I can only assume the announcement of Douglas Ross' pre-resignation as leader is intended to shore up the Tory vote, but I'm not sure it will have that effect - or at least not in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where he has cretinously taken advantage of the popular incumbent's ill health to appoint himself as a replacement candidate at the last minute. Essentially the announcement just confirms that Ross' selfish behaviour was not considered acceptable even by the Tory party, and that being the case, voters in the constituency will surely be asking themselves why they should consider this guy remotely acceptable as their local MP. The SNP are by no means certain to win the seat, because they have their own obvious challenges in trying to hold on to their voters from last time, but nevertheless I'd have thought their chances are considerably better than they otherwise would have been.
Even in other constituencies, this development creates a problem for the Tories, because more than at any previous election, potential Tory voters will be totally in the dark about what they're really being asked to vote for. The Scottish Tory leadership is to all intents and purposes vacant, and the same can effectively be said for the UK Tory leadership, because Sunak will not survive the crushing defeat that is coming his way.
Who could possibly replace Ross on the Throne of Doom? Could it be Murdo Fraser's day in the sun at long last? Would they dare risk Meghan Gallacher? Will they bore us into submission with Rachael Hamilton? Surely not a Jackson Carlaw restoration comedy?
* * *
I've previewed the constituency race in Coatbridge and Bellshill for The National - you can read it HERE.
We might just have a rare moment of unity in the comment section: Alba Supporters, SNP Supporters, ISP Supporters & Green Supporters... we can all agree that Douglas Ross is a pillock!
ReplyDeleteHe laughed at a girl's jumper.
ReplyDeleteThere is only one candidate of sufficient intellectual ability to take over as Tory Leader in Scotland - Annie Wells!
ReplyDeleteGrouser
I'd forgotten about poor old Annie. Thanks for brightening up a dull day.
DeleteJust to trump your Annue Wells, could I nominate Edward Mountain?
Any advance on Edward Mountain?
Gallacher has potential. If I was them, I'd go for her.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they could recruit Meghan Marple and Liam Gallacher from Oasis. Harry Hewitt could rag along for free.
DeleteJames, your election analysis for Ayr Carrick and Cumnock never appeared on the digital version of the National even though you say it was on the print version. Any chance you could get the National to show it or could you advise where we could best see it.
ReplyDeleteI follow all your election analyses with interest but ironic that the one for my constituency is the one that does not appear
The digital edition is identical to the print edition, so it was definitely there. I'd have to look back to check which day it was.
DeleteOK, it's on page 7 of the digital edition from 5th June.
DeleteThanks
DeleteThat was nice of you to say Thanks.
DeleteI have just chipped in a small donation to say sorry for nominating Annie Wells as Tory Leader. I now realise this is a deadly serious situation and we should not make fun of the Tories (nor give them any more stupid ideas).
ReplyDeleteGrouser
There's a real dope from Ayrshire among the Tory ranks who is addicted to making an absolute arse of himself in public. Not sure what his name is (neither is he), but I suggest the Tories pick him. Or handyman Ross Thompson.
DeleteHe seems to have completely messed up and as you say I doubt that he has any control over the Scottish Tory Party. My guess is that they'll plump for Megan Gallagher as she's the only recognisable name other than Sandesh Gulhane. Either would be disastrous I think.
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing any selling point for the Scottish Tories at the next Holyrood Election. This could be their opportunity to separate from the English Tory Party, especially if as Suella Braverman wants Nigel Farage is welcomed in. That I think would finish them in Scotland unless the Scottish Tories broke away. However if you look at the areas where the Tories do relatively well in Scotland there's a very high portion of the population born elsewhere, so a Scotland only Unionist Party might struggle.
It kind of undermines the Tories' raison d'etre as unionists and would-be Britons to break away from the party run by the very people they hope to become some day.
DeleteMurdo Fraser is a known name.
DeleteSo is Bing Crosby.
DeleteThe fascinating thing is that it means the Scottish and UK Conservative leadership elections could run in parallel, with the Scottish one finishing first. Whenever they clashed in the past, the Scottish leader has been swiftly booted.
ReplyDeleteIf the UK Tories install a raving lunatic, we could finally see Murdo Fraser's secessionist dream come true.
To be fair he has been an effective politician probably doesn't get the credit he deserves.
ReplyDeleteLOL
DeleteAt 4.47.
DeleteWho?
