Friday, October 17, 2014

SNP notch up astonishing 17% lead in Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls

I'm in a mad rush this afternoon, but I thought I'd give you a lightning-quick Poll of Polls update, because once again it makes for rather pleasant reading.  It's based on the Scottish subsamples from ten GB-wide polls - four from YouGov, two from Populus, one from Survation, one from Ashcroft, one from ICM and one from Ipsos-Mori.

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :

SNP 42.1% (-0.7)
Labour 24.9% (-2.1)
Conservatives 18.2% (+2.5)
Liberal Democrats 6.4% (-0.6)
UKIP 5.1% (+0.8)
Greens 2.6% (+0.5)

(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

There is a full-scale Scottish poll out today from TNS-BMRB, but it's of no use for the Poll of Polls because it doesn't have any voting intention figures (either for Westminster or Holyrood). There are some interesting findings, however, and I'll hopefully be able to do some analysis soon.

38 comments:

  1. After the pensioners cost us our freedom I was gutted. I mean absolutely gutted. I was angry and I was in despair. Now I can see that the referendum really was the end of the beginning. The beginning of a process that will lead to an independent Scotland.

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  2. It's looking increasingly likely that the unionists parties will have to come up with some kind of alliance if they are to stop the SNP from stealing all their seats at the General Election.

    Wonder if Labour will start asking some of their supporters to vote Tory, oh boy, that will make my day, can't wait!

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  3. Those sort of figures would give the SNP 40-45 MPs - mouthwatering stuff!

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  4. Anon

    Not all pensioners voted no, most of my pensioner voting friends voted Yes . More well to do households voted No than working class areas and will soon regret voting No.

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  5. 'After the pensioners cost us our freedom I was gutted.'

    A few harsh winters before the next referendum should sort that problem.

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  6. I have to wonder if the Green vote figure is accurate after the recent surge in membership. I'd really like to see the Greens overtake UKIP for a start.

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  7. The SNP where consistently a head of labour in the polls up February 2010, I think we will likely see a narrowing leading upto May, with SNP getting most votes, but maybe not the seat gain many suggest.

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  8. At first I was angry with the oldies for voting No, but as time has passed, I haven't met any of them. The oldies I know voted Yes, so who did actually vote No?
    I think i'm turning into a postal vote conspiracy believer.

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  9. I just hope the 80,000 odd SNP members can affect some differential turnout....things could get especially interesting if the turnout is somewhere between the last GE and the indyref figure!

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  10. TNS-BMRB poll data release only covered Q1 and Q4 in their poll. I'd guess that VI figures are being kept back for the weekend. (Somewhat dated fieldwork though - 28 Sep - 4 Oct).

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  11. We should not get too excited. Labour will get their grey vote out at the GE , the media are already doing their part with debates. We will need to work a lot harder to break the unionist Westminster hold in Scotland.

    Bruce

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  12. Why should we demonise pensioners? I think if you fight and live through world wars, been a part of the miners strike, and stood against thacher in poll tax marches, you have every right to vote how you feel, with issues concerning pensioners such as change in demographics and effect that will have in funding pensions I think its only natural they would vote to preserve there own interests. Plus I don't think its a natural progression that the battle will be won in say 10 years time once a lot of this generation dies off. As people get older there is a swing towards being more conservative, most torrie and ukip voters are pensioners.

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  13. I think some one should get lord Ashcroft to do a poll of all Scottish seats early next year, will be a more accurate way to judge how increase snp vote will result in more seats gains. although national polls point to tories and labour being very close, lord Ashcroft polls of marginal seat suggest at big swing to labour in these areas.

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  14. The SNP where consistently a head of labour in the polls up February 2010

    Not in the polls I have. Do you have different ones?

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    1. I checked a TNS one today from Feb 2010, labour at snp both on about 33% with labour just ahead, the company said it was the first time labour had polled ahead of snp in six months, I took it for granted as didn't have any time to check others.

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  15. "I think some one should get lord Ashcroft to do a poll of all Scottish seats"

    He's planning to do a poll of Scottish seats currently held by Labour, quite soon.

