On Tuesday, a GB-wide YouGov poll was published which somehow managed to be bad for absolutely everyone apart from Farage's mob and the Liberal Democrats. Notably, it had Labour below 40% of the vote for the first time in any public opinion poll since at least the turn of the year. People were quick to dismiss it as an outlier, and of course we have to remember that YouGov have been at pains to point out that they've changed their methodology in a way that slightly reduces the reported Labour vote. But looking at tonight's batch of fresh polls, it does look very much like Labour's vote has genuinely dipped. There's another sub-40 vote share for Labour from People Polling, who had the party at 46% in their most recent poll in mid-May.
This would matter tremendously if the UK had a proportional representation voting system as the vast majority of European countries do, and indeed as the UK's own devolved parliaments and assemblies do. But since general elections are actually conducted by first-past-the-post, it may matter a lot less, because by far the most important thing is the gap between the first placed and second placed party, and that remains enormous. What seems to be happening is that Farage's return as Reform UK leader has eaten into both the Tory and Labour votes simultaneously - which makes perfect sense, because Labour's coalition of support over the last two or three years has included a lot of Brexit supporters who may be traditionally Labour, but who have previously voted for UKIP and the Brexit Party, and who voted Tory for the first time under Boris Johnson in 2019.
And yet the above logic only holds true if the Tories remain the second most popular party, or if the Tories and Reform UK remain roughly evenly matched in a distant joint second place. There's a 90%+ likelihood that this will be a routine landslide win for Labour, but with the trajectory we're seeing, the possibility of something unusual happening can't be excluded. If the wheels really come off for the Tories, and if Reform UK surge into a clear and strong second place, and if Labour lose support on their left flank to the Greens, the SNP and the numerous independents who are challenging them in key seats, there's just a chance we could yet end up with a competitive election.
Only by voting SNP can a better Scotland come.
ReplyDeleteKeep voting SNP, keep getting nowhere on independence.
ReplyDeleteIs rule by the thieving lying war mongering unionist parties preferable?! Each to their own.
DeleteIt was by voting SNP that we got progress towards independence.Of course the psychology of each election can be different ,and the winner today can be the loser tomorrow.When the results are declared,the events that influenced one election can be different next time.However,one thing that is evident is that in spite of this,the percentage of Yes voters remains high.I have wanted independence all of my life but it was not well supported by my generation.However,each generation is moving towards the recognition,that an ability to make your own decisions and to have them respected is desirable,natural and normal.Scots are generally international and welcome others,irrespective of where they come from.That view is compatible with a desire to join the rest of the independent countries in the world.
ReplyDeleteAt the present time,the news on the doorstep is that people are a concerned about the cost of living,health care,the environment and so on.Once the SNP effectively explain the relationship of independence to the things that focus the minds of voters,independence will move closer.Meantime the SNP have identified in their election literature 100 ways that they have improved everyday life.Now they need to explain the limitations of devolution and the opportunities provided by independence.
What progress has there been in the last ten years of voting for the SNP?
DeleteWhat the SNP won’t explain is independence would result in austerity. Austerity that would make Tory austerity pale into insignificance.
DeleteIt would, without doubt, be austerity on steroids.
What about the billions Scotland gets from Westminster through the Barnett formula, for example? How would that be replaced?
The SNP and supporters of independence don’t want to talk about these things.
The whole idea of independence is complete and utter lunacy. Thankfully the majority realise that.
In response to the previous comments,the lack of progress in the last twn years is down to the legal challenges and the resistence of the UK government.The only way of challenging that is to greatly increase the percentage of Yes voters.Not voting,or voting for a unionist party,does not help achieving that.While we know that many who will vote labour want independence,there is no way that the UK government will recognise that.
