Sunday, December 29, 2013

Fascinating Panelbase poll suggests that English, Welsh and Northern Irish voters are firmly behind the SNP's plans for an independent Scotland to remain part of the sterling zone

I wasn't really expecting any referendum-flavoured opinion polls between Christmas and New Year, but one has arrived just the same, and it's proved to be something of a festive setback for McDougall's merry mob. Contrary to the anti-independence campaign's curious belief that England is exclusively composed of stroppy teenagers who will take their ball away and refuse to play anymore if Scotland dares to govern itself, it turns out that voters south of the border are actually rather adult, and are overwhelmingly in favour of the sensible proposals for an independent Scotland to remain part of both the sterling zone and the passport-free Common Travel Area (which currently comprises Scotland, the Republic of Ireland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the Bailiwicks of Jersey and Guernsey).

Here are the full findings...

Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are among each other's largest trading partners. Putting aside your own views on whether or not Scotland should become an independent country, if independence does happen do you think that Scotland and the rest of the UK should continue using the pound in an agreed sterling area?

Yes (either 'Yes, definitely' or 'Yes, I think so') - 71%
No (either 'Definitely not' or 'No, I don't think so') - 12%

A Common Travel Area has existed since the 1920s which provides for freedom of movement throughout the area for citizens of the UK, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands and Isle of Man. Putting aside your own views on whether or not Scotland should become an independent country, if independence does happen do you think that there should continue to be freedom of movement with no passport controls between England and Scotland?

Yes (either 'Yes, definitely' or 'Yes, I think so') - 75%
No (either 'Definitely not' or 'No, I don't think so') - 12%


Now, I already have a premonition of John Curtice muttering something about 'leading questions', but the fact is that the vast majority of people in England are almost certainly unaware that the Common Travel Area even exists, and so until that is explained they cannot possibly give an informed opinion on whether Scotland should remain a part of it. Likewise, the little-known fact that Scotland is rUK's second-biggest trading partner is the most crucial piece of information for English voters in judging whether it would be in their own interests for Scotland to remain part of the sterling zone. Certainly the discovery that simply pointing this information out is sufficient to produce such huge majorities should be a warning sign for the No campaign and the UK government that their treasured little games have a very limited shelf life ahead of them.

Oh, and I presume this tweet from Ian Smart was intended as a response to the poll -

"So, the overwhelming majority in England is in favour of maintaining the union. Good. So is the overwhelming majority in Scotland."

Just two small objections here -

1) You seem to have unaccountably overlooked the rather crucial phrase 'if independence does happen' in the wording of the poll questions - ie. English voters were expressing a view on what should happen after the dissolution of the union, not on whether the union should be maintained.

2) There is not an 'overwhelming majority' in Scotland opposed to independence. In fact, there is not a majority of any sort in Scotland opposed to independence. According to the current poll average, the No vote stands at just 48.8% - meaning that most people in Scotland are either in favour of independence or are undecided.

But apart from that, what a truly fabulous point, Ian.

2 comments:

  1. BT commissioned a push poll with Yougov. You will find the details on the Herald website.

    I liked the bit on the Panelbase base poll article in the Herald where BT said that the SNP were desperate in doing their own poll. Then you find out BT have done their own poll.

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