I thought the lunchtime media - particularly BBC Scotland - went very easy on the story. I think that there is a lot more to come out regarding his Parliamentary expenses issue and his offer to resign the leadership if he wins the seat is an attempt to deflect the attention away from the expenses matter. If I was an investgative journalist I think that I would be trying to get hold of Ross's expenses claims from the SPFL for his refereeing activities in order to cross reference them against his Parliamentary expenses for journeys made to see if he has made any 'double claims'. I think the outcome of such a check might prove to be highly embarrassing for Douglas Ross.
ReplyDeleteI would vote four Douglas Ross because he's a real Bobby dazzler. I'd get ny sister to vote for his cat Hugo.
DeleteI'd get Aunt Val to vote for his uncle Percy but only if he invented an app called Track My Shite which a kind of thing that can follow your poop from toilet to purification works.
Highly embarrassing and actionable, possibly criminal.
ReplyDeleteWho could possibly replace Ross?
ReplyDeleteJackie Bailey could see an oportunity to defect and become leader.
She would do - so she is Labour through and through.
DeleteLiz Smith is the obvious candidate. Unlike Alex Cole-Hamilton, she really is a fast bowler.
ReplyDeleteSmith is the one who always looks like she's stepped in off the street thinking the Parliament was a tearoom, and always seems baffled by her surroundings.
DeleteSo she's an obvious follow-on act after Dross.
How about Michael Gove? Michael Forsyth? Michelle Mone?
ReplyDeleteI nominate Benjamin Disraeli.
DeleteI nominate….. myself! If selected then I promise shed loads of own goals, this time on purpose :-)
ReplyDeleteIn Scotland that is, of course.
ReplyDeleteI nominate Denmark, of course.
DeleteMy guess is Murdo Fraser.
ReplyDeleteBrian
I think Rich Sunak might be needing a job.
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't need one. He can live off the profits his wife made off public sector contracts.
DeleteThat's not for sure at all.
ReplyDeleteAfter the recent bit of repair and groundwork - a bit of greenkeeping as you might say - all that's needed is for the SNP to say the word "Independence" in every single sentence, and mean business - like the de facto referendum. 50% and + of the vote could give them all 57 seats.
What was that word again?
I think that with the great disconnect between independence supporters and political partys that idea would get them 7 seats, and they know it. It's a surefire vote-loser.
DeleteBring back Ruth.
ReplyDeleteRuth Simpson, the seamstress from Crieff?
Deletecould there be history at this election, the destruction of the conservative party both in Westminster and Scotland?
ReplyDeleteHopefully the destruction of the rotten to the core SNP as well.
DeleteIs your name Sarwar or Baillie? Nae chance
DeleteThe Tories seem to have a new and exciting cock up for each and every day of this election. I can't recall ever seeing such a car crash of a campaign before. In the future special advisors will do training videos on this omnishambles.
ReplyDeleteIt would be a shame for Holyrood to lose the only working-class party leader it has.
ReplyDeletelmao
DeleteYes. People who own farms are very working class aren't they?
DeleteFarm labourers don't own farms, but you have a fertile imagination. Imagine that: A Scottish political leader who used to be a labourer.
DeleteDross was never a farm labourer, but if that fantasy turns you on ...
DeleteAnas Sarwar will combine the leadership of the new CONLab Reformed alliance.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure he could buy every party in Scotland. Maybe as a treat for the kids, the next generation of hereditary politicos.
DeleteDRoss should join the ALBA party and become the Tartan Farage...Oh hang on, Salmond has filled that post!!
ReplyDeleteHe should join The SNP.
DeleteSince they took in that arch unionist Murray Foote and made him CEO of their Party it wouldn't be that much of a stretch!
On the basis that we know he hates the SNP, would Alba not be his natural home?
DeleteHe has been a good leader for the Scottish Conservatives. The 2021 election was an achievement and since then he has been quite effective in FMQs and on the media. He has a much more relatable demeanour than many previous Scottish conservatives, although he was not the star that Ruth Davidson was. I can see why he would prefer to be an MP, however.
ReplyDeleteLOL
DeleteIn reply to 8:45,we need to agree to disagree.During FMQ he tals about issues that are caused by the Conservative government,but never acknowledges that,Also he identifies problems bit never offers solutions,or recognises the limitations of a devolved government.How easy to be in opposition
ReplyDelete“Issues that are caused by the Conservative government “
DeleteSo no issues are caused by the SNP SG??
Are you for real?
Like the Tories, the SNP charlatans have had their day. There is urgent need for change in both Westminster and Holyrood.
Yes pro Brexit labour, more taxes labour-but don’t tell the punters, more nuclear weapons dumped in Scotland, but wait a minute … The Vow, more shipbuilding on the Clyde promised by Brown and co, remember the sneering Margaret Curran, no more wars in the Middle East -excepting Palestine of course- their exempt. Shower of charlatans. The people of Scotland should govern Scotland not reject public school boys and girls with Tory hearts and redcoats.
