Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Stonkingly good Ipsos-Mori poll for the SNP on its way...

The details haven't been published yet, but Angus Macleod has revealed on Twitter that the poll is "devastating" for Iain Gray and Labour. There are also suggestions elsewhere that the projected seat total for the SNP may be 58 - or even higher...

Stay tuned!

13 comments:

  1. If it mirrors the canvassing done then we might have a successful election.

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  2. Constituency Lead.....11%

    Regional List Lead....10%

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  3. Roseanna Cunningham 61 seats for the SNP on Facebook

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  4. Ezio Auditore da Firenze - Alex Salmond for First MinisterApril 21, 2011 at 12:08 AM

    This feels a bit 'too much' for me here in Florence!

    Can't imagine things are looking THAT good?

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  5. Let's not get complacent though. It's easy to peak early, or make fantastical projections, only to find that they spur the opposition to greater efforts, and encourage supporters to be lazy about voting.

    Nonetheless, it is good news.

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  6. Jeff over Better Nation has it as: SNP-62, Lab-44, Con-11, LD-8, Grn-3, Margo-1

    Newsnet Scotland On Const: SNP-40,L-29,C-14,LD-10 / Reg: SNP-38,L-28,C-13,LD-11,G-5. I get seats of SNP-58, L-38, Con-17,LD-13,Grn-3, MM-1

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  7. Didn't the SNP have a large lead in the polls around this time in 2007? And we all know how close that election was...don't necessarily believe this poll folks and definitely do not get complacent.

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  8. John

    No one is being complacent and most polls have shown a shift towards the SNP. Yes the election is still wide open but a 15% Labour lead up untill just a few months back now looks doomed!!

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  9. Let me guess what John Park's comment will be. I predict the phrases "taking the electorate for granted", "fighting for every vote" and "now that the Tories are back" will feature.

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  10. Not forgetting that old favourite "the things that really matter"...

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  11. I think we pretty much got them all. From the Record:

    Labour campaign co-ordinator John Park said: "This is a rogue poll because the results suggested are incredibly unlikely and are wildly different from what our canvass returns and other polls show.

    "This particular pollster is notoriously unreliable in Scotland, predicting the SNP would win double the number of seats they actually did at the last general election. This poll only takes account of those certain to vote so ignores huge swathes of the electorate.

    "The SNP are now guilty of taking voters for granted, declaring the outcome before a single vote has been cast.

    "Now the Tories are back, Labour is fighting hard for what really matters."

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  12. Labour have more sophisticated campaign machinery (voter ID database software; direct mail microtargeting) and so can "get the [core]vote out" in numbers the SNP cant match? i just hope enough libs/cons lend their vote to SNP this time.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microtargeting

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_database

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