Thursday, November 12, 2015

Maintaining a pro-independence majority at Holyrood must be the overwhelming priority for Yes supporters

In the wake of today's press release from RISE, which optimistically seeks to persuade us that SNP votes on the list will be wasted but that votes for a party that is currently on 0% of the list vote will not be, the Twitter user 'B!G R4Y' said this -

"Yep. Read a number of different opinions. Obs want pro YES 2 get as many seats as poss. How 2 do that."

Is the desire for pro-Yes to get as many seats as possible as "obvious" as it seems? Supposing the effect of some SNP supporters "tactically" switching to the Greens or RISE on the list is as follows -

The probability of a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament is reduced from 80% to 75%

The probability of pro-independence parties taking at least 85 out of 129 seats is increased from 5% to 10%


The percentage probabilities are illustrative only, but there are very sound reasons for thinking that "tactical voting" by Yes supporters will somewhat reduce the chances of a pro-Yes majority. The whole strategy takes a punt on the smaller parties doing well enough to take multiple seats in each region (which is actually very unlikely), and simultaneously bets the house on the idea that the SNP won't need any list seats at all to maintain their majority (which they may well do - they needed at least twelve list seats to make up the constituency shortfall in the 2011 landslide).

So what is the logical thing to do? People who are fixated on the Mission Impossible of completely eradicating unionism in Scotland over the next six months would probably say that only the top-end figure matters, and that if "tactical voting" increases the chances of there being 85 or more pro-independence MSPs, we have to go for it. In reality, of course, what really matters is maintaining a pro-independence majority, and there's no rational reason at all to put that at risk in pursuit of an improbable dream. There is nothing we could do with 85 pro-independence MSPs that we couldn't do with 68. But there's a hell of a lot that we wouldn't be able to do if we slip to just 63, and lose our majority. We're in danger of becoming infatuated with something that would simply be a lovely bonus, and losing sight of the real prize.

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70 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Yep. SNP/SNP worked last time.
      Why risk splitting the vote?

      Delete
  2. I have to say that the more I learn about the Green Party, the less I like it. I used to think I was SNP/Green, now I realise SNP/SNP is a better choice. That however, means I have to be an SNP member and I speak my mind - whether the SNP leadership likes it or not.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 8:09 PM

    Why maintain a party in Holyrood that talks about the poor and does nothing with its powers to alleviate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Didn't take you long to get your worthless opinion in.

      Delete
    2. He's an idiot out to antagonise, don't bother with him.

      Delete
    3. What "powers", name and explain them. Stop parroting bullshit Labour gobits.
      And eat your cereal.

      Delete
  4. What 'educated' word would you use to describe Glasgow working class? There is a word for people who irritate and then feed of the annoyance of others.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 8:34 PM

    Anon. That is three in a row, talkin tae yerself! Need help call the Nat si helpline open circa 19 September 2014. Individual councilling available. No flags please.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Brilliant demonstration of your ability to think outside the box. Ever consider that the posts are from separate people? Lol.

      Delete
    2. GWC bores me beyond description.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 8:54 PM

      Aye a dae ken that, duh, but there is only wan Glasgow Wurkin Class, lol.

      Delete
    4. It's annoyingly difficult to not want to correct him though. Which is stupid because that is exactly what he wants. Perhaps better targeting of my efforts is in need.

      Delete
    5. What are you on about GWC? Do tell us a bit more about yourself, who pays your wages for being on here?

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 8:59 PM

      bjsalba, I hope you are not asking for me tae dae ye a favour! I am a merrit man. Stick tae the politics if ye can. I know you Nat sis do not have any original thinking but do try. Signed Wullie Wallace

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 9:11 PM

      Anon. Do tell me about yourself and your various alias's. If there is more than one then Scotland is really fooked. The DWP keep me in the lifestyle I am accustomed tae.

      Delete
    8. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 9:29 PM

      I hate Scottish people. Scottish people are scum. English people are superior. I want tae be English, but cannae speak proper English so they reject me. Call me sweaty sock an that. Laugh at us behind ma back.

