Friday, February 5, 2016

YouGov polling on independence, and Scottish voting intentions for the EU referendum

Although the recent Panelbase poll showed a two-point drop in support for independence, that was simply a reversion to the mean.  The Yes vote was 47%, which is very typical of what Panelbase have been reporting since the referendum.  Today's YouGov poll also shows a 2% drop in the Yes vote, but this is something different, because it sees support for independence slipping to 45%, which is outside YouGov's normal range.  Until we see corroboration of that trend from another pollster, the jury will be out on whether public opinion has really shifted, or whether this is a one-off finding.  There is nothing obviously suspicious in the datasets, but remember that one poll in every twenty is expected to be an outright  'rogue poll', ie. less accurate than the standard margin of error of 3% in either direction.  Considerably more than one poll in twenty will be out by 2% or more, so this could just be an extreme example of margin of error 'noise'.  Time will tell.

And the big disparity between YouGov-style online polling and 'real world' polling (telephone and face-to-face) should also be borne in mind.  The only two real world polls on independence since the referendum have shown a clear Yes lead, so even if there has been some recent slippage, it's still perfectly possible that Yes are ahead.

YouGov also asked the EU referendum question, and found overwhelming and growing Scottish support for remaining in the EU - on the very same day that a Britain-wide YouGov poll showed the Leave campaign opening up a potentially significant 9% lead.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 55% (+4)
Leave 28% (-3)

That Remain lead is even more emphatic than suggested by the Scottish subsample of the Britain-wide poll (although admittedly the comparison is not completely exact, because part of the fieldwork for the Scottish poll preceded Cameron's failure to secure a substantive deal). The Leave vote is also a whopping 17 points lower than in Britain as a whole, so with the best will in the world, it's very difficult to see how any overall Leave victory isn't going to be coupled with some kind of Remain win in Scotland, thus providing a casus belli for a second independence referendum.

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SCOT GOES POP INDEPENDENCE POLL OF POLLS

This update of the independence Poll of Polls takes into account two new polls (Panelbase and YouGov), so the changes are a bit less glacial than normal.  As you'd expect, the run of two successive updates showing an exact 50/50 split has been broken, but the state of play remains very tight.

MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 49.2% (-0.8)
No 50.8% (+0.8)

MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 45.5% (-0.8)
No 47.0% (+0.7)

MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 47.9% (-1.3)
No 52.1% (+1.3)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have polled on independence since the referendum, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are six - YouGov, TNS, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)

44 comments:

  1. Curious though, folks don't want independence but want the SNP Scottish Government to save them from all the downside of being part of the UK, and their No vote.

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    1. Yeah, people complain about politicians lying but when you basically ask the to lie...

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    2. Yeah, people complain about politicians lying but when you basically ask the to lie...

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  2. I kind of like the scenario where England votes very marginally to leave, but Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay, enough to produce a very close remain result. How would England react to that!

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  3. I notice that Nicola's approval rating has fallen and satisfaction with the Scottish Governments handling of the economy has taken quite a fall. I wonder if the North Sea crisis has sunk in, or whether it's an unusual sample.

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  4. So, tories in power, EVEL in place, cuts to the Scottish budget, illegal wars and war crimes committed by the UK Gov, inaction in the North Sea, no HS2 to Scotland,continuous decline in UK media and we are dropping support? What the fk is going on?

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 7:15 PM

      Tories in power by proxy in Scotland, they are called the SNP. Wake up you pretend lefties in the SNP you are being conned and it will be recorded in history.

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    2. Aye, whatever. Have you finished delivering the Tank Commander's leaflets yet?

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  5. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 7:12 PM

    The Jocks just want to get the best social security benefits from whatever sourse available. They have no shame or pride. What happened to the nation state and real independence. The nat sis are the ultimate hypocrites they want to leave our neighbours and sell themselves to Herman and the Frogs. Makes ye vomit.

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    1. No wonder so many Jocks wish they were English.

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  6. Edinburgh Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 7:53 PM

    Despite everything and all, support for independence is only 47%. Wow, this certainly makes it a bright day around my neck of the woods at Morningside.

