So it's beginning - people of note are starting to call for John Swinney's resignation as SNP leader. I really am conflicted about this. After Humza Yousaf resigned, I made no secret of the fact that I thought the SNP were making a mistake in installing John Swinney, especially without a contest - and in fact I felt so strongly about it that I publicised Graeme McCormick's push to get nominations in the hope that a contest would take place. I suppose in a way I should say I feel vindicated by the outcome of the general election, but the reality is that Swinney's personal ratings have been surprisingly OK since he became leader. They haven't been stellar, but there were polls during the campaign showing him with better net ratings than Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar. He certainly wasn't getting results like that when he was first leader between 2000 and 2004.
So we have to consider the very real danger that the SNP will make a change and end up worse off. We know there are many leading figures in the SNP for whom the interests of the faction matter more than the interests of the party or the country, and they remain so hellbent on stopping Kate Forbes that they're perfectly capable of trying to install someone totally unsuitable as they did with Yousaf. If you think things can't get any worse than they currently are, just take one second to imagine Jenny Gilruth as First Minister. OK, more likely, perhaps, would be someone like Neil Gray or Màiri McAllan, but that would be almost as bad an outcome. I actually do rate Ms McAllan, but at this stage in her career I don't think she would command the confidence of the public as leader. We also have to bear in mind that literally no-one who might become leader, and this includes Kate Forbes herself, has shown any sign of being interested in a more credible independence strategy than the one Yousaf and Swinney pursued.
An additional concern would be a 'Sunak effect' whereby the SNP lose credibility by having too many leaders in quick succession, and it gets to the point where it almost doesn't matter who the leader is or whether they're any good.
On balance, I think it might be worth taking the risk of a leadership change, simply because my gut feeling is that the members would choose Ms Forbes in the current circumstances - they would now see that she was right when she said continuity wouldn't cut it. And I think she's the one person with a bit of X Factor about her who might be able to get the SNP back on the front foot and generate some optimism. But if I'm wrong in my guess, and if the SNP choose almost anyone but her, they'll end up wishing they'd stuck with Swinney.
I agree, they say that Swinney is a "safe paid of hands" but that's not what the SNP needs at this moment in time. They need a strong, bold, assertive leader to take charge and do what needs to be done to push through the necessary reforms and debates required to make the SNP a strong electoral force again.
ReplyDeleteSwinney could be a good leader when the times are good, he's not the right choice when the times are bad.
Nicola Sturgeon said on ITV that she thinks John Swinney is the right person.
ReplyDeleteNicola Sturgeon also thought Humza Yousaf was the right person. It's possible she was wrong twice.
DeleteShe sure chose her time to quit, too. All of the SNP's difficulties are her making. And likely some more still to come.
DeleteNicola Sturgeon thought Nicola Sturgeon was the right person once. Just saying ...
DeleteA lot of us did.
DeleteIf she'd just been honestly shite, like Swinney was in the early 2000s, and is proving to be again, we could forgive her. But she wasn't. She could have done it. She could have got us there. She didn't just fail: she *chose* to fail.
She would say that, it was her that appointed them! She still rules the roost with an iron lady fist - Thatcher would be proud....
DeleteI think the SNP need popular policies implemented competently in order not to lose in 2026. I doubt that many people are interested in internal party politics.
ReplyDeleteDespite that, I think that a Forbes leadership is potentially disasterous. Probabl for a combo of uninteresing internal party politics, and because a small-town conservative churcher will probably be unpopular in a lot of urban Scotland except with the elderly.
Though when she stood for the leadership previously she was the more popular choice with the wider electorate according to the polls at the time.
DeleteSNP need central belt tho.
DeleteThe argument Forbes puts off Weegies is just a load of mince Nicola's cronies threw at her. Where's the proof? She was well ahead of Humza in polls.
DeleteDisastrous because she's a graduate of the British American neo-con Project. Look at her track record - Scotwind & Freeports 2 of the biggest frauds perpetrated on Scotland in the Sturgeon years. That process will accelerate:
DeleteEGL3 and EGL4 are proposed primarily subsea high voltage direct current (HVDC) cables which will transmit electricity generated by Scottish offshore wind farms to users in the Midlands and South of England. EGL3 is the biggest transmission project in the UK
Anyone who holds that view is a sausage.
DeleteI agree Swinney isn't an effective crisis leader, but if the SNP swap their leader again in such a short space of time, I think the Sunak effect isn't just a risk, it's an absolute guarantee.