      Sometime I cry aboot it. Rest o the time I lash oot at Scottish people on the interweb. Wan o they physiologists telt me it an expert guy called Freud called it 'projection'.

      Delete
    9. Ooooh. What a smell. Has someone farted in this lift?

      Eat your cereal troll.

      Delete
    10. Go on GWC reveal yourself. Who is paying you to be on here?

      Delete
  6. James please can you run a poll on getting rid of GWC. I think I have figured him out. He is an alcoholic. He needs to seek help and we really don't want to listen to his inebriated self loathing.

    P.S SNP 1st and 2nd. Keep the movement together. Why gamble on an unknown party and outcome.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Farting when amongst Nat sis is a breath of fresh air.

    ReplyDelete
  8. James please can you run a poll on getting rid of GWC. I think I have figured him out. He is an alcoholic. He needs to seek help and we really don't want to listen to his inebriated self loathing.

    P.S SNP 1st and 2nd. Keep the movement together. Why gamble on an unknown party and outcome.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I wish everyone would stop all this nonsense about who and how and tactics etc. Vote the way you feel is right for yourself and never ever ever vote tactically. I'll probably vote snp, green maybe I might vote snp snp who knows see how I feel. Don't ever do something which doesn't sit right. That's the most important thing above all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 11:21 PM

      You are a sad Tory that cannot admit it so you go for the Nat sis or Greens. The working class abandoned by the petty Bourgeoisie. Hic supp yer claret.

      Delete
    2. What a bizarre chap you are, please don't engage in conversation with me again. I'll certainly not be acknowledging your presence again.

      Delete
    3. Go on GWC, reveal yourself. Who pays you to be on here?

      Delete
  10. Tactical voting for Green in the Euros to stop UKIP got us ..... UKIP. It split he anti-UKIP vote when a few less absconders from SNP would have prevented it. James is right that the smaller parties will get, unsurprisingly, a small number of votes, unlikely to be enough to trouble the returning officers, and the fact that such votes are going to be split between three parties can only make it worse.

    Keep your eyes on the prize. In this case, the downside of no majority is much more likely than the upside of an even bigger majority.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I was on the fence about my list vote until the SNP published who their candidates were.
    I don't think the SNP's majority is realistically under threat so I'll be voting Green in my region because I'd like John Finnie to keep his seat. I'd also vote Green if I was in Lothian because I can think of few people that I'd rather have in Parliament than Andy Wightman.

    Most people on here will probably already have made up their minds, but if any of you have yet to decide then you should definitely have a look at who the candidates are in your region.
    https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/snp-releases-candidate-lists-ahead-2016-election
    https://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/scottish-greens-confirm-regional-lists-for-holyrood-2016/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a pity Andy Wightman isn't first on the list. He doesn't have a great chance of being elected.

      Delete
    2. It is a pity, but I do think he's in with a shout. The Greens have a very strong support base there, he'll probably attract a sizable personal vote and I'd guess that a good chunk of Margo MacDonald's vote from 2011 will go to them.

      It's definitely not set in stone, but I wouldn't bet against it.

      Delete
  12. A post I did on Wings tonight...
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    Hi Lesley-Anne.

    RE: the Bella Caledonia article.

    There has been much jabberin', over the past few months, in favour of trying to tactically vote in the regional vote.

    Both Rev Stu and James Kelly have pointed out the pitfalls in this. So I thought I would play about with the figures from today's TNS poll.

    I have left the constituency vote 'as is' but provide three examples of different figures in the regional vote. The thing to bear in mind that the regional votes, to be effective, would ALL have to go to the same party - there's no point in the regional votes being spread amongst Greens, RISE and Solidarity.

    The question then arises: who is going to assume the right to tell us where our regional vote should go? After all, they've all got to go to the same party.

    I've seen examples on Facebook that go along the lines of, "If 50% of the SNP regional vote is 'lent' to the Greens, then we'll have a pro-indy majority in Holyrood, post 2016".