    People are starting to wake up to the fact that oil is too volatile meaning an independent Scotland wouldn't survive. The yessers will probably start jumping around like wee mad frogs saying, oil is a bonus, Scotland's GDP per person is 99% of UK GDP per person without oil.

    Blah, blah. At the end of the day GDP is not as significant as the fact that an independent Scotland wouldn't be able to retain current expenditure levels after independence. Before the referendum there was already a £7bn blackhole in the projected finances of an independent Scotland. That blackhole was based on over-optimistic scenarios by the Scottish Government regarding oil revenues where the Scottish Govt was expecting approx £6-7bn a year. The truth is, the UK is now taking in tax less than £1bn from oil given the recent oil price crash. So the £7bn blackhole has now increased to £14bn.

    Scotland spends an extra £1000 per head in public services and without oil money there is bugger all to keep current expenditure.

    If you want savage cuts and a liberal paradise with public services getting slashed then vote for independence. The SNP mantra that we can be independent, have low taxes and high public expenditure doesn't work. Not even the Scandinavians manage it!!

    So unfortunately for you folks it's UKOK and it will be UKOK for a very long time. Face it, we are better together and thanks to the union Scotland is prospering. Without the Union we'd be like Greece.

    Smell the coffee folks, a lot of people are doing it. A few yes voters in my circle of friends are now solid NOs. It's just economic suicide i'm afraid. Too many unaswwered questions.

    That after EVEL and 6 years of Conservative government, with a majority Conservative government for the last year, 6 years of austerity with more to go until 2020 and beyond...if after all that support for independence is only 47%, you've got a lot to worry about.

    Also, the main thing here is that the last referendum in 2014 and Quebec proved that a lot of people crap themselves at the ballot box so to be on the safe side you're probably looking at polling figures approx at 55-60%. There will always be a 5% swing towards status quo on a referendum polling day. So your 47% is more like 42%.

    SNP support is also crashing. Not that long ago you were getting 60% with several pollsters, now you're polling closer to 50%. That's pretty much a 10 point drop.

    There will be no brexit, people will go back to the status quo. Even if rUK voted to leave and Scotland voted to remain, that will make no difference. Scotland doesn't have the appetite or stomach for independence.

    This YouGov poll already puts your majority at risk with potentially worse to come. Given that parties in power will loose popularity over time, a fourth SNP majority and govt is unlikely. I therefore foresee a unionist govt after 2020. Unless you get independence sorted by then, it's not going to happen any time soon.

    Let's face it. The only reason the SNP are winning is because of the support of yes voters no matter what. However when it comes to policy: NHS, education, the police...they are blatantly failing. Eventually, the chickens will come home to roost and voters will be too fed up to continue backing the SNP no matter what.

    Time to bring out the champagne. You should definitely listen more to my friend Glasgow Working Class and the likes of Aldo, they're the only ones here with a tad bit of common sense and wisdom.

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    1. What a monumental rant. Have the Daily Heil offered you a column yet?

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    2. EWC, I can't be ar##d reading. Well done on wasting your time :p Get it up you!

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    3. Wrong.

      You are just a verbose, dumb, Unionist.


      Roll on May and a larger SNP Majority Govt.

      Roll on June and watching the Tory Filth tearing themselves to shreds over the EU.

      Roll on rUK ( by most polls) trying to take Scotland out of the EU.

      The Union and Unionism is on its last wee legs up here - and that is why most Scots believe their Country will be Independent in their lifetimes.
      Just over 3 years ago, support for Indy was around 30% on average.
      Now, its just above 49% on average.

      Wonderful watching the pale wee faces of the cap-doffing, Westminster sycophants, as the Unionist Parties are stumbling along, about 30'odd points behind the only REAL Party of Scotland.

      Great to see those same Unionist Parties kept in their, very lowly, places.

      Happy Days.




      Time for a wee Malt.

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    4. EWC
      You just don't have the guts or the spine to be a part of this.Youre better just to hide behind the skirts of Mother England.

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    5. Sounds suspiciously like Aldo. Particularly the weird Marxian certainty (or claim to be certain) that the Nats can't last and that the unwashed will eventually see the merits of Kezia Dugdale, or Neil Findlay, or Ken Macintosh, depending on how long this inevitability takes.

