Sunday, September 22, 2024

Survation poll confirms that Labour have lost their lead in Scotland - and suggests the Scottish public wants Devo Max

When the Opinium poll came out the other day showing the SNP seven points ahead, I did raise the possibility that the SNP might have been flattered due to an Opinium house effect, because a couple of previous Opinium polls had also been unusually favourable.  I didn't think that was likely, but I may have to revisit that verdict because I now realise that a Survation poll also came out on Wednesday and showed the SNP and Labour roughly level-pegging.  Nevertheless, that's still a good news story for the SNP, even if it's on a more modest scale than Opinium.  

I really can't emphasis this enough for people who haven't previously looked at polling trends immediately after a general election.  What would usually be happening at this stage is that there would be considerable novelty surrounding the new government - the people who had elected it would be euphoric, and the people who did not elect it would be influenced by that euphoria and some of them would even start thinking that they made a mistake or were too cautious and should have voted in line with the tide.  That would generally push the winning party further ahead in the opinion polls than they were on polling day.  It's a temporary effect but it can usually be expected to last at least a good few months. 

With the added factor that a lot of people seem to be a bit jaded with the SNP government in Edinburgh, it would have been entirely reasonable to expect a Labour lead over the SNP of anything between about 8 and 20 points at this stage.  Instead, Labour have lost their lead entirely, which speaks volumes about just how dreadful Starmer's first few weeks in office have been, and bodes extremely poorly for Anas Sarwar's hopes of becoming First Minister in two years' time.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation):

SNP 31%
Labour 31%
Conservatives 14%
Reform UK 11%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Greens 3%
Alba 1%

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 31%
Labour 31%
Conservatives 13%
Reform UK 9%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 6%
Alba 1%

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 28%
Labour 26%
Conservatives 14%
Reform UK 10%
Greens 10%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Alba 3%

Seats projection: SNP 40, Labour 39, Conservatives 17, Liberal Democrats 13, Greens 10, Reform UK 10

Survation's data tables round the numbers to two decimal places, and for what it's worth on that measure the SNP have a slight lead across the board: they're 30.93% to 30.76% ahead of Labour on the Holyrood constituency ballot, and 31.16% to 30.80% ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions.

The independence numbers are less good than in the Opinium or More In Common polls, but nevertheless Survation becomes one of three out of four pollsters who in anniversary week have shown the Yes vote higher than it was in 2014.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46%
No 54%

Survation's client for this poll was Progress Scotland, the organisation run by Angus Robertson.  They've taken a leaf out of my book on this occasion - maybe not intentionally, but it's almost identical to something I did in a Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll around four years ago when I asked a simple question about whether Scotland should rejoin the European Union, without specifying whether that would be as an independent country.  I think that's a really useful question, because it forces unionist respondents to answer about what they think should happen to Scotland in particular, rather than the UK as whole, while also allowing them to leave their views on independence to one side.  The pro-European majority this time is even stronger than it was in the Scot Goes Pop poll.

If there was a referendum on membership of the European Union tomorrow, how would you vote on the question: "Should Scotland join the European Union?"

Scotland should join the European Union: 69%
Scotland should not join the European Union: 31%

I know that a non-trivial minority of independence campaigners have misgivings about the EU and hanker after decoupling the independence cause from pro-Europeanism, but when you look at figures like the ones above, it's hard not to conclude that it would be strategically foolish to go down that road, and that if anything, the SNP should be ramping up the pro-EU message and trying to tap into anger about Brexit and Scotland's will being ignored.  Only 20% of Yes voters from 2014 would vote against Scotland joining the EU, while an extraordinary 54% of No voters want back into the EU.

Also encouraging is that by substantial margins, respondents think the Scottish Parliament and not Westminster should have control over pensions, taxation, the cost of living, energy policy, public transport, crime, human rights, employment rights, relations with Europe, the environment, immigration, social security, and the calling of any independence referendum.  The only exceptions, ie. policy areas where respondents prefer Westminster control, are national security and foreign policy - and on the latter the margin is pretty narrow.

In a nutshell, this is a population that strongly favours Devo Max - the genuine type, not the Jackie Bird version.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  The fundraiser page can be found HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

89 comments:

  1. When are we going to get independence polls which only report the numbers from native scots?

    No foreigners will ever be allowed another vote on our country. Not after they betrayed us the last time.