    It always seems to be that those promoting these ideas always suggest that it should be SNP voters who switch in the regional vote, because, I guess, they're a given as 'pro-indy'. This to me is the soft option. If we want a pro-indy majority in Holyrood, why should it matter whether it's SNP or a coalition of parties?

    BECAUSE WE NEED AN SNP MAJORITY TO CUT OUT OVEN DOUBT!

    So this first graphic shows the unaltered figures from the TNS poll. As you can see, the SNP have 71 constituency seats and 6 regional seats, giving a total of 77. A majority.

    http://i.imgur.com/nFXrLxc.png

    The next graphic shows what would happen if 50% of SNP voters voted Green in the regional vote. (I know - highly unlikely but that's what's being bandied about on Facebook.) You can see that the Greens increase to 27 seats, while the SNP drop to 71 (no regional seats) and Labour drop from 33 to 23. The fact that there is an increase in pro-indy MSP's makes not an ounce of difference; the SNP still have a majority, albeit, reduced by the increase in Greens. Do the SNP and Greens see eye to eye on EVERYTHING?

    http://i.imgur.com/BCd3h4R.png

    Why should the Greens be looking for votes from a pro-indy party? Would it not make more sense to target the other substantial percentage, ie, Labour voters? Now, if the tactical voting lobby were to suggest targeting the regional vote of Labour voters, what would be the result, if 50% 0f Labour voters 'lent' their regional vote to the Greens?

    The SNP would lose 1 regional seat, Labour would be reduced to 17 and the Greens would have 20.

    http://i.imgur.com/K2dYkWN.png

    So we still have,
    A. An SNP majority
    B. A pro-indy majority of 96
    c. A reduction in Unionist MSP's.

    What's the point in trying to reduce an SNP majority?

    As has been stated in the past, it is impossible to organise tactical voting in the regional vote. Tactical voting only works in a 'first past the post' vote. Next May, the strategy is simple…

    If you're an SNP member/voter/supporter, you vote SNP constituency and region.

    However, if you're a member/voter/supporter of another pro-indy party, you may LEND your vote to the SNP, if your own party is not standing in your constituency. You then vote for your own party, or whatever, in the regional vote.

    It is pointless to attempt to make SNP voters NOT vote SNP.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 13, 2015 at 12:11 AM

      I would say it was very important to not vote for the Tartan Tories.

      Delete
    2. The Labour man wants you to shut up and eat your cereal.

      Delete
  13. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 12, 2015 at 11:48 PM

    Oh aye a wee bit of Nat si anti semetic activity going on in the Nat si ranks. Who is Sandra Whyte I ask. Should it be Nat si or Nazi.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 13, 2015 at 12:08 AM

    I hate Scotland. I want tae be English or maybe Jewdiaish. That and UKIP cause a hate Scots and Palestinians.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 13, 2015 at 12:16 AM

    James. Strange impersonation of me above mentioning Jew. Do not delete of course. I am not into deleting. But nice to know the mindset of some on here.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 13, 2015 at 12:21 AM

    James. It is I, LeClerc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nah, it's Tyler Durden.

      Delete
  17. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 13, 2015 at 12:25 AM

    In fact James, please do not allow posts by my moniker involving the term 'Nat si' or 'Nazi' until this matter is resolved.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll knows this because Tyler knows this.

      Delete
  18. Do you think GWC is McTernan? He used to go on drunken rants in the early hours on his twitter!

    ReplyDelete
  19. I admit I was seriously thinking of SNP/Green next year, but all this behind the scenes manouvering and attempts to poach soft SNP voters has put me off. Why not target the Labour party, which is haemorrhaging support at the moment - surely there are a few soft unionist votes to pick up there? Sorry to say, but the Greens have been a major disappointment, and have done nothing to convince me of giving them my vote this time round.

    ReplyDelete
  20. "People who are fixated on the Mission Impossible of completely eradicating unionism in Scotland over the next six months"

    Sounds like a wager to me!

    In all seriousness, I am very much in the "get as many pro-indy seats as possible" category, but I think that tactical voting is entirely the wrong way to go about it. Why?