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    6. I've noticed the Yoons have been getting very agitated over the past few days, and this epic rant by EWC pretty endemic of it. We have Labourites crowing about the SNP & Tories supposedly being "shoulder to shoulder" on the tax rise fiasco, Fraser Nelson smugly suggesting Scotland would be an economic basket case, and everyone crowding around an anonymous abusive troll with powerful friends.

      People are starting to wake up to the fact that oil is too volatile meaning an independent Scotland wouldn't survive.

      Here's the thing: if people were really "waking up" to Scotland being uniquely incapable of surviving where literally hundreds of other countries have, then why hasn't support for independence utterly collapsed? You'd think that the oil price would see support for independence plummet down to 30% or even less.

      Yet it hasn't. It's still regularly above 40% - which is, don't forget, a "close result" according to the leader of Better Together. This is after close to 18 months of a media relentlessly reminding the people of Scotland how the low oil price would have destroyed an independent Scotland. Yet it's still over 40%. Why? Are all those hundreds of thousands of Scots just stupid, or deluded, or mad?

      Meanwhile, support for the Unionist parties truly HAS cascaded. The Lib Dems haven't broken the 10% mark, and Labour are starting to skirt towards third place after the Tories - this, even after they've openly allowed their candidates to back independence.

      So riddle me this: if support for independence is truly faltering, and support for the SNP is dropping, then what does that say for support for the union and the unionist parties?

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    7. Not that long ago you were getting 60% with several pollsters

      There have only been *2* polls - let alone pollsters - which showed the SNP above 60%, in May and August last year respectively. They've actually been hopskotching 50-59% fairly consistently since September last year. Hell, we just had one on the 26th that had 57%.

      So yeah, "10-point drop..."

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  7. Edinburgh Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 8:07 PM

    Ach how typical of the yessers. You tell them facts and they cover their ears and go: 'nananana'.

    Good luck with the your fantasy White Paper for the Republic of the Unicorns.

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    1. Here, EWC did you see that Ireland's economy grew 7% last quarter. How's that little anti-independence case study working for you now?

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    2. Edinburgh Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 8:15 PM

      Again going with GDP. How about unemployment?

      In Jan 2007 unemployment in Ireland was 4.5%. Even with this roaring recovery you're talking about, unemployment in Ireland is at 9%. That's double than before the crisis hit. The UK unemployment rate is at 5%.

      So you'll find a lot of people in Ireland may not see things as rosy as you do.

      Happy to help.

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    3. Funny you should mention Ireland, as I have family there.

      The only thing they cannot understand is why we are not Independent already and, even given their recent fiscal problems, would never even consider giving up their own Independence.

      The Irish economy is on track to out-perform the UK's for years to come and the Irish have the added bonus of not having Westminster Governments pulling them into International Wars which turn into International Disasters.

      I really envy the future for that wee Country.

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    4. EWC I never started with anything :s However, FYI, the unemployment figures in the UK are a red herring as they count zero hour contracts and part time jobs as employment. That is not an accurate reflection of what is going on in the jobs market and you'll find plenty of unhappy people here in the UK. I can't speak for Ireland.

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    5. Most of the elderly who voted Yes have supported independence for decades,perhaps all their lives.Most of the elderly who voted No have never believed in independence.Fear might keep unionists on board as they age,but is there any evidence to show it will win over supporters of independence as they age?

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  8. The UK is a economic ruin, based on nothing but debt. It is culturally non-existent and morally bankrupt, with a history full of the worst atrocities. The people who support the UK are fools, it is a relic of the past and a symbol or archaism that needs to be crushed. The head of state is used to keep up the charade that the class divide need exist. It must come to an end.

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    1. Unionists are natural, subservient cap-doffers.

      It is a well known genetic trait.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 9:12 PM

      So Herr David you want to doff yer cap tae Herman the German. How you Nat sis hate the English.

      Bratwurst is just sausage with sawdust. Scottish sausage has meat. Mein Gott you Nat sis are traitors tae Scotland.
      ,German sausage has sawdust.aq

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    3. Away n play with yourself somewhere else, Onanist. You are not welcome here.

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    4. Wonderful watching the pale wee faces of the cap-doffing, Westminster sycophants, as the Unionist Parties are stumbling along, about 30'odd points behind the only REAL Party of Scotland.