ReplyDeleteThe calls for an early Holyrood election would also grow utterly deafening. FOUR First Ministers in a matter of months is just untenable for any government to long survive.
Beat me to it 12.37 anon. Scot Gov credibility will be gone with a fourth FM in one term.
DeleteAlthough I see Forbes as a leader in the future, now is not the time for a number of reasons. The William Hague factor is one, a potentially good leader destroyed by internal party divisions at a low ebb.
It's Swinney for now. There is a path to redemption available to him if he gets indy moving again after being complicit in a decade of wilful negligence.
But is that risker than waiting until the SNP loses power at Holyrood and only then installing Forbes as leader to rebuild?
DeleteRe: rebuilding. Holyrood is PR, so the SNP shouldn't slump too much in the final total of seats. They'll get creamed in the FPTP seats, like they were last week, and so they'll rely on the list like they used to. That will have an interesting side-effect: it'll stifle the Tories and Greens who rely on those lists, too!
DeleteHolyrood 2026 looks like Labour in first place, SNP second, then far behind them the Libs, who mostly win via FPTP, and finally the Tories, Greens and (sigh) Reform squabbling for slim pickings once the SNP's been topped up on the lists. Could be a difficult chamber for a Scotgov. Labour would obviously want to take power but the only majority coalition might be them and the SNP (as Stu Campbell's said in the past). Could even Lab+Con+Lib be short of a majority? What about all of them PLUS the Greens?
What I’m getting at is the SNP could be in an interesting position in the next Scottish parliament. They could be freed from responsibility for Scotgov's failings, and armed with favourable arithmetic to cause trouble, if the leader's the type to seize the opportunity…
If they installed Kate Forbes:
ReplyDelete(i) should it be a coronation. Possibly better as it avoids washing dirty linen in public.
(ii) would she need to win a vote in Holyrood - Greens would vote against her for sure so could she win on current arithmetic?
A Forbes coronation is fine as far as I'm concerned but the continuity faction are unlikely to allow it. I suspect the first thing Forbes would do as leader is try to negotiate a limited deal with the Greens, and give them some policy wins in return for not bringing her down.
DeleteI guess that could be, but one of the Greens , Ross Greer, was very adamant the Greens could not support her when he spoke on the Holyrood podcast quite recently.
DeleteIf the Greens have got a purpose now, it's to stop Kate. She's the transphobic, big oil, bigoted devil to them. They'd rather dissolve Holyrood and elect some real scumbags from Reform than let her in. Save the planet! Burn the witch!
DeleteSurely ALBA has the right to decide? They think!
DeleteKnowing the SNP they'll do something daft like getting John Nicolson or Alyn Smith in on the List in 2026 and making them leader.
ReplyDeleteCome join us, Alyn. Forever and ever…
DeleteNow he's been dragged out of two parliaments against his will, you'd hope he might get the message. But ego springs eternal. He'd be a dreadful leader, factional to the core and smug to boot, so he has every chance of Nicola's blessing.
Swinney made several errors of judgement during the campaign e.g. defending Mathieson, going to another march when the independence one was on in Stirling, taking independence off the ballot paper etc. but he won't quit, there is no mechanism to remove him and Kate Forbes doesn't want the job just now.
ReplyDeleteKate Forbes will be good but isn't a finished product yet. If she takes over in 2026 when the SNP go into opposition, that will give her the extra time and leadership experience she needs too be a First minister leading an independence push in 2031 when hopefully she will be joined by a more talented intake of MSPs. Time is on her side just now even if it is not on ours.
Oh God not this again. The object of the exercise is to *prevent* unionist victories, not wait for them to happen and then exploit them for personal gain. She isn't Stuart Campbell.
DeleteWith Swinney at the helm, who exactly is going to prevent Labour from cruising to a Holyrood win? Everyone's actions are confirming that they've all priced it in.
DeleteNo, James, preventing unionist victories is not the object of the exercise. Getting Independence is the object of the exercise.
DeleteThat really is beyond parody. Apparently you're saying unionist victories are the way to get independence. Hi, Stu!
DeleteA different anon here. I don't believe that's what they're saying. I’m not sure what a clearer logical argument would be…
DeleteActually, as people were moaning about Latin on the last thread, lets try some symbolic logic!
Let S = Scottish Independence
Let X = A pro-independence majority in Holyrood
What anon was asserting is that X does not equal S. They are different things. Related, maybe, but distinct. You can have one or both or none of them.
What you're saying they said was that X is the inverse (opposite) of S. This is logically false. The claim is they are separate, not opposite.
I doubt taking it to the Logicians will actually help, but quad erat demonstrandum and all.