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  16. differential turn out will kick in and the "grey vote" won't vote ,The real question is will it be sustained ,there is enough data to say that this swing is real enough ,but in the run up to the GE will it swing back
    It really depends on what happens with Smith and all the infighting with the unionists (thanks Gordy) but also the prospect of Ukip getting a foothold and the tories forming a coalition with them ,All of these will have an influence and will be interesting to see how hard the SNP vote is ,If people see it as the only way we can get away from the London parties then we might see this lead sustained and even added to as the labour and lib dem vote collapses with the FTP system it just needs an SNP vote of over 35 % to make it a landslide

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  17. No doubt the Labour vote will come out, in the hope of preventing a Tory government, but it is self-defeating.
    The SNP need to illustrate that if they were the third largest party come May 2015 in a hung parliament they would wield a lot of power for the people of Scotland.
    Alex Salmond as Deputy PM anyone? lol

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  18. If only.....if only Salmond had given way to Nicola a year ago, we'd be in that Promised Land. It breaks my heart.

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    1. wee jock poo-pong mcplopOctober 17, 2014 at 8:20 PM

      What??? How do you make that out then?

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  19. I disagree, Anon. I have a number of "what ifs" about the campaign, but that isn't one of them. Alex Salmond was an enormous asset. If anything, my concern is that he's resigned too soon, but time will tell.

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  20. @anon.

    Cannae find that Feb one; TNS archive gives me tables for what looks like a UK poll which has SNP on at best 30% in Scotland (subject to MoE).

    October 2009 (around same time from 2010 as we are from 2015):

    39% Lab
    25% SNP
    18% Con
    12% Lib

    SNP in the end lost tactically to the Libs and a bit to Labour.

    They were never ahead of Labour from my records; a few polls had them closer before they lost the tactical vote as people panicked at the return of the Tories. Better North British El Gordo than the return of the Tories.

    Anyway, the tactical vote was a great success and gave Scotland a Tory government.


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  21. @Anon

    Checked MORI. They had a couple of neck and necks in 2009 very briefly; that's maybe where you got it from.

    Certainly, SNP have never out-polled Labour by the margins we are apparently seeing before for Westminster. Likewise Labour apparently dropping below 30% is pretty much unheard of.

    Anyway, this surge dates back to 2011. It's not actually new. Only in Yougov is it manifesting more strongly now. In 2011 SNP were ahead for Westminster by similar figures. Then things became close to even 12-13, before Labour started to drop back again. Drop had accelerated since the iref with SNP benefiting.

    And no wonder. Labour fighting tooth and nail against more devolution. Only today we hear how Broon is dead against full control of income tax and instead wants Scots MPs voting on English matters which requires no more devo of any significance.

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  22. This lead can be kept if ALL the new members and online activists get knocking doors and start speaking with folks.

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  23. It will be MSM mark 11,tory v labour come 2015

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  24. The English BritNats who registered their aunties and uncles o vote will also vote by proxy or postal vote for any party that is not the SNP, so they'll take a hit.

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  25. Anon @ 7:48
    Salmond resigning ahead of the referendum probably wouldn't've done much good, and would have deprived the Yes campaign of someone who has an extremely good track record of winning elections.

    But I do think he should've promised not to stand for re-election in the event of a Yes - i.e. he would stay during the negotiations, and resign in 2016. That would've neutralised those who were voting No because they thought a Yes would give him such a boost that they'd never get him out of office.

    I suggested that a number of times during the campaign and never heard a good argument against it.

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  26. Orange Order ignites SNP over Union

    THE SNP yesterday said it "looked forward" to a debate on the constitution, after the Orange Order revealed it is to campaign for the Nationalists' opponents at the next General Election in a bid to boost the unionist vote...

    ...Michael MacMahon, the Labour MSP for Hamilton North and Bellshill, and a Catholic, said that he welcomed the support. He said: “I have a good relationship with the Orange Order. They understand the importance of the Union and they understand the threat.”


    Some lovely folks on the pro-union / Labour side. 'Catholic and Irish haters / Irish flag burners for the union'. Makes you so proud.

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  27. Rise of UKIP can only boost the SNP. Firstly because they are English nationalist turbo thatcherite, and second because they create a 'Well if England is voting anti-big three, so are we' situation.