DeleteThe suggestion that independence will result in austerity worse than the tories sounds like unexamined rhetoric that is not based on any factual information.In fact Scotlands resources compare with or exceed those of many small European countries .For example,my wifes country of Finland,that has the same population as Scotland (5.5 million) provides a better quality of life for its citizens than currently provided in Scotland ,and the rest of the UK.Education is free,all citizens have access to excellent health care,the infrastructure and environment is extremely good,nobody needs to sleep on the streets.Finland achieves with fewer resouces than Scotland,
@823
DeleteFree presciptions
Free eye tests
No bridge tolls
No 2 child limit on benefits
Mitigating bedroom tax
Tuition fees still free
Things that benefit everyone in Scotland and show that things can be done differently here with limited powers ae have.
And point towards how much more could be done with independence.
Or maybe you prefer labour to win in Holyrood with FM Sarwar scrapping all of the above and handing back what limited powers holyrood currently have.
And seeing majority of Scotlands citizens worse off with loss of benefits they currently get from a parliament that cares about Scotland
I wonder which of the above benefits Labour will scrap first. I'd go for university fees which they will claim is a middle class subsidy. Prescriptions will then become means tested, again using the middle class subsidy argument.
DeleteThe rest will all go when Labour abolish devolution in its current form which will be hailed as uniting the working class throughout Britain. Then, when Labour award themselves peerages, they can claim not to be middle class. Like Lord Foulkes Baroness Lidl and the rest if the artistically.
Its true that we need to target things more in order to help the poorest.
DeleteThe original poster mentioned progress towards INDEPENDENCE (you know, the word that dare not speak its name in today's SNP). What progress has been made there in the last ten years?
Delete9.56AM: SNP have made good progress on the question of independence including attaining a referendum but it has to be remembered the independence side did lose the referendum on that question.
DeleteThe referendum wasn't achieved under the current SNP leadership but then you know that don't you.
Delete9.56 snp have tried to push for another referendum but westminster ignores/rejects the requests. Using the supreme court.
DeleteWhat do you suggest, take the Irish route of bombs, bullets & insurrection to get there?
Anon at 8.23. Talk us all through the tax revenue raised in Scotland and sent to Westminster and the money we get back for direct expenditure. Those are the figures that count, quite literally. As a matter of fact, confirmed by Westminsters own records, Scotland has been subsiding the rest of the U K for over 60 years. Go and educate yourself.
DeleteAnon 12:16 So no progress then and no prospect of any in the future. Exactly what 9:56 was asking.
DeleteWhat are your plans on how to deal with a westminster government that refuses a referendum and uses the legal system to stop holyrood holding one itself?
DeleteDo nothing except carp and moan from the sidelines?
Plan an armed insurrection and bombing campaign to put pressure on westminster?
What?
You seem to be obsessed by bombs and guns as the only way forward. I'm more interested in creating an SNP that cares more about independence than about men in frocks and that actually campaigns for independence every day, not just when an election is in the offing, before retiring to sit on their backsides for another five years.
DeleteToo wee.
ReplyDeleteToo poor.
Too blessed with natural resources.
Too rich with renewables.
And in your case way Too stupid.
That’s to the Better Together post at 8:23am. Don’t know why it didn’t thread.
DeleteYet, despite all that, no progress whatsoever on the road to independence since 2014.
DeleteSo what. You move on. What’s happened, can’t be undone. Stop carping from the sidelines
DeleteNothing has happened! That's the problem with voting SNP.
DeleteAnon at 8:38, you say I’m stupid.
DeleteYou somehow think independence is a good idea. I’d say you are a gullible fool.
Anon at 12.28. Best you say nothing or you’ll prove his point.
DeleteI might be misunderstanding what you've written but if the Tories and Reform are both in the high teens and Labour c.40% then isn't it more likely that under FPTP that Labour win well over 450 seats? IE Reform and the Tories cancel each other out letting Labour win almost everywhere that it is a Labour-Tory contest?