      Unionists are natural, subservient cap-doffers.

      It is a well known genetic trait.


      For someone who constantly blares out how much they love their country, you certainly seem to hate half the people who live in it.

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    5. I tend to dislike those people in my Country of Scotland, who refuse to acknowledge that it is, indeed, a Country in its own right and who think that its self-determination should be subservient to being under Westminster control.

      I think they are profoundly wrong.

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    6. I think you are mistaken anon, polls show only 17% would vote to join the UK union today. That's why devo max has support of up to 7 in 10. So only 17% are really 'unionists' in that sense. Just because you voted No in September doesn't mean you are an avid unionist. You may be a reluctant one or a devo maxer.

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  9. james. you are very tolerant of the, lord haw haw. convention.

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  10. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 5, 2016 at 11:02 PM

    James , what a strange blog where Anonymous replies for posters.

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  11. During the Scottish referendum the unionists insisted that Scotland would be ejected from the EU if yes prevailed despite no evidence other than gossip and hearsay , yet here we are after voting no on the verge of being ejected from the EU due to the votes of another country . A future of perpetual right wing unfettered Tory and English nationalist government with zero protection for Scottish workers and an offshore sweatshop .

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 6, 2016 at 10:10 PM

      They would not have been ejected but have left on their own accord for leaving the Union which joined. Silly person.

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  12. Unionist actually enjoy being abused by Westminster. They are the Stockholm Syndrome hardliners. They want Scotland to fail. They dream about Scotland failing. They love the Union flag more than they love their fellow Scots. It's a strange attitude to have.

    Would I want to get inside the mind of a self harmer. Probably not. Since the referendum the Tories have treated Scotland like a pariah state. It's odd that support for indi is not 70%. However remember that at least 30% of Scotland don't even view Scotland as a nation. We will not change these people until we get independence. The other 20 % are open to change but it will take a big effort.

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    1. Unionist actually enjoy being abused by Westminster. They are the Stockholm Syndrome hardliners. They want Scotland to fail. They dream about Scotland failing.

      You should sit down and have a word with yourself.

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    2. November13.

      Exactly right. They would gladly slit their own subservient wrists to keep the Butcher's Apron nice and fresh. Meanwhile Cameron and his Eton chums snigger behind the useful unionist idiots' backs.

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    3. Unionist here. You've certainly got my number. Now please excuse me while I masturbate naked in front of my framed portrait of Margaret Thatcher while singing God Save the Queen before breaking into tears.

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    4. I see the yessers are getting themselves even more wound up than usual - I really wouldn't want to be a box of tunnock's tea cakes in their vicinity right now!

      Whether you think Scotland is your country or that Britain is your country - or both - you can't escape financial gravity. Should Scotland become independent, it will need to raise taxes and cut spending - austerity. Pro independence supporters are in favour of austerity. You think yourselves socialists but in practice are economic conservatives well to the right of Margaret Thatcher. By losing the referendum, you avoided your real day of reckoning and are thus still popular - but don't let that mislead you into thinking that your cause is anything other than doomed.

      Aldo

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  13. They just can't see it though. If you institutionaly indoctrinate a nation into believing they need England to breathe. It takes an earthquake to De programme that belief.

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  14. Interesting fester of Yoons blistering on this site, and others, recently.

    Intriguing, this mass eruption of weeping sores all within a similar time-frame punting the same party line and style of non-discourse.

    Here, the trio all-in wrestling team of the barely articulate GWC and supercilious Aldo recently joined by the Morningside wannabe haute Saxe-Coburg-Gotha (Windsor spawned also via Hanover) -EWC.

    If this is not a mass herpes outbreak based on nothing remotely to do with argument based on the cited source-based front, I wonder if it is but one example of a GCHQ funded spannering of multiple personalities ahead of the electoral doing the Unionist diehards face come Holyrood?

    Just curious:)


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    1. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 6, 2016 at 9:16 PM

      David alt Muppet, you do have a propensity for hyperbole and indeed try to express a superior attitude to your fellow working class. We have a name for your likes in Brigton but I will be respectful and not mention it.

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    2. Hi shit-for-brains. Haven't been on the page for a while so thought I'd pop over and see if you were still peddling the same mince. Thanks for not disappointing me.

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