    So why bother counting them?

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    1. Spot the unionist troll.

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    2. When you meet them on marches, you can tell they're not unionists, but not exactly sensible either.

      This isn't the Jim Crow South of the 1960s. We can't deny great chunks of the population the vote, for any made up "ethnic" reason.

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    3. Anon at 9.35am when the UK denied EU citizens the vote in the EU referendum but gave it to the Aussies etc. Was that Jim Crow as well?

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  2. In regards to the EU question, couldn't the Yes side just guarantee that there will be a referendum on the issue after independence?

    Obviously, highlight that Scotland was dragged out of the EU against our will, the anger surrounding that and that the only viable way back in would be via independence. But instead of focusing on a Yes vote meaning rejoining the EU, the emphasis should be on the fact that, with independence the decision would be up to the people of Scotland.

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    1. I don't think that would be enough. If you're going to convince a Remainer who hitherto has been a committed No, you'll need to tell them that the *purpose* of independence is to rejoin the EU.

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    2. That's my reckon, too. For those people not already convinced about independence, you want to be more specific than "well, we can always settle that later on for ourselves."

      I actually consider that very power to be independence's top advantage: the fact that we can always revisit our decisions, at whatever time of our choosing. But I’m in the bag for Yes so by all means target those who are on the fence.

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  3. Devo Max will never be a viable option tbh. The UK Government would perceive that as just being a trap used as a stepping stone towards full independence.

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    1. Absolutely, for the UK Government, it's all about stopping independence, rather than giving voters what they want and what they vote for. But the danger is that the pro-Devo Max majority will realise that voting for independence is the only way of getting what they want.

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    2. It would be just as much of a trap for with in dealing with perfidious Albion. Let’s not forget they gave us specific limited tax powers which they knew would be more of a hindrance than a help. The idiot Mundell actually confirmed thus in discussion that was recorded. Full Independence. Nothing else will work with these dishonest untrustworthy liars.

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    3. Anon at 9.43am - 100% correct. The SNP should have been setting out exactly what extra powers they wanted devolved, when they wanted the powers and how they would be handed over. Instead they just take whatever the Britnats chuck their way. Swinney was absolutely useless in the Smith negotiations.
      The SNP under Sturgeon have been a weak devolution government .

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  4. If those seat projections came to pass what viable Government options would there be?

    SNP + Green leaves them 10 short and it's unlikely any of the unionist Parties will support the SNP remaining in power.

    Labour + Lib Dems + Tories does get them over the line in this poll but in practice how will that work day-to-day and would they be able to agree on a Budget?

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    1. Labour governing from second place due to Tory support would be a public relations catastrophe. They wouldn't be able to hide what was going on.

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    2. There's some polls that don't get Labour + Lib Dems + Tories over the line either.

      Definitely don't see any unionist Party backing the SNP but every alternate under current polling is incredibly messy.

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    3. A really messy Holyrood could be interesting for us. Still calls out for determined leadership, though. Swinney doesn't have it, and the people can't stomach Salmond.

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  5. What is UK Labour & Scots Labour’s position on DevoMax? Or has the SNP’s poor GE result pushed that issue down the list?

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    1. Scots Labour? Does it exist?

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  6. Surely rather than independence being pro or anti Europe it should be neutral? "When we have independence Scotland will decide for itself whether to continue as is or seek to rejoin the European Union."

    It's a weaker statement than either camp would want, but should be acceptable to both, rather than making independence subject to a potentially confounding factor.

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    1. The currency issue would be cleared up if EU.

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    2. Not necessarily the EU requires new member states to adopt the Euro once they meet certain economic and convergence criteria.

      Scotland would likely need to establish its own currency first to align with the necessary economic policies and frameworks before transitioning to the Euro.

      It raises a lot of uncertainties and questions unionists will jump on.

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    3. Anon@5:52pm,
      Ah currency, one of the many important issues the SNP and Yes movement in general have never been able to address in a positive way.

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    4. Are people proposing there would be no referendum on EU membership?

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    5. dislogical 62% of Scotland voted to remain in EU. Probably even more popular. Those advocating a neutral stance = pro brexit status quo.

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    6. What if you feel EFTA should be considered as a viable option?

