 was a dismal introduction to Election coverage, Alex! Oh Lordie, I remember that night!

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  18. Same here , USA, 1968 primaries, convention, finals.

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  19. Same here , USA, 1968 primaries, convention, finals.

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