DeleteThere technically is no such thing as the Scottish government, that was an ego driven desire of Alex Salmond to change the name from the Scottish executive to make himself appear more important, and which was and still is only a management branch organisation in overall charge of nothing, and absolute powers over nothing
DeleteThe UK government are never short of reminding Scotland that they have two governments of which they are the superior body, so whatever goes wrong in Scotland all roads lead to UK government as the superior overseer except during elections when they complain everything is the fault of the SNP
No political party in Scotland has any real authority whatsoever, even in government
Scotland exists within an English system specifically designed to fail, the fact that the SNP has made many successes is somewhat of a miracle, and why independence from England is so feared by the government there, the ending of their regime control would be a total disaster for British nationalism and send shockwaves throughout the world, this is why they made it so difficult to achieve and injected constant denial that such a thing could ever be possible, and why it has become much more easy to undermine the SNP mission by the conversion and rewards to those who would join them in their continued control of Scotland
Divide and rule, undermine and denigrate, and who does most of that in Scotland ?
Answer that truthfully and you'll be voting SNP
"The Vow"
DeleteInteresting to mention that considering who the SNP CEO is.
"No political party in Scotland has any real authority whatsoever, even in government"
DeleteSo any good policies that happen in Scotland can be attributed to the UK Government as well?
It can't really work both ways that everything good that happens is down to the SNP and everything bad that happens is down to the UK Government. If they have the capability to do something good then surely they hold some responsibility for the bad?
Anons @ 10:23 & 10:38, Desperate stuff.
DeleteIf independence is such a good idea, why do a clear majority of the country want to remain in the union?
Anon at 12.08 A clear majority don't and don't think they have have for years?
Delete49% if that is a high water mark.
Tends to be between
42-45 Yes
43-49 No
5-10 Don't know
Hardly a settled argument.
Yes, sure. We believe you. Which one are you? IFS? bell telephone Co? ALBA gen Secr? Baurheid boy? Regan copying from a script?…
ReplyDeleteMassive drop in turnout as scunnered Yessers and dejected Tories stay at home. Slab reaps the rewards, gloat furiously, then hold the can while Starmer strangles unionism stone cold. Spoiler: he has zero interest in their needs, let alone Scotland’s. He’s here to speak and rule for England. He’s quite frank about it.
ReplyDeleteShould focus a few minds on our independent future.
Bring it on!
LOL 🤣🤣🤣
DeleteAny vote not SNP is a vote for Labour
ReplyDeleteIt makes no difference what you like or don't like, the facts are that the SNP is the only party Westminster will pay the slightest bit of attention to, as far as London's concerned the SNP is all there is in Scotland , everything else can be bought or trampled under their feet
Jim, what is your favourite example of Westminster paying attention to the SNP since 2015?
DeleteGosh you live a simple life don’t you. Does mummy know you’re on line?
DeleteFlyboy's a genius, he believes Scottish Labour are actually Scottish
DeleteA poll by Opinium of Westminster voting intention in Scotland, carried out from Wednesday June 5 to Monday June 10 among 1,017 adults online, puts Labour on 35%, the SNP on 34%, the Conservatives on 14%, the Lib Dems on 8%, Reform on 5%, the Greens on 4% and other parties on 1%.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the SNP are closing the gap with SLAB. 5% for Green and others, possibly ex SNP supporters but hopefully they will come back before polling.
DeleteSo Pro Union 62%
DeletePro Indy 38%
Anon at 4.25
DeleteDo you honestly believe everyone voting Labour is pro union?
Please answer the question because I know from direct experience some of the biggest independence supporters I know are wondering about voting Labour in this election.
Anon at 4:39, I think you’re a Nat clutching at straws.
Deleteanon at 4.42
DeleteNot really, it was a basic question off a ludicrous proposition Unionism is sitting at 62% which seems far off the polls and anyone's own experience.
It is a question easily answered by the Yes/No to independence asked in these polls and that hasn't moved much from 48 to 49% for Yes over the last few months.
DeleteHowever, you raise a fair point. If you do support independence then you shouldn't lend your vote to Labour (or bizarrely, Tory) because people like you will claim it is a vote for the Union. It is why I will not be voting Labour.
Anon at 4.25. Do you not know how FPTP works?
DeleteAnon at 5:12, you are correct. Not only people like me, but also Starmer and the new Labour government in Westminster.