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    7. Are folk on this post seriously suggesting Bulgaria and Croatia can be in the EU and have the Euro but Scotland couldn't?

      Fuck me. We're a gormless nation at times. No gumption at all.

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    8. Anon at 5.52pm - the EU puts no timescale or conditions on when any new country should take up the euro. So in effect it is NOT mandatory just a statement of preference. It does state conditions that must exist if you want to join.
      This whole currency thing is just a Britnat red herring. As if every country in the world can have a currency but Britnats punt the line it is impossible for Scotland. A perfect illustration of colonialism and its little helpers in Scotland punting this self deprecating line. The colonial power always uses some locals to try to make the colonised people feel they are inferior and incapable. They also try to eradicate or minimise Scottish culture.

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    9. Yeah the whole currency thing just needs some assurances: This will be the currency and this is how we'll implement it. Job done.

      Last time we got into a unnecessary argument over whether or not we could keep the Pound and for some reason stumbled on questions about it.

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    10. IFS. What is your proposal as regards currency? Like it or not no voters have been indoctrinated to believe it is a huge problem. Unless they get a clear answer they will not be persuaded. Simply slagging them off won’t help.

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    11. I'd keep the pound in the short to medium term .

      If we go Euro so be it

      Every other country in Europe seems to cope. But we're unique. Maybe we can just trade in irn bru cans.

      Seriously some.of our people are so cringe. They must be living in a a parallel universe when they go on holiday anywhere else in Europe and wonder how they cope without Rachel Reeves at the tiller

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    12. To be fully accurate: While the EU doesn’t set a strict timeframe for new member states to adopt the euro, adopting the euro is a legal obligation for all new EU members.

      However, countries can delay this by not meeting the necessary economic conditions (e.g., the convergence criteria). Countries like Sweden have effectively delayed euro adoption for years by not meeting these conditions intentionally. So, while not immediate, euro adoption is mandatory in the long term for new members.

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    13. 12.38

      Yeah. This waw done to death.

      Euro is both mandatory and not mandatory.

      A complete red herring

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    14. Anon at 12.29pm - unlike you I think telling people the truth is respecting them not " slagging them off" .

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    15. Anon at 12.38pm - Sweden joined the EU in 1995. Nearly 30 years ago. Its people didnae want to join so it hasn't. To me that means it is not mandatory.

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    16. Anon at 12.35pm - it is not a choice between the euro or the pound that is how Britnats portray the situation. A Scottish currency is the other option.
      The cringe reflects colonialism. People in Scotland have had over 300 years of suppression to convince us we are inferior.

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    17. IFS. I asked you a clear question. You respond with abuse. What is wrong with you? Once more. What is your proposal on currency? Give an answer, without anger and abuse. If you have no proposal just admit it.

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    18. I'm not prone to strident views on things and if we don't become independent, so be it.. but the idea Scotland couldn't join the EU or that somehow we couldn't make a currency work (whether that is the euro, the pound or something else) just makes me think some of our people have a really dour view on themselves. Deary me.

      It may or may not be the better but imagine seriously thinking Scotland couldn't get in the EU when all these other countries can? If that's the level of debate, Hitchens was right about the Scots. They don't have the gumption to take it.

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    19. I think the issue is less to do with not being able to make it work and more to do with not being clear what route we'd pursue: Keep the Pound, Create our own currency, move towards adopting the Euro etc. People and buisnesses like having clarity and not to leave something like that up in the air.

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    20. Exactly my point anon at 3.16.

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    21. Anon at 1.13pm who the hell do you think you are to tell me what to do and say.
      First of all you misrepresented my post by saying I was slagging people off. Secondly, I didn't respond with abuse or anger. Thirdly, I answered your question in my post of 1.06pm. Finally, with your over the top reaction and abuse I reckon you are the bampot troll who is obsessed with me.

      What the hell is wrong with you!!

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    22. Anon at 1.13pm you are very fragile person if you think that reply was abuse or you are just wanting to start an argument. I cannae get my head round how you think I somehow owe you a reply in the first place never mind after misrepresenting my reply at 12.55pm. There was no anger or abuse.

      I referred to my preference in my post of 1.06pm - a Scottish currency.

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    23. The white paper was straightforward. Proposition was a currency union.