    Comres are now looking at prompting for them and this I understand is the result:

    Comres (Prompted for UKIP):
    LAB – 31% (-4)
    CON – 29% (=)
    UKIP – 24% (+5)
    LDEM – 7% (=)
    GRN – 5% (+1)

    Comres (No UKIP prompt):
    LAB – 34% (-1)
    CON – 31% (+2)
    UKIP – 19% (=)
    LDEM – 7% (=)
    GRN – 4% (=)

    53% uber right nutter combined. Aye Scotland, that's what you voted No for. Having second thoughts maybe?

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  28. Rise of UKIP can only boost the SNP. Firstly because they are English nationalist turbo thatcherite, and second because they create a 'Well if England is voting anti-big three, so are we' situation.

    Comres are now looking at prompting for them and this I understand is the result:

    Comres (Prompted for UKIP):
    LAB – 31% (-4)
    CON – 29% (=)
    UKIP – 24% (+5)
    LDEM – 7% (=)
    GRN – 5% (+1)

    Comres (No UKIP prompt):
    LAB – 34% (-1)
    CON – 31% (+2)
    UKIP – 19% (=)
    LDEM – 7% (=)
    GRN – 4% (=)

    53% uber right nutter combined. Aye Scotland, that's what you voted No for. Having second thoughts maybe?

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  29. The prompting for UKIP didn't make much difference in the Scottish sub-sample (they were only on 4% in Scotland when prompted). Both sub-sample results were broadly in line with James' poll of poll results above.

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  30. The prompting for UKIP didn't make much difference in the Scottish sub-sample (they were only on 4% in Scotland when prompted). Both sub-sample results were broadly in line with James' poll of poll results above.

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  31. The opinion polls are looking good at the moment for the pro-indy group regarding Westminster. This may change or stay the same. It all depends on whether the westminster GE 2015 race looks tight or not in the Spring. If Labour are with in a shouting match I expect people in Scotland will vote Labour, acknowledging that it is a pro-union party. I don't like it, but there you go, everybody has an opinion and we still live in a "democracy" where significant parties are not allowed a view on TV debates...

    However if their lead / support collapses in the UK over the winter (which I think will happen because they are too close to the tories in policy), I'd expect the SNP etc numbers to remain solid- better to send 40 SNP than 40 Labour to the UK parliament to bargain our case.

    I would say that having a pro-devo Max or pro YES alliance would be a handy card to have to ensure that every tight contest is that and we scare the wits out of them. What we need is solidarity with the third sector & civic scotland to carry through radical changes to the UK & Scotland

    BTW I am Thomas William Dunlop, not a troll or anon.

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  32. But how do you organise a pro-Yes alliance? There isn't a seat in Scotland where either the Greens or the SSP have a better chance of winning than the SNP. Indeed, there isn't a seat in Scotland where either party has a hope in hell, full stop, as far as I can see.

    So it comes down in practice to these parties, both having a lot of new members, standing aside to back the SNP. Would they do this? Would their activists stand for it? Would the voters stand for it come to that?

    It's an attractive idea, but I'm struggling to see how it can actually be put into practice.

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    1. I am a green minded socialist, with no affiliation to any party, but there is no way I will ever vote SNP, workclass people voted yes due to the ideas of radical independence not the neo liberal ideas of snp, to vote for them in a pro independence alliance would be putting aside ones morals.

      Daryl Philip.

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    2. Daryl : I'm a social democrat, and if I thought the SNP were neoliberals I wouldn't vote for them, let alone be a member of the party (which I am).

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  33. Rolfe, although I'm becoming less optimistic about an alliance happening, the obvious incentive for the Greens would be the full backing of the SNP machine in at least one winnable seat (any agreement would be bound to include the Greens being given a crack at one or more SNP target seats). There's no other way there'll be a Scottish Green MP after May.

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  34. Snp are neo-liberal. Jesus Christ, heard it all now.

    For the record, I am an SNP member and there is no way on earth I would vote for any green candidate.

    See Martin Ford for my reasons why. I stay in Aberdeenshire.

    I can't see a Yes Alliance working as many SNP people just wouldn't vote Green. If a Green candidate has a good chance of winning, then so does the SNP candidate

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