Who's an unpopular boy, then? It's all gone wrong for Anas Sarwar, says shock Ipsos poll

Before I forget about it, let's take a quick look at the "Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse" poll that was published last week, because it contains yet more positive straws in the wind suggesting the SNP may now have a good chance of winning in 2026 - or at least "winning" if that is defined as remaining the largest single party and possibly remaining in power without an overall pro-independence majority.  For the uninitiated, the Political Pulse is very different from the regular Ipsos polls for STV, because it's conducted via online polling panel rather than by telephone, and there are no outright voting intention questions.  However it does contain personal ratings for leading politicians, and we know those are often more predictive of election results than standard voting intention questions anyway.

Net ratings of leading politicians (Ipsos, 18th September 2024):

Kate Forbes (SNP): -11

John Swinney (SNP): -11

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -16

Keir Starmer (Labour): -23

Rachel Reeves (Labour): -27

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -47

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -53

OK, these numbers don't exactly demonstrate enthusiasm for the SNP, but you only have to defeat what's put up against you, and both John Swinney and Kate Forbes appear to be considerably less disliked now than any of Labour's top team.  And if you're a bit underwhelmed by the depth of Starmer's unpopularity at -23, remember the fieldwork is already a couple of weeks old and he's almost certainly slipped further since then.  

Other polls asking about leadership in the alternative way, ie. a head-to-head question about who would make the best First Minister, have almost always shown the SNP leader ahead in recent times, regardless of whether that person was Humza Yousaf or John Swinney.  So whichever way you look at it, the question of leadership does still seem to give the SNP a clear edge, even after all their travails and even after losing a phenomenon such as Nicola Sturgeon.

This will probably be the last poll in which Douglas Ross is rated, so it's nice to see him getting such a lovely send-off.  (Or should that say sending-off?)

Just as crucial is that Labour as a whole no longer have a superior rating to the SNP as a whole.  It's essentially level-pegging now with the SNP on -12 and Labour on -13. Respondents also have slightly less confidence in the Labour government's plans for the economy (-37) than they do in the SNP government's plans (-33).

And although the SNP government is perceived as having performed poorly on every policy area that is asked about, the perception of respondents is that Labour would do even worse - with the sole exception of education, where there's a tie between those who think Labour would do better than the SNP and those who think they would do worse.

In all honesty, I think anyone looking at these numbers totally objectively, say an observer from a foreign land, would come to the conclusion that the most likely outcome of the 2026 election is a modest SNP win.  But of course there's still a lot of water to pass under the bridge.

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