First things first: I have an analysis piece at The National about yesterday's crop of four by-elections, and you can read it HERE.
The results were certainly a mixed bag. Labour's vote was well up in two and well down in the other two. The SNP vote was up in one and down in three. Of the two wards where Reform UK stood, they had a very good result in one and a poor result in the other. The Liberal Democrats had a sensational victory in one, but didn't really trouble the scorer elsewhere.
All you can really do in these situations is look at the average, and the average swing from the SNP to Labour across the four wards was just 2%. Because that's measured from the 2022 local elections when the SNP were twelve points clear of Labour nationally, it points to a Scotland-wide lead for the SNP of eight points - putting them firmly in landslide territory in Westminster terms.
Really the one and only genuinely good result for Labour yesterday was in Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse, which is frustrating because that was also the only ward where the SNP appeared to have a realistic chance of winning. However, even there the swing to Labour was only 8%, rather than the 9% falsely claimed by Anas Sarwar.
It does require an active campaign for Holyrood vote SNP 1 and other independence parties 2. Folk will vote for this.
ReplyDeleteI'm confused by how the SNP can be ahead nationally when they were second in the GE and from the four by elections are behind Labour in every single one. Even the one the Libs romped home in.
ReplyDeleteThese elections are not orkney, they are the sort of seats the SNP should be winning (or at least close) if they are winning nationally surely?
Am I out of line here?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here and assume you're not KC indulging in concern trolling, but the first point you raise is directly addressed by the blogpost you're commenting on. The swing is not measured from the general election, but instead from the 2022 local elections, when the SNP were twelve points ahead of Labour. In two of the wards Labour were ahead of the SNP even in 2022, so no, these are not wards the SNP "should" be winning.
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