Slow and steady as she goes… glug… glug… all the way down to the bottom.
ReplyDeletePatrick, Lorna all backed up by the fearsome intellect of Greer (waving his tiny wee fist) May force the SMP hand before 2026. Follow the trail of gravy and there lies a likely outcome.
ReplyDeleteThe Greens did well in 2021. They may well feel the squeeze in the next HR election, whether in 2026 or sooner, as they see fit. Here are the reasons:
Delete1. Yessers lending the Greens their list vote (as I have done many times) might be a wee bit more wary in future, especially if the Greens bring down this Scotgov
2. Lorna Slater let the cat out of the bag when she showed off how cosy she'd be as a minister in a Labour government, are the Greens really going to convince folk that they only have eyes for the SNP?
3. The Greens contempt for the popular Kate Forbes could be a real pain-point for them the closer she gets to being SNP leader
4. As things stand, the SNP is expected to lose a bucketload of seats in the next HR election, and to rely much more on the list for top-up. More SNP voters may choose to stick to the SNP on the list, just in case.
5. There will be more competition for list seats in 2026, with Reform taking many of them, going by what they've just achieved. Labour's rise might free up their list seats, but the SNP will be best placed to take them. The Greens could feel the squeeze.
Honestly, I'd have a bad feeling about the next Holyrood election if I was a Green. The electoral environment is narrowing for them. If they were part of a popular Scotgov, setting policies, they'd be much better placed. A setback in 2026 will make them very keen indeed to join Labour's coalition, consequences be damned for their Yes-aligned vote.
Caltonian: For the avoidance of doubt, the comment of yours I've just deleted is exactly the sort that may make a return to pre-moderation inevitable. You should be perfectly capable of making your own point without attacking me. If you want to state or imply that I shouldn't have written a blogpost, you'll have to find a different online space to do it. You aren't going to do it here.
ReplyDeleteIs there a William Hague danger - that she is used too soon and gets tarnished before her time?
ReplyDeletePossibly. The Mathieson affair is an example: Swinney's gotten smeared in that sleaze now by refusing to do the right thing. It wasn't Swinney's mess, but it is now.
DeleteI don't think serving as deputy FM in a beleaguered SNP minority administration makes Forbes immune from the inevitable mess that is still to transpire. (Branchform, anyone?) In a way, Kate's current position is the worst of both worlds: she is complicit but not in command. She can't take the hard choices the leader should to get them out of it.
Forbes on Good Morning Scotland today:
ReplyDelete"We need to look at why and how we didn’t inspire the number of voters to vote for us as we might have liked. I do think it’s a change in **ensuring our policy agenda matches the public’s priorities**. I think it’s allowing John Swinney – who was only in post two weeks before the election was called – to set out and deliver on his agenda of **tackling poverty, of economic growth, of ensuring our public services are robust and resilient**".
This does not read like the words of someone focusing on indy!!!!!!!!!!!!
DeleteAnon 3.22is a gobshite
ReplyDeleteAnon at 3.22: Comment deleted, go away, do not attempt to post here again, ever. Many thanks.
ReplyDeleteJames was very much for Ash Regan during the leadership contest. Obviously, Ash prioritised action on independence more than Forbes or Yousaf. Less obvious, however, were her overall leadership qualities. I wouldn't have voted for her myself, nor did much of the party.
ReplyDeleteYou're right that Forbes isn't champing at the bit for indy. Personally, I think her strength is in the way she successfully comes across as a bright, authentic and principled young woman with determination to get things done in politics. I don't think that's a skill you can learn, I think it's something you either have or don't. Salmond had it, Nicola too, and Kate could make just as forceful a First Minister.
Now, what about indy? Here's my position. Independence takes grit and determination. It takes a popular leader. In fact, it needs an inspirational leader for the movement as well as the party. I think Kate has it, while Swinney definitely has not. If she can be convinced that it's the right time to make the move for indy, she has the personality and character to get us there. But you're right: so far, she's not taken that urgent a position.
That's why it's right we remind the SNP that we Yessers vote for them for one thing and one thing alone. 2024 was as big a wakeup call as they come.
Anon 3.34 . Tha mi a'dol leat.
DeleteI agree with you .
It was also interesting during the previous leadership campaign that most of those who supported Ash Regan in the wider movement predominantly also put Kate Forbes into the "willing to give a chance" column.
DeleteEven now outside of the Greens etc the only real issue people have against Kate Forbes atm is her stance on Freeports. Remove that and I believe most of the wider Yes movement would be willing to give her a chance. Whereas Yousaf was seen as the continuity candidate from the start and Swinney even more so.
