First of all, a very happy New Year to all Scot Goes Pop readers, including even KC, who forced me to delete his first "Nessie" post of 2025 before it was 1am. Although this year is slated to be politically quieter than 2024 with no major elections scheduled in the UK (just the usual batch of English local elections in May), it could still be a landmark political year if Reform UK complete the process they seem to have already started, by decisively overtaking the Conservatives in the opinion polls as the leading right-wing party. It occurred to me the other day that, if that happens, it would mean that the original UK two-party system consisting of Tory (and later Conservative) versus Whig (and later Liberal) has finally been completely replaced. Labour supplanted the Liberals as the main party of the left in the 1920s - and it's important to stress there was nothing inevitable about that, because there had earlier been a Lib-Lab electoral pact that could have led to the Liberals co-opting the Labour movement as the new radical wing of a unified centre-left party, but that opportunity was missed. Could history be repeating itself on the right exactly a century later?
One thing that will be causing the Conservatives some alarm is that a couple of days ago Ipsos published head-to-head polling numbers on who would make the best Prime Minister - a question that is often thought to be more predictive of election results than standard voting intention numbers. To reflect the new three-way battle for power, the question was asked in three parts...
Starmer v Badenoch:
Ive said this often but your typical Reform supporter hates immigrants ...this means that their unlikely to gel with anybody not white so Kemi and previously Rishi could be the reason these people have defected to Reform and its conman leader. To them he's a man of the people .... to the rest of us we see him for what he is ...an arsehole playing people against their fears .
ReplyDeleteYou can be sure there are Scottish Labour voters who will be polling as Reform as long as Sarwar is in charge. Farage has always maintained that his support comes from left and right in equal measures.
DeleteThere's also a large segment of the electorate, especially in England fed up with all the main parties as nothing ever changes. A strong anti-establishment sentiment and they're desperate for any kind of change to break the system. Reform are taking advantage of that.
DeleteThere's also a risk if you paint supporters of an individual or a Party a certain way and campaign on essentially portraying them as being the devil that'll massively backfire. Lessons need to be learned from what happened in the US with Trump, as if we repeat the same mistakes the Democrats made that could help Reform.
DeleteReminds me of Labour's Red Wall in England who voted for both Brexit and Boris Johnson. Not the brightest of buttons.
DeleteThis sort of judgemental sneeriness at people who want change is exactly why Reform are doing well.
Delete“Deplorables.”
DeleteHere I am, doing a bit of contemporary satire. What do you think?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G5NArDuK2M
Just for KC:
Deletehttps://c.tenor.com/nMd7buJR3i4AAAAd/tenor.gif
Didn't you suggest this 3-way poll before Christmas? Shouldn't you send them your consultancy invoice?
ReplyDeleteRegarding this KC character, you’d think he’d give it a rest.
ReplyDeleteSuppose the Nessie wise cracks were mildly funny at the start, but they’re well past their sell by date now.
There's more chance of a confirmed sighting of the Yeti than of KC giving it a rest.
DeleteI see you have deleted the tweet about your agency
DeleteHi guys.
ReplyDeleteIn answer to your question in the headline.
Nah.
Problem is nobody believes in politics now.
Might see seats flung around but a massive nobody cares across the board.
That's a really odd comment, and an obviously wrong conclusion. No matter how much or how little people "believe in politics", elections still happen and swings between parties still occur. If you believe that Reform UK will not overtake the Tories within this calendar year, nothing in your comment even begins to explain why.
DeleteI can quite believe Reform will overtake the tories and not a jot will change for the most part.
DeleteThere is politics and there is Politics.
"I can quite believe Reform will overtake the tories"
DeleteIn that case the answer to the question in the headline was not "nah". It was "yes".
Social media uncovers the dweebness of politics which we didn't see pre 2014.
ReplyDeletePost 2014 it's substantially uncool. Everything from the Jon Sopel to the Hoe Rogans are a bit embarrassing to bring up in conversation. That's Scotlanfs biggest problem now. Seen as a bunch of bores, if not with a niche purity test.
Agree not a spul brings up independence or the union for that matter apart from utter dweebs. The days of Salmond are a distant memory. Hopefully comes back.
DeleteFrom the National:
ReplyDelete"Lorna Slater suggests Greens open to new Bute House Agreement after 2026 election"
No no no no no no no no no no nono please God no.
Haven't we seen enough incompetence, waste of money and nonsense at Holyrood already? Never again.
....with Labour? There are no red lines with the Green chancers, remember.
DeleteYes, Slater Harvie and Greer would do deals with the deil to get a ministerial limousine. But the SNP need to firmly shut the door on any coalition nonsense or continue to lose 500,000 voters who stayed away last year.
DeleteOr else they'll switch to Alba lol
DeleteIf it's what the electorate have given as a parliament I see no reason not to do deals.
DeleteI will not return to voting SNP unless another coalition with the Greens is expressly ruled out.
DeleteThat is my red line.
The greens made a real mess of the ferry contract and rowed back on climate undertakings. And fucked up the NHS, albeit less than down south. Oh wait! And the G R Act, the one that had cross party support? Meanwhile on planet reality Farage is in the ascendancy.
DeleteYes many people despair of politics because anything is said to win an election but, in power, the ideological straight jacket of neoliberal unrestrained profit taking means that little ever changes for the better in most peoples lives.
ReplyDeleteThe power of the media, including social media, the law as presently constituted and peer pressure ensures continuation of same. No mainstream political party challenges this except in occasional rhetorical flourishes aimed at squeezing out a few more votes from a jaded electorate.
An independent Scotland would break some aspects of this drab mould just by happening. It would create opportunities, not certainties, for some changes for the better if it was done on a social democratic, "well being economy" basis.
Presently the parties supposedly in favour of independence are badly failing as, in different ways, they fail to achieve escape velocity from the gravity of neoliberal thinking.
Voters in Scotland show in polls that they are ahead of the politicians on this. Too tight a focus on the doings of floundering parties is a waste of effort. We need to have a hybrid strategy of tactical voting and direct action, something which establishment politicians always fear, to move us forward.
New leadership can emerge from this process !
None of this is new but the foul and sticky mud of controlled thinking holds so many back.....
(Also, those who waste space here on hostile spoilers and unfunny humour contribute nothing and should be ignored .)
I don't know much about politics but something I can say for sure is Kemi Badenoch has had a very slow start. Doesn't cut through even when everyone can see Labour are less than popular.
ReplyDeleteHerald article today from Chris McEleny saying stepping down as Alba Party general secretary, prospective leadership thing in March etc etc
ReplyDeleteChris McEleny is resigning when a new leader is announced..according to the email I received today..This can only be good news for ALBA..
ReplyDeleteagreed
DeleteWhat optimists.
DeleteWhat the hell is a White Nationalist?
Delete“Nessie, jocks, Blighty, crivens!” There, is that enough KC for you, ConcernedAnon?
ReplyDeleteBye bye Chris.
ReplyDeleteYou are,
And always were,
A miss