DeleteAlong with the seat numbers, the share of the vote will be closely looked at. If the combined Labour, Tory, LD and Reform share of the vote in Scotland is 60% or higher, you will need to accept the Indy question being kicked into the long grass for a considerable length of time.
Claiming a lot of independence supporters voted Labour, stayed at home or spoiled ballot papers, I’m afraid, won’t cut it.
Telling the truth won't cut it? Why not?
DeleteW'ell just need to accept a majority of the vote and 90% of the seats means the union will need to be ended in 2015 did we?
DeleteNo, because Scots on the whole are not stupid. They know the system, political party popularity do not mask the fact independence and the union are neither the settled position but clearly a disagreement that will run and run.
I actually hope Labour, in particular, do claim as the above poster describes as the sneer has the potential to annoy people. You'd have to be really out of touch to claim the labour vote is a vote for the union and it would be seen for what it is.
DeleteI think they'll do the opposite and be keen to show they've taken on a section of Yes supporters.
Labour will claim the Indy cause is at an end and a compliant BBC will push that narrative relentlessly. Slightly worrying that we have Indy supporters who don’t see that.
DeleteIt's horses for courses for some. Indy supporters, some of them, will give Labour their vote in this election as they don't think independence is on the ballot paper.
DeleteDaft if you ask me but equally so to claim their vote is for unionism when it's clearly to dump tories
Indy supporters who think that independence is not on the ballot paper should think again.I just received this email from Jphn Swinney (sent to all SNP members).
DeleteThe power to build a better future is in all of our hands.Vote SNP to be an independent country.At the core of what the SNP is offering at this election is the belief that decisions about Scotland should be made in Scotland through independence.
Anon @ 10:12 PM
DeleteThough actions speak louder than words. The SNP had the opportunity to literally have independence on the ballot paper...
That was even the plan passed at Conference: "Conference further agrees that the SNP will seek to add the words “Independence for Scotland” or words to that effect, to the party’s name and logo on the General Election ballot papers to make it clear beyond doubt what’s at stake at this election."
But for some reason that's been dropped by the SNP without any consultation with members: Why?
John Swinney in an email to SNP members states that: The power to build a better future is in our hands.Vote SNP to be an independent country.This commitment is in the first line of the manifesto.
DeleteAnon @ 10:38 If it was a serious commitment it would actually be on the ballot paper as originally intended.
DeleteI'm still waiting on an explanation as to why it isn't.
The White Settlers will see Ross elected nae bother. Well that and a Woke SNP.
ReplyDeleteDefine “woke”. A term normally used by the right wing anally retentive.
DeleteWoke is telling kids they're born in wrong body, reparations to Jamaica and other mad hair brained schemes.
DeleteIt's insanity on stilts
Racist
DeleteWhat does "woke" mean?
Deleteit's the extremities of the above commentator about the trans and stupid race policies amongst other weary things that very few people support or care about.
DeleteIt's basically taking good idea too far to the point of madness and absurdity.
Whatever the previous description was it's now seen as that.
ALBA supporters tend to be the most militant independence supporters. Reading their comments on twitter, on here and elsewhere damages the very cause they are fighting for. Tartan Farages.
ReplyDeleteExactly......not nice people.
DeleteDo they tend to wear a lot of tartan? Or is your use of 'tartan' a term like 'Spic' for Italian or 'Dago' for Spanish? I won't mention the equivalent terms used to demean black or Jewish people.
DeleteYougov new poll has Labour down to 38% UK wide
ReplyDeleteIt has been a lacklustre campaign across the board. Labour may be slipping but so are the Tories to 18% with Fandango's lot on 17%. Be interesting to see the subsample for Scotland where Reform are a side show. If the SNP are continuing to pick up they may actually be back in front again.
DeleteMy thoughts too Shrimp!
DeleteI wonder if Labour will give Robin Harper a peerage?
ReplyDeleteI apply the Violette Sea of Test to one and all. Live with it.
DeleteSarwar on TV debate clearly saying Labour does not support independence
ReplyDeleteOf course Labour don’t support independence!
DeleteWhy would they?
They weren't in awe of the union either for many years.
DeleteI don’t think anybody could dispute Anas Sarwar was the clear winner in tonight’s leader’s debate.
ReplyDeleteAlex Cole Hamilton possibly edging second place. Certainly not honest John’s finest hour though.
Not that you are in the slightest bit partisan...🤔
DeleteYes, I dispute.
DeleteAnas didnt answer rhe 18£billion question. I wonder why?
Deleteperhaps we will find out romoeeow in their " fully costed and paid for manifesto."