ReplyDeleteYes, you are misunderstanding, because I specifically said that Labour will remain on course for a landslide if the Tories and Reform stay closely matched in a distant joint second place. The scenario in which I said the election might become competitive is one in which "the wheels really come off for the Tories, Reform UK surge into a clear and strong second place, and Labour lose support on their left flank to the Greens, the SNP and the numerous independents who are challenging them in key seats". Maybe the root of your misunderstanding is that you can't imagine a worse scenario for the Tories than what the polls are currently showing.
DeleteJames' hypothetical scenario probably entails something like the Tories losing another 5% to Reform, Labour losing 5% to Reform, Labour losing a further 5% to Greens. That would give Reform just under 30% and Labour just a little over 30%. The Tories would be down below 15%.
DeleteI don't think it's likely, but it isn't inconceivable.
Thanks to James and Anon1136. Yes that sort of scenario seems highly unlikely.
DeleteWith a Labour government with a big majority looking odds on at the GE, regardless of what happens in Scotland, I know from speaking to friends, many in Scotland are seeing this as the ideal opportunity to vote tactically in order to inflict maximum damage on the SNP.
ReplyDeleteThis, coupled with a split pro Indy vote, appears the perfect storm. I would therefore urge everyone to think carefully and get behind the SNP.
If snp lose a lot of seats, starmer will see an oportunity to take away powers. Even go for making us like england with tuition fees, presciption charges, 2 child limit on benefits back.
DeleteIt will set back independence by well over a decade.
So if people do this, it will be cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Personally speaking im in the group who would do well from tories/starmer but I care about Scotland and all of its citizens.
DeletePeople who want to spite snp are being selfish and dont care about those who will lose out when Starmer decides to take away what we have.
Anon at 12.26. This is my fear. Starmer would kill off devolution given half a chance. Giving SNP a bloody nose gives him that chance and he will take it.
Delete"If snp lose a lot of seats, starmer will see an oportunity to take away powers. Even go for making us like england with tuition fees, presciption charges, 2 child limit on benefits back"
DeleteThat sounds like Project Fear we often accuse unionists of tbh.
We don't need to scare people into voting the way we want them to. In reality if they attempted to take away any powers from the Scottish Parliament that would just dramatically increase support for independence and they would rightly receive significant backlash, not even Keir Starmer is that stupid.
It’s not project fear. Labour want to disempower Holyrood as much if not more than the tories. It’s reality. You facilitate it with your vote then you need to own the consequences.
DeleteWell jackie ballie is already saying we cant afford tuition fees.
DeleteAnd for starmer removing free eye tests and prescription charges puts us being the same as England.
Check Sarwars record on what he has said previously.
Its not project fear, its what will happen.
But dont vote snp, then you have no right to moan when Starmer does do these things. And they will use the compliant media to push it.
As I said in I'm in a group who will weather what ever storm hits us, so it wont affect me if he does do this. I may even benefit from what changes he makes.
But there are lots & lots who are not so lucky
Why would Labour go through all of the effort and backlash of disempowering Holyrood when looking at the polls at the moment they're in with a good shout of obtaining power in 2026?
DeleteAnd if support increases after powers are taken away, and westmisnter still refuses any new referndum, we are where we are now. But with less powers and less benefits from Holyrood.
DeleteHow do you propose getting independence if there is no party with large numbers of mps/msps to push for it.
Go the Ireland way?
@1.09 so you think they wont?
DeleteAre ye a bawheid?
I mean it would be a lot less messy and make considerable more sense if they can manage to win the support of the public and become the next Scottish Government than lose all support in Scotland altogether by doing something so monumentally stupid.
DeleteBy 2026 we will have had 2 years of starmer.
DeleteHe wont hold back on policies for 2 years.
They plan private sector outsourcing for the NHS. Streeting and Starmer got money from hedge fund owner with large stakes in private healthcare. They will want to see their investment pay off.
That and other policies starmer has planned for will turn off scottish voters
Anon at 1.09 and 1.14. Are you just trolling or monumentally naive?