      Fin

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    24. Anon at 6.49pm - yes that was what was proposed and I disagreed with it at the time. I could understand where Salmond was coming from but it was wrongly based on the assumption the Westminster mob were decent reasonable people. They weren't and aren't.

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  7. I was looking at the approval tables in the poll and there is a puzzling result which if I was still in ALBA I would be trying to figure out.

    Favourability
    Salmond: - 47
    Farage: -42

    Trustworthiness
    Salmond: -45
    Farage: -39

    Shares ideals and values
    Salmond: -42
    Farage: -43

    Favourablity Parties
    ALBA: -46
    Reform: -43

    Voting intention for the Holyrood list vote
    ALBA: 3% (2.67%)
    Reform: 10% (9.97%)

    Do you have a theory as to why Farage and Reform who are not much different in (un) popularity than Salmond and ALBA are polling almost four times the list vote % of ALBA?

    Why would this be?


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    1. The reason is that more people like Reform policies than ALBA policies.

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    2. Would that be enough to explain the difference?
      Could it mean that ALBAs policy development has been weak

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    3. Just to add to that ALBA has had policy development grants of nearly 300k. Reform haven’t because they had no MPs so ALBA should be better on policy

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    4. Amongst the general public who don't spend their days thinking about politics is there still a lingering "sex pest" mentality when people mention Salmond?

      The police investigation & court case was when his popularity took the largest hit and despise being acquitted on all charges that stuff sticks. Nothing of significance has really happened since to help with restoring his reputation.

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    5. Reform are a protest party for people - people who don't like politicians. That's what I think.

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    6. "Do you have a theory as to why Farage and Reform who are not much different in (un) popularity than Salmond and ALBA are polling almost four times the list vote % of ALBA?"

      Some of the Tory vote is moving to Reform. None of the SNP vote is moving to Alba or indeed ISP or I4I.

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    7. Suspect Reform are picking up votes from outside Scottish Conservative supporters.

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    8. Leader of Reform in Scotland was Yes in 2014.

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    9. A backlash to wokery

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    10. Thank you for all your comments. I think it could be that although some SNP voters retain a positive view of Salmond they are not voting Alba because the view is based on Salmond’s time in the SNP.
      Reform seems to be taking the anti-establishment protest vote.
      Their vote in the Perth North by-election on Thursday will be interesting
      They don’t have a policy pro or against Scottish independence so they may pick up scunnered SNP voters

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    11. Denise - surprised you say Reform don't have a policy pro or against independence. I think the fact that they refer to The Scotland region - Reform UK gives the game away.

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    12. "Some of the Tory vote is moving to Reform. None of the SNP vote is moving to Alba or indeed ISP or I4I."


      Yeah the main issue with ISP is that they've flown so far under the radar most people aren't aware of their existence and what they do put out on social media etc comes across as rather amateurish.

      The 'Independents for Independence' effort I don't see gaining any traction and at best will mirror the success of RISE imo.

      Alba was probably the best chance due to Salmond's profile but they've kinda shot themselves in the foot.

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  8. Shows how weak ALBA is. I think the early GE caught ALBA out the worst. Just not ready and now even less so.

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    1. To be fair looking at the result it could be argued that The SNP weren't ready for it either?

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    2. But they still have MP’s and MSP’s. Polling with ALBA is not recovering

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    3. If A S left Alba tomorrow it would cease to exist. As it is, it’s irrelevant outside the online bubble.

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  9. With 69% of people on Scotland wanting to re-join the EU focus on that as part of any new Indy ref will be key, as well as establishment off Scottish currency leading to joining of Euro as per ROI

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  10. Dont knows can be won over.

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  11. Independence is the settled will of the Scottish people.

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  12. This headline is statistically illiterate.

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  13. Move on to what, exactly?

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  14. Aye 2% swing is unachievable.

    Give up

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  15. A lot of red about the Labour Party conference as usual. I guess it helps the blood on the hands of all these people who help the monster Netahanyu kill more and more children blend in to the background.
    Labour says there is no money to stop your granny freezing but plenty to help Netahanyu.
    Labour say there is no money to stop your granny freezing but I'm all right jack I get freebies galore.

    Tories in 2010 say Labour left a financial mess, we need austerity (but not for the super rich). It lasted 14 years.

    Labour in 2024 say the Tories left a financial mess despite 14 years of austerity. Labour say we need more austerity, but not for the super rich, (they give us nice freebies you know), they are nice people.

