Dundee DEVASTATION for Sarwar as SNP humiliate Labour TWICE in by-election double-header - they don't call it Bash Street for nothing

Strathmartine by-election result, first preferences (3rd October 2024):

SNP 35.0% (-10.3)

Liberal Democrats 26.9% (+8.2)

Labour 26.9% (+4.0)

Conservatives 4.2% (-1.7)

Greens 3.6% (+0.2)

TUSC 3.4% (+2.7)

Lochee by-election result, first preferences (3rd October 2024):

SNP 37.3% (-5.9)

Labour 35.6% (-0.2)

Conservatives 6.8% (-1.6)

Alba 5.5% (+2.4)

Greens 5.5% (+1.3)

Liberal Democrats 4.8% (+1.7)

Workers Party of Britain 4.4% (n/a)

Local by-elections are often mainly about symbolism and momentum, but these two really did matter because the SNP's overall majority on Dundee City Council was at stake - and has survived.  In fact Lochee is technically a gain from Labour, although the SNP were defending a lead in both wards from last time around.  The SNP's 1.7% lead on first preferences in Lochee was tight enough that Labour could potentially have won with transfers from other unionist parties - the combined vote for the Tories, the Lib Dems and the Workers Party exceeded the combined vote for the Greens and Alba.  So it's intriguing that it didn't happen, and it'll be interesting to find out why from the detailed numbers.

Can the SNP still be considered to have had good results even though their vote fell?  Yes.  The percentage changes are measured from the 2022 local elections, when the SNP's national lead over Labour in the popular vote was 12.3%.  The average swing from SNP to Labour in the two by-elections was 5%, which would leave the SNP about two points ahead nationally.  That's not too shabby only a few weeks after finishing five points behind Labour at the general election.  In practice it's probably even better than it appears, because the SNP's vote share in local elections is often on the low side compared to other elections.

For the second week in a row, Alba have had an OK-ish result in a by-election, although I suspect that's mainly about improved organisation and a more effective get-out-the-vote effort rather than any increase in Alba's underlying national support, which probably remains at roughly the very familiar 2% level.  Indeed, there's a potential danger in getting half-decent results in low-turnout local by-elections, because Alex Salmond was very quick last week to suggest that Alba's 6% showing in Perth meant that they were on 6% across Scotland and were therefore on course for list seats.  That's plainly not the case, but many Alba members are all too hungry to believe in that kind of statement.  If the party effectively hypnotises itself into thinking a breakthrough is just around the corner, the deep-seated problems that in practice will prevent Alba from winning any list seats at all may not be tackled or resolved.

And it can't go without note that Lochee is yet another election in which the Workers Party of Britain, for which Craig Murray stood at the general election, put up a candidate directly against the Alba Party, of which to the best of my knowledge Craig Murray is also still a member.  Let me reiterate yet again that this is not a jibe against Craig personally, and in fact I have the highest admiration for both his politics and his personal courage.  The point is about Alba itself.  Craig has driven a coach and horses through the most important commandment in the Alba rule-book by standing for a party in direct competition with Alba.  And yet somehow it's as if that never happened - Craig's membership remains untouched and no disciplinary action has been taken against him.  By contrast, my own Alba membership is currently arbitrarily suspended on the whim of one man (Chris McEleny, the non-elected General Secretary), which is preventing me from exercising my right as a paid-up party member to stand in internal elections.  Later this month, I will face a so-called "disciplinary" hearing in which I could be expelled from the party altogether for essentially two things - a) using my elected position on an internal Alba working group to push for democratisation of the party's internal structures in a way that the leadership apparently has no intention of tolerating, and b) making certain limited criticisms of the leadership in posts on this blog.  I am far from being the first member to face this kind of treatment - other expulsions and lengthy suspensions have already occurred.

The double-standard, and the difference of treatment for the favoured and the unfavoured, is blatant.  It's overwhelming proof of a disciplinary machinery that is not functioning as advertised, but is instead being shamelessly abused as a tool to suppress dissent and deter the free expression of views within the party.  I will be taking a stand at the disciplinary hearing and at the likely subsequent appeal hearing, because frankly Scotland has no need of a carbon-copy of the authoritarian party that expelled Grouse Beater for no good reason, that suspended Neale Hanvey for no good reason, and that bullied Denise Findlay into a public resignation for no good reason.  Alba needs to be a lot, lot better than that, otherwise what is the point of it being there?