DeleteThe notion that Labour are bigger boogeymen than the Tories is quite frankly ridiculous.
DeleteLabour are ahead in the polls at the moment and there's a good possibility that Anas Sarwar will be our next First Minister (assuming something doesn't force Swinney to resign before 2026, which looking at recent history with the SNP can't be ruled out). If you're Labour and thinking rationally your best course of action is use defeating the SNP in this General Election as a springboard to kick them out of power in 2026.
They wont win power in 2026 by dismantling Holyrood and I think it does us all a disservice to resort to using scare stories. Only positive messages win elections.
Reducing Holyrood to nothing more than a branch office for Westminster is what LAbour want. They have effectively told you that. It doesn’t augur well that you can call this so badly wrong.
Deletei see the Daily record is promoting the tory idea of giving money the the governer general SoSS to spend in Scotland. once again this demonstrates the disrespect to the Holyrood Parliament and labour adopting without question tory policies. Poor sarwar will be told by Murray what is happening.
ReplyDeleteDon't recall that as part of the Vow.
DeleteMind you the Record is pretty irrelevant ten years on. You rarely see anyone with one and it's website is horrible to use.
"Mind you the Record is pretty irrelevant ten years on"
DeleteThey did manage to install the architect of the vow as CEO of the SNP though, I'd call that a success story!
I feel if we could just get support for independence through the crucial 50% barrier and keep it there for a sustained period Starmer would buckle and grant a referendum before the end of the next parliament.
ReplyDeleteWe also need to keep a majority of SNP seats or he will decide he can Ignore Scotland as labour gets the majority of support there.
DeleteThen you woke up?
DeleteNo offence but it's daft to imagine any Prime Minister ever willingly allowing a referendum to take place that they knew they'd almost certainly lose.
They'd never risk going down in history and being remembered as the Prime Minister who allowed the break-up of the United Kingdom to happen. They care too much about their own legacy for that.
Anon@ 2:42, fair enough, but how do you think it’s possible to get independence then?
DeleteWe hae tae mak a richt stooshie .
DeleteAnon @ 2:51 PM Honestly I think we need to forget the Section 30 order approved referendum route.
DeleteNicola Sturgeon I think actually got it right when after the Supreme Court ruling she said that we needed to use this General Election as a de-facto referendum. I'm actually really disappointed that's been completely forgotten about and the SNP have regressed to the old strategy that's been proven not to work.
Obtaining over 50% of the vote at the ballot box for pro-indy parties who all clearly state in their manifestos that a vote for them would be a vote for independence itself (not a referendum) is the only option left available to us.
After that we're in a different position from the present moment opening up other legal avenues we can pursue, we can also use a combination of Parliamentary Action, Popular Action and obtain international recognition to apply pressure onto Westminster to enter into independence negotiations.
To further the point on international pressure: The international community aren't interested in hypotheticals or polls but an actual vote at the ballot box showing that a majority of Scots have voted for independence is a different matter entirely.
Anon @12:51 make holyrood election in 2026 a plebecite referendum and if SNP/green win majority of seats ask for a independence.
DeleteIf westminster grants ignores again look at UN/EU as all routes have been blocked. And if i was SNP leadership I would privately canvass EU countries leaders1 to see in those circumstances if they would recognise Scotland and from that see if UDI was a valid option to go with.
But holyrood election would need to be sign posted it was a plebecite election for it to be valid and the result to have any chance of international recognition.
What are your plans to gain independence?
Anon @ 3:15 PM The only change I would make would be over 50% in support of pro-independence parties rather than a majority of seats. The international community will only care if a majority of voters support the position, anything less than 50% will be disregarded.
DeletePretty sure the Unionists would absolutely not agree to anything less than 50% of votes cast (and rightly so, probably), and would likely seek additional caveats and bars to clear (e.g. % of electorate, dead people, expats, etc)(less rightly so).