Were Youssaf’s leadership qualities in evidence 🤣🤣🤣🤣
DeleteThe SNP will remain demoralised and broke and unable to find good candidates and financial backing until it sorts itself out.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is the wrong answer for the position they now find themselves in, but equally I don't think that Kate Forbes is either. While she displays more seriousness and competence than almost any other, the fact that most of the existing cabinet and parliamentary party put the boot into her during the 2023 leadership election means that she'dlack authority. Her moral positions would be questioned every time she sat down for an interview, just as it was for Tim Farron. Eventually she'd be broken, which would be a tragedy.
At this very moment I couldn't point to anybody who has the recognition, charisma or competence to take over and make a good go of 2026.
The SNP are going to get leathered in 2026 unless they do something as radical as what Robin McAlpine was suggesting.
Which was? (And is it still?)
DeleteThe first thing is this. People blame Sturgeon for there not being a de facto referendum. Wrong. This was her speech to Holyrood 28 June 2022:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.snp.org/nicola-sturgeons-full-statement-announcing-the-2023-independence-referendum/
1. Publish referendum and set date as 19th Oct 23
2. Ask again for Section 30.
3. If refused Section 30, then LA reference to court under paragraph 34 of schedule 6 of the Scotland Act
4. If that fails, then a de facto referendum next GE, I quote:
"my party will fight the UK general election on this single question –
‘Should Scotland be an independent country’."
What happened then is that some SNP MPs moaned that it was their job on the line, it wasn't up to her to make that decision. And the dreaded SNPNEC supported them - they had other priorities than Independence.
For my money the problem was the 48 feet and slippers under the green bench SNP MPs, who had vast influence in the SNP - and abused it. Now there are just the 9 and hopefully their influence is next to nothing, extinct, no more, expired, null, nihil, nichts.
Blaming Sturgeon who resigned over a year ago just ignores the real problem that was still there - a problem Yousaf had, and Swinney after him. Leader only in name, the SNP led by the settle in not settle up MPs, bought and sold by English Gold - yet again.
Most of them are gone, booted out, sacked. NOW we can move on.
How long until those troughers are ensconced atop the Holyrood lists?
DeleteI’m guessing the SNP has a tightly controlled, centralised decision making process for writing those all-important lists. I mean, they pochled it so their favourites could win for insulting nonsense like personality disorders before, as I recall. That stuff MUST STOP post haste or they're all getting shafted.
As for your central argument:
DeleteWho led the SNP? Nicola.
Who had total control of the party by the force and cult of her personality? Nicola.
Who promised a de facto WM election? Nicola.
Who did not deliver? Nicola.
Who buggered off so she wouldn't have to, and installed a stooge to keep her seat warm? Nicola.
Don't know about you, YI2, but I’m beginning to see a pattern here.
"How long until those troughers are ensconced atop the Holyrood lists?"
DeleteNever I hope, or Indy is gone for good. The branches have to reject most of them, if not all. They failed, or didn't even try.
"Who led the SNP? Nicola."
DeleteNot since 29 March 2023 when she resigned.
IF she was the problem, why no change since?
The obsession over Sturgeon allows the real villains to hide behind her skirts. And still does.
Yesindyref2 - you have a mental block about Sturgeon. She is 100% to blame. Stop trying to pass the buck to other unnamed politicians. Are you a nicophant like so many on WeeGinger Dug?
DeleteI know. But she put her finger very firmly on the scale for Humza in the leadership election (oh so you’re expecting a baby, Kate?) and if anyone’s her man it’s John REDACTOR MAN Swinney himself.
DeleteIt’s not like she’s given us a chance to see a post-Nicola SNP. It’s still very much her true believers cult of a party.
Anonymous at 5:11 PM
DeleteI have just explained it to you, yet you persist in blaming history.
Do you want the problem that IS STILL IN THE SNP to carry on by deflecting on to Sturgeon for the next 30 years?
Why? Are you a Unionists infiltrator?
You are Ian Murray and I claim my £5.
next
Anonymous at 5:13 PM
DeleteYes, Sturgeon interfered and shouldn't have done so. swinney also interfered during that leadership election - he shouldn't have either, In fact most MPs and MSPs interfered and should have. It should have been totally up to the membership without an elected politician trying to corrupt the vote in any way.
That leadership election could have taken place in North Korea.
Yedindyref2 you are a WeeGinger Dug nicophant and I make no claim other than you have a mental block about Sturgeon. Yousaf was in charge- laughable. Swinney is in charge - laughable.