    Because according to the TNS poll, 43% of Scots are voting for a unionist party of some form or another (Red 25%, Blue 11%, Yellow 5%, Purple 2%). If we’re to win the next referendum, we have to convince as many people to support independence, right? Well, how are we going to do that if they keep voting for unionist parties? Why on earth are we divvying up the 57% pro-independence list votes we have when there's such a huge chunk of voters still voting for a unionist party?

    All of us pro-independence supporters, be it SNP, Greens, SSP, RISE, Solidarity, or independents, should concentrate on wiping the unionist parties from the face of Scotland. The only sure-fire way to do that is to get as many people voting for a pro-independence party as we can. We've already hacked down the red party's vote within a few short years: surely we can keep going before we hit the bottom?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. People keep voting for Unionist parties because people in the media tell them how lucky we are to be part of the Union and how disastrous it would be to leave.

      These people are allowed to do this because they hold Government positions at Holyrood, put their by the electorate. For the last 3 years we have had one pro Independence view to every three Unionist views. This can only change if you change the pecking order at Holyrood ..with a pro Indy opposition as well as a pro Indy Government.

      The worst that can happen is a minority SNP Government having to compromise on Government policy outside Independence but an overwhelmingly pro Independence parliament in terms of numbers and media exposure.

      If you get that media exposure you get Unionists to look at the question again..

      Delete
  21. I am frankly tempted to vote SNP/Labour. That may appear self-defeating but the two objectives would be a) contirbute towards a pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament (most of which will be made up of constituency MSPs) and b) to support and strengthen Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the UK labour party by averting significant further regression in Scotland. Whether Scotland becomes independent in the short to medium term or not, it has an interest in ensuring that England does not shift ever further to the right, supporting Corbyn is a means of helping to ensure that.

    OK, shot fired. Come at me!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you already shot yourself. :-)

      Delete
    2. I may be wrong, but I really don't think a landslide defeat in Scotland is going to destabilise Corbyn very much, because it's largely 'factored in' already. Bad results in the London mayoral election and the Welsh Assembly would be much more harmful for him.

      Delete
    3. Scottish Labour is just a branch office taking orders from London. That would maybe be fine if Corbyn had asserted himself on becoming leader, based on his popular mandate among party members and potential voters. He needed to be decisive and immediately take the party machine by the scruff of the neck and give it a damn good shake. But he failed to take advantage of this limited opportunity and so in all likelyhood will be slowly 'digested' by the Labour establishment.

      That given, anyone with genuine radical tendencies in Scotland should leave the sinking ship of 'Scottish' 'Labour' and either support the SNP, or if they're simply Tainted Tartan Tories in your eyes, then join one of the radical indy parties. Are they not your natural home?

      Delete
  22. It seems like the only way not to split the pro yes vote and safely draw away SNP list votes would be if the SNP were not standing on the list and asking the approx 50% planning on voting SNP to vote for another pro Indy party.

    That's not happening. The SNP are on the list.

    ReplyDelete
  23. If you take the long view then an outright win next year for the SNP / pro indy parties is a wasted win. A bit like having an incredibly fast car and no roads on which to drive it, the SNP will have control of the parliament but will not realistically be able to call a second indyref so soon after the first. However, they will increasingly 'own' the problems that have arisen under their stewardship. SNP fatigue will creep in (Tony Blair was still PM when the SNP took the helm). The left will become frustrated at the lack of wealth redistribution / inevitable green light for fracking. The nationalists will become frustrated with the lack of an indyref - lots of promises and threats, but never any action.

    All this sets up a genuinely competitive contest for 2021 / 2019 or whenever the next Holyrood election again is going to be held.

    That's another thing - 6 months out from the election, shouldn't the term of office be clarified?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "All this sets up a genuinely competitive contest for 2021 / 2019 or whenever the next Holyrood election again is going to be held."

      Yes, of course it does, Aldo. The long-deferred Scottish Tory recovery is just around the corner (again).