DeleteGiven we are some way off likelihood of 50% of votes cast being pro-indy, arguably a de facto referendum for the GE 2014 (especially at a few weeks' notice) would have failed, and so it becomes a moot point whether the SNP should have called it or not. There are arguments both ways.
One argument against calling it would be the likelihood of SNP losing seats over it, but it looks as if they'll lose seats anyway so with hindsight it might have been worth a try as an experiment to set a precedent.
The prospect of losing power at Holyrood must also be considered, of course. In Holyrood, which votes (seat and/or list) would count?
Still, I quite like the idea that every election would become a 'referendum', with power in the hands of the people, not democracy-denying politicians.
"“Every election would become a referendum “" - it's quoting a known phrase
DeleteWake me up when it's 60/40.
DeleteAlba polling at 1% no seats I fear, and if the SNP lose seats in close contested seats because of Alba votes. I think that Alba will sunk for ever. They will also lose their deposits in almost all of their 19 contests a wasted vote. Vote SNP to keep the unionists out,
ReplyDeleteFrom my very recent doorstepping and leaflet delivery the response is very positive. I have never known previously people coming out and thanking me for my efforts.
Why does no one ever mention that the Scottish Greens are standing in 41 seats (over double the amount of Alba), they're polling higher than Alba so will take more votes away from the SNP but they're also predicted to not come anywhere remotely close to actually winning any seats?
DeletePerhaps because they’re not a one man band whose primary objective is harming the SNP? They have policies and beliefs beyond SNP Baaaad
DeleteAnon @ 3:34 PM Are we forgetting that the Greens threw a hissy fit that brought down the previous First Minister?
DeleteRegardless in terms of a Westminster General Election if you believe the Greens to be a pro-independence party then they're doing considerable more to the independence movement than Alba are by standing in a record number of constituencies for them. They're much more likely to be the reason why the SNP loses in many of those 41 constituencies.
On current polling, the Greens should cost* the SNP many more seats than Alba. That will make things clear. Looking forward to that blame game narrative doing the rounds in July.
Delete*Making the unsafe assumption that 100% of Green voters and Alba voters would have otherwise voted SNP. Neither group would. Many environmentalists are unionists (former Green leader Robin Harper comes to mind, who’s gone to Labour now himself) while Alba’s supporters are exactly the scunnered Yessers who are sick of the Indy-free SNP. If neither Alba nor Greens stood, many of us wouldn’t vote at all.
At FMQs today Swinney said 6 new Cal Mac ferries would be in service by 2026. He also said the first of these would be in service by the end of this year.
ReplyDeleteIt’ll be interesting to see if this is Glen Sannox(already 6 years late and counting), or the first of the four being built in Turkey. Obviously if the first Turkish build is in service before Glen Sannox it’ll be the ultimate humiliation for the SG. Certainly not doing the SNP any favours, that’s for sure.
At the end of the day what does any politician ken about ferries? They provided the money and gave the job to seamal / calmac . At least we need ferries, unlike HS2 which has cost billions - a proportion of which Scotland has had to pay. Britnat media doesn't go on about that though.
DeleteGlen Sannox is currently undergoing sea trials and has been since febuary.
Deletehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Glen_Sannox_(2017)
All ships undergo Sea trials prior to handover, once sea trials are signed off, it will be in service.
Simple explanation for sea trials are, that they are like a cars pre delivery inspection, combined with an mot. If they fail on anything contractor has to make it right prior to hand over/sign off.
Nevertheless the contract to build the two ferries was given to Fergusons on the Clyde by Sturgeon and the SNP SG, in an attempt to make political gain, which has backfired so spectacularly. It has cost the taxpayers hundreds of millions and islanders have had years of misery as a result.
DeleteAn absolute scandal.
Glen Sannox is due to be handed to Calmac next month. The first Turkish built boat is due Oct/Nov. The four Turkish boats are half the size of Sannox and Rosa and haven't been subject to design changes and the installation of fancy dual fuel technology.