DeleteYesindyref2, You have no clue if Sturgeon or Swinney interfered or not, you're just stirring shit like you always do' Away back to WGD they've got your number and know what you're up to rent a gob
DeleteAnonymous at 5:27 PM and 5:34 PM
DeleteYou can't both be right!
Do you want to argue it out amongst yourselves back at Dover House?
The power the 48 held was surely down to the money they were bringing into the party. £1million was it?
Delete£1 million short money, plus 39 MPs "donating" 10% I think it was, of salaries to party funds. I presume that includes the extras they get as chairs of committees etc. A lot of money.
DeleteAlba have got the lowest rated leader in political history and you want to offer your genius to the SNP? I don't think so
ReplyDeleteYou people bang on about Sturgeon Yousaf and Swinney as though they're not as good as Salmond, what a malicious damn brass neck the lot of you have, a party of total losers marching along behind an even bigger loser and you write a blog criticizing another party when your own is the worst rated party in Britain let alone Scotland
If any party wants advice on how not to do it they just need to look at you lot
I see Dr Jim is ranting again.
DeleteAs a general thing, if "the SNP" whatever entity that is, doesn't get to the bottom of its troubles, get rid of the guileful hingers-on, ruthlessly reform itself root and branch, it's firkined. Cult of personality, whether for or against the personality, IS the enemy.
ReplyDeleteOne of the biggest problems the SNP has is the three monkeys, not wise at all, who still think the SNP is perfect, and ran a perfect campaign.
Delete"It's the stupid voters who aren't genetically programmed to make political decisions."
The doctor said: "No more monkeys jumping on the bed".
YI2 After reading your comment and think there is a fourth!
ReplyDeleteDon't be so hard on yourself.
DeleteAgree, Regan to lead ALBA with immediate effect. Why? Well there is no-one left? or on the right. Time to overthrow Salmond and the rest. Kelly to be vice leader. This diversion thing is good!!
ReplyDeleteDeleted Anon at 6.53: Please stop attempting to post on this blog, thank you.
ReplyDelete"but then diversion is what this is all about."
ReplyDeleteNope. It's about trying to get the SNP to rebuild and repair itself in the less than 2 years before the Holyrood Election, so it can win an overall majority of seats and be dependent on nobody. Not the Greens, not Alba, and certainly not the Unionists.
Just as long as it's all about Independence not virtue-signalling gesture politics.
Independence in 2026.
I joined Alba in 2021. But I would consider rejoining the SNP if Forbes takes over. Thats how important her effect on people could be.
ReplyDeleteKate Forbes is a religious fundamentalist. A bible basher who will chase away the youth vote.
ReplyDeleteWhat 'Bible bashing' has Forbes done? She answered questions during her leadership bid and that was it. Ever since she has been vilified for her honesty.
DeleteAs long as Toxic Sturgeon and her toxic Wokist cabal are at large and calling the shots it will make no difference who heads up the SNP. As long as the Alphabet Queer Greens are wagging the dog it will make no difference.
ReplyDeleteOh dear another right wing nut job
DeleteWhat do you post under on WOS? You come across as really stupid. Tell me what wokist means? And don’t use the same word twice in the one sentence. Suggests lack of vocabulary. Lesson over. Toddle off back to your mouth frothing pals on WOS.
DeleteAnon at 3.29pm - give it a rest with your toddle off to this that and everywhere. You come across as an arrogant and ignorant pig
DeleteBottom line is that Kate Forbes just isn’t a very good option.
ReplyDeleteShe will not recreate the SNP that’s needed to put a stop to the ongoing disaster, which I think may well lead to Labour running Holyrood. It’s not a nice thought but ultimately I think we might need a complete reset to go again
AS and NS both need to be far away from whatever developments happen next.
The person or group who will lead us to independence aren’t currently on the radar
All of the current bunch, whether SNP or Alba won’t be the ones who go down in history
It’s all our collective own fault
But we need to accept it and think fresh
Forbes ain’t fresh!
Forbes is competent. In partnership with others a team can be built, but the current constitution of the SNP is not democratic and members are powerless to smash the N S clique and make the changes necessary. Depressing.
Delete
ReplyDeleteAnon .1243
It's the youth group in the SNP that chased away the older members. (The majority). And led to their downfall. That some people still can't grasp this is baffling.
Humza was part of a chauvinistic religious order. But that didn't seem to bother anyone. Are we now suggesting we pick and choose leaders on religious grounds?
Who is the bigot??