      Delete
    2. I'm not talking about the tories James. If SNP+Green+RISE < 65, the game's up - certainly as far as indy is concerned, for the duration of that parliament. It would be very easy for this to happen - a modest Labour and Lib Dem recovery would virtually guarantee it.

      Of course, it is still highly likely the SNP would emerge as the biggest single party. The unionists could leave them in office in the hope they will fail or take the initiative, grab the crown, and spend the next 5 years showing the Scottish people that the UK can work and UK supporting parties are worth the shoe leather.

      Either way, no pro indy majority means no indy.

      Delete
    3. Aldo, we established many months ago that, inside your head, the pro-independence movement is doomed. When the real world comes into line with the interior of your head, you will have our congratulations, but not until then.

      Delete
    4. Somehow I don't see you congratulating me James, when the SNP comes tumbling from their pedestal. You're more likely to shout at me to eff off lol.

      Delete
    5. Doubtless you've reached that intriguing conclusion by observing the many occasions I've used the F word before. Oh wait...

      Delete
    6. Tories have been waiting for a Scottish revival since what, 1959?

      Been all down hill since their peak in 1955.

      Anyway, I'm sure it's just around the corner.

      Delete
  24. Aldo just because you wish for something. Does not mean it will happen, and nor does it mean people will fall into your line of thinking. You are a victim of your own incarceration as a result of your bitter prejudice.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Very pro Indy,and totally against fracking.SNP stance on fracking caused me great concern.A moratorium is no way a ban,especially when they permit test drilling to start the next day.What sort of public health impact study are they rushing through,with apparently v few if any public health experts involved( or sorry,maybe ones paid for by the industry itself).How can they allow the industry to decide the buffer zone themselves?
    Campaigned for SNP last election- don't feel I can trust them now.Not sure how to vote.Feel betrayed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The single issue which should concentrate your mind is independence. After independence you can vote for whoever you want, and if they have a majority you should get what they promise. I disagree with huge swathes of SNP policy. But I want independence way more than any disagreement. So there is only one way to vote. So I suggest you argue your position from within, and continue to vote for the only party capable of delivering independence.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 14, 2015 at 12:35 AM

      UKIP.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 14, 2015 at 12:50 AM

      Anon, you were probably a socialist until you came under the spell off wee Nicola and Kim Yung Eck. Sad man on a train now. FUCK THE POOR.
      You can turn back ye know fae the narroback Nat sis.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 14, 2015 at 12:55 AM

      NAT SIS are against any issue raised by complainants then have a morotorium and a taskk force. Then it goes all quiet! Do you get it yet Anon!

      Delete
    5. Eat your cereal, you confused little troll. The grown-ups are talking.

      Delete
    6. Thanks for replies.I am no troll,v far from UKIP.
      You cannot want indy more than me but I cannot blindly vote ignoring fact a certain puppet master seems to be dangling our Energy Secretary - and others-on a string,manipulating his every move.SNP need to realise certain ministers are haemorrhaging them votes.And I cannot understand how anyone who loves Scotland is advocating not giving a vote to Andy Wightman- that is one vote that is absolutely certain.

      Delete
  26. Obvious troll is obvious.

    Must try harder 1/10.

    ReplyDelete
  27. People keep voting for Unionist parties because people in the media tell them how lucky we are to be part of the Union and how disastrous it would be to leave.

    These people are allowed to do this because they hold Government positions at Holyrood, put their by the electorate. For the last 3 years we have had one pro Independence view to every three Unionist views. This can only change if you change the pecking order at Holyrood ..with a pro Indy opposition as well as a pro Indy Government.

    The worst that can happen is a minority SNP Government having to compromise on Government policy outside Independence but an overwhelmingly pro Independence parliament in terms of numbers and media exposure.

    If you get that media exposure you get Unionists to look at the question again..

    ReplyDelete
  28. I might vote green on the list haven't decided. I'm a member of the snp so will only do so in my region if I think the vote us wasted..it's the obvious thing to do if you support snp as I do but fear the list vote for them could let in a unionist...will keep an open mind and if I think realistic possibility of snp getting a list seat then I'll vote for them...else green.

    ReplyDelete