DeleteIf as expected all six are in service by 2026 then ferries will become a non issue. The whine de jour will be something else.
Nethertheless it safeguarded jobs and critical infrustucture that an independent Scotland would need.
DeleteContrast with the uks 2 aircraft carriers that went overbudget were both delayed and even today both are continualky breaking down. With one being canalbalised for spare parts for the other.
Broon awarded the contracts for them for political gain causing the navy to be underfunded for more useful ships
A scandal.
@3.48
DeleteWe appreciate that like Maggie you would have just let the yard go to the wall and let commercial ship building die in Scotland forever. It is a Tory thing. No doubt the votes will come rolling in in admiration of your consistency...or not.
4:15 if you want to make a contribution to the debate,why not explain the basis of your thinking,so that it can be examined, understood , and commented on by others on this site. Bulshit does not really achieve that.
DeleteIt's you britnats that are the crap merchants. And you're really feart !
DeleteSoar Alba
@ 4.15
DeleteI think not. If the shoe fits wear it.
Some people who pay attention will know that the two delayed ferries were hardly being worked on during two years of Covid and they'll also know that three particular well placed individuals were sacked who were involved in making sure those delays went ahead
DeleteFerguson's shipyard was subject to sabotage from day one
Scotland has two governments remember, and one of them doesn't want a shipyard in Scotland they can't control, like the one they already do
If anybody on this site knew anything about shipbuilding you would know that design issues cause delays. Yes the Ferry contract is delayed and over budget. But in contrast to the 2 carriers which were billions of our tax money over budget. Yet get very little coverage of this fact in media. Perhaps if they did people would be more up in arms how Westminster wasted your money.
ReplyDeleteDeflection, deflection, deflection.
DeleteSet phasers Tae malky
DeleteI think the person who wrote 'Deflection, deflection, deflection' is Sebastian Knowles-Reade. He lives in St Austell and has friends in Nottingham who are crazy. Some of them meet for carvery lunches and go on murder mystery weekends. They are mental.
DeleteLabour manifesto officially confirms brexit
ReplyDeleteWhy wouldn’t it?
DeleteBecause Brexit is a f***ing disaster, would appear to be the obvious answer to that question?
DeleteLabour are simply courting the English nationalist vote.
DeleteSoar Alba
68% of Scotland want to rejoin the EU
Deletehttps://www.believeinscotland.org/poll-shows-68-of-voters-want-an-independent-scotland-to-rejoin-the-eu
Just because you roll over and accept it does mean we all do.
Independence is when not if.
Like NI with reunification demographics will see it happening eventually.
Anon 7.40. Do you understand what democracy is? We a' ken you're feart o genuine Scottish people's opinion.
DeleteSoar Alba
@8:15, as I said Brexit is just a pathetic excuse for having another independence referendum.
DeleteIf you think re joining the eu after breaking away from our biggest trading partner by far is a good idea you are deluded.
Crazy crazy stuff.
As I said 68% of people want to rejoin in Scotland.
DeleteHow is the 77th barracks tonight warmer than Scotland i guess?
Anon@8:47, what BS you spout.
DeleteDoes anybody know what happened to the polling company “Redfield & Wilton”?
ReplyDeleteNot been a poll out from them for a while.
Answered that question last night. They poll as often as donations from wealthy Tories allow. Their results were always suspiciously pro-union, so probably no great loss if the donations have dried up!
DeleteInteresting. Thanks for that info.
DeleteThat poll is only being released in Whitby
DeleteIt was commissioned by some wealthy foreign count
DeletePeople seem to be sick of both parties and leaders and other key functionaries. The way things are going the TV channels will have to redo some leader debates to have a head to head between Farage and that LibDem fella whatever his name is. Not Clegg, is it Compo?
ReplyDeleteOh bu the is sic a kind man , spends all his time looking after his disabled wee boy
DeleteThe soulie.