    The Britnats falsely claim Scotland runs a deficit but since 2010 when the UK national debt was £0.8 trillion, 14 years of austerity has bizarrely resulted in the debt rising to £2.3trillion. Who got all the money? Where has it gone? It would appear it wisnae austerity for everyone.

    Meanwhile Norway with the same oil fields as Scotland and a similar population to Scotland has a £1 trillion wealth fund.

    The only change is blue Tory to red Tory. Better Together - aye right.

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    1. Austerity is a giant con. The last thing it ever does is pay off debt. Public suffering is expensive.

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    2. Reeves says Labour is the party of working people and a party you can trust😂😂😂😂😂. Good to see a protestor in the audience challenging them about arms sales to Israel. Reeves face was a picture. Poor protestor got strong armed out. Free speech not so high on Labour priorities but killing pensioners and children is acceptable. Never mind the Labour MPs all have their energy bills on expenses and if they are still cold I am sure some rich guy can gift them a nice warm coat worth a few hundred pounds.

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    3. The freezing pensioners must all just be anti-semites anyway.

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  16. What are the details (time, address) of the Dec. 1 National Assembly? Also, is there to be an ALBA autumn conference, and if so what are its details? I am very keen to participate, especially on policy making and promoting the party so as to increase our vote, but can get no information anywhere, despite being a paid-up member. My LACU has apparently folded due to internal differences. There must be others like me. Thank you for any information you can provide.

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    Replies
    1. All I've got are the basic details contained in the Friday email. Conference is 15th-16th November in Lauriston Hall, Edinburgh. National Assembly is 1st December, at The Hub, Amulree Road, Perth, with a start time of 12 noon.

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  17. We’ve been waiting years for the SNP to address in a positive way the really important issues on independence, but still we wait.
    I am of course referring to the likes of currency, border with England, pensions, loss of millions each year from Westminster through the Barnett Formula. There are of course no answers.
    Plus of course, it’s widely accepted that independence would result on austerity on steroids for many years, but of course they don’t want to talk about that either.
    Little wonder those who support the crackpot idea of independence remain in a minority.

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    1. Use the dollar. The yanks will be so happy. The english will be bankrupted as the pound crashes to 80 cents without an oil peg. All imports much dearer than before, riots and social disorder. Popcorn time. Scots counting, for once, the full tax take in our coffers. Close the border to save ourselves from the english refugees. The best revenge is to live well.

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    2. Anon 3.10
      Keep repeating the same auld crap and.some folk might believe you - those wi an IQ less than 50!

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    3. Well said anon @3.10

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    4. Anon 3:37 & 3:44, embarrassing nationalist bullshit.

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    5. “Close the border” says the halfwit@3:37.
      In the extremely unlikely event of independence there’ll be a hell o a lot mair folk wantin oot o Scotland than wantin in!

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    6. Anon at 4.28pm - so that would be the proud Scots but I'm gonna leave if Scotland is independent. Scottish patriots they are not and Scotland would be better off without these type of people. Michelle Mone was one of them but she left anyway bought and paid for by English Tories got her dodgy Covid deal for selling out Scotland during indyref1.

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    7. They're welcome to return home. They're not taking their second homes with them!

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    8. There’s no a hope in hell’s chance o independence so it’s a hypothetical.

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    9. Anon at 5.00pm - they used to say that about Ireland, India, Malta, etc etc ................ so what makes you so sure that will be the case for Scotland anon? They also used to plunder these countries resources and tell them they would be dirt poor on their own. Lots were dirt poor under the control of Westminster anyway but that seemed to escape the notice of Westminster.

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  18. Aye dame Mone said she would leave Scotland if we voted YES- and left for tax exile anyway with her dame hood. The lying unionists saying Scotland would be chucked out of the eu if we voted yes and then done it anyway. Northern Ireland taking trade away from Scotland. Shafted by the Brit nats.

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  19. There’s no a hope in hell’s chance o independence so it’s a hypothetical.— so why bother being on an Indy site saddo.

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    1. I’ll give you an example of a saddo.
      The prick @ 2:38am claiming “independence is the settled will of the Scottish people “
      This on a blog commenting on a poll putting Yes at 46% !!
      There’s mair brains in a false face than what some Nats hae!

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    2. Well you know yourself !

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