"Emily Gray
ReplyDelete@EmilyIpsosScot
📢 Look out for brand new Scotland polling numbers coming tomorrow!"
X/ Twitter
I shall!
Brian
Apparently they all won...which is very sweet and very 21st century.
ReplyDeleteApparently Stephen Flynn has told STV News that an independence referendum will happen within five years if his party win majority of seats in Scotland...
ReplyDeleteWhy's it always 5 years away?
Good evening Anas
DeleteSo you're a yoon....right?
Delete5 years...now where have I heard that before. Oh yes 2017, 2020 and 2021. In fact are we not due a referendum in 2026 now?
ReplyDelete11:42pm.I understand the frustration and lack of trust.However,since the SNP leadership believes that a Yes majority is necessary to overcome Westminster resistence,the delay in delivering is understandable.During the coming election the SNP manifesto is aking voters to vote SNP to be an independent country.They have made their vision of the process towards achieving that very clear.It is:
Delete1) Wind this election and then negotiate with the UK government to hold a referendum
2) Win the referendum and then declare independence
3) Should the UK government refuse a referendum,make the next election for the Scottish parliament a defacto referendum.
Now there are different views about how best independence,but it is not accurate to conclude that they dont want independence.
Anon at 9:21, all very well, but we need to get support for independence above 50%. This is by far the biggest obstacle.
DeletePoints 1 & 2 are meaningless as they've been tried already.
DeletePoint 3 doesn't seem to be highlighted anywhere as being part of the plan, John Swinney & Stephen Flynn haven't mentioned it when directly asked what the independence plan is, it's not mentioned on the SNP's website, wasn't debated with SNP members at Conference and we're well past the stage of just taking people on their word.
There's also several conflicting statements being said by SNP supporters.
DeleteIf you look on Twitter you'll get told the following:
* The plan is to win a majority of seats and declare independence.
* When Westminster says No to a referendum the plan is to send an envoy to the EU and begin preparations to declare independence.
* When Westminster says No the plan is to use the 2026 Scottish Parliament election as a de-facto referendum.
But looking at the details of the SNP's plan as currently outlined and is available for anyone to ready at the moment the plan seems to just be: Ask Westminster for another referendum, shrug our shoulders and shout "democratic outrage" when they say No and then do nothing.
Anything more than that might be what you'd "like to happen" or "should happen" but it's not actually the plan at present.
Your third * is the plan for intransigence.
DeleteYou've already worked it out.
Clearly, you cannot ask for a referendum people haven't given you a mandate for first, neither state a defacto vote. But that's obviously the plan as you have already worked out. Don't understand the confusion to be honest.
If they are asking WM for a referendum. How can Flynn give a timescale, if WM can veto it?
ReplyDeleteVote Alba for 5 years of Anas Sarwar saying NO, cause that'll help
ReplyDeleteIt seems like the SNP are on course for recovering to 50+ seats come the day. But by the same token, they're on course for struggling to keep double figures.
ReplyDeleteAnd how can this be? For Swinney IS the Kwisatz Haderach!
More like Schrödinger's Cat.
DeleteBrian
It's the Dross that's in a superposition of being deid an alive at the same time.
Deletehttps://youtu.be/aUY97pkoVvo
ReplyDeleteIPSOS Scotland, just now:
ReplyDeleteSNP: 36% (-3 compared with our last poll of 25th-31st January)
Labour: 36% (+4)
Conservatives: 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Reform UK: 4% (+1)
Scottish Green Party: 3% (-1)
Alba Party: 1% (unchanged)
Other: 1% (+1)
Brian
Encouraging.
DeleteThis is slightly better than some previous polls, putting the combined pro Indy vote share at 40%.
Delete12:32 A drop of 3% and an increase of 4% for Labour is encouraging? I'll have some of what you're smoking.
DeleteThe figures are comparing it to their previous poll in January, a month ago most polls had Labour ahead by 4 or 5 points .This is the second poll this week that has it neck and neck.This is not what the Unionist media were expecting.Its all to play for.After the trials and tribulations of the last couple of years of the SNP still win elections in Scotland the much heralded Labour revival can be very much viewed as a dead cat bounce
ReplyDeleteBritnats are the crap merchants.
DeleteA couple of the polls had Labour on 38%and the SNP on 28%. But Labour's campaign UK wide seems to have run out of steam and the SNP in Scotland have picked up a bit. To be back level pegging is encouraging indeed.
DeleteHowever with Reform now splitting the far right 50/50 and the Tories on 18% across the UK even a flagging Labour campaign is likely to give them a hefty win.