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Monday, June 17, 2024
A few more constituency profiles
I was a bit surprised by how few polls there were over the weekend, but I suppose media outlets are feeling the pinch these days too. So as there isn't much new to report, now might be as good a time as any to catch up with the latest batch of constituency profiles I've written for The National - East Renfrewshire, East Kilbride and Strathaven and Dunfermline and Dollar.
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As an East Kilbride resistant I'm fairly confident that the seat is going Labour. Lisa Cameron was previously well liked in the area (though ironically not by the local SNP Branch) so her defection to the Tories came as a shock to many. The SNP's chosen candidate to replace her Grant Costello frankly doesn't come across well, have heard a lot of people say "I'm not sure about him".
ReplyDeleteThe Labour candidate Joanni Reid has been doing a lot of campaigning in the area and has even opened a campaign office right in the heart of the East Kilbride Shopping Centre. She also has the name recognition of being the granddaughter of Jimmy Reid. I'd be surprised if she doesn't win tbh.
I assume you are her election agent. Still I remember labour closing hospitals such as Hairmyres and Monklands in Lanarkshire without any new builds.
DeleteWasn't Hairmyres completely rebuilt in 1998, with the new building completed and operational by 2001?
DeleteBoth Hairmyres & Monklands are still open & operational today.
Sorry, my mistake, labour proposed to close them and snp invested in them.
DeleteI very much doubt the late Jimmy Reid would approve of his granddaughter’s support for Starmer. He for many years up to his death was a SNP supporter with the famous comment that he had not left Labour but rather Labour had left him.That reality probably won’t be an impediment to her implying that he would.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much the perception of local candidates themselves will play in this election?
ReplyDeleteDo people consider how well a candidate comes across or is it still mostly the old trope of: You could pin a Party rosette on a monkey & they'll get elected.
I think in some constituencies it could be significant. If a voter is swithering between voting Labour or SNP and the candidate is either well liked and hard working (or not) or not convincing, or a bit of an arsehole, then that may well tip the balance. I tend not to vote for arseholes.
DeleteSometimes, aye. But not usually. Just look at the entitled yet dishevelled crew that Scotland elected last time. There’s no shortage of asses there. In fact, even more so now they’ve had a few more years of gravy.
DeleteDone any Edinburgh ones? Especially Jo Cherry?
ReplyDeleteI've spent a fair bit of today writing two Edinburgh profiles. They haven't been published yet, I'll post the links when they are.
DeleteNice one! Hopefully the two are not south and west. Zero chance of anything interesting happening in either of those. 😉
DeleteWell, I suppose Alba running in south might be interesting. Labour will win the biggest majority in all of Scotlandthere in any case, as usual, freeing up independence minded voters from the pressure to hold their nose, and their boak, for the SNP.
DeleteAnon at 6.41. Thank goodness a party that supports genocide and the two children cap and ongoing austerity is going to get voted in instead of those horrible SNP people.
DeleteHi James
ReplyDeleteApparently there’s a HR poll out showing ALBA at 5%?
My ALBA candidate (WM) in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry tweeted out about it. Have you seen it? I’ve no other info.
Thanks
Norstat
DeleteCan you post the Norstat breakdown?
DeleteThe outcome for Alba stands at around 1.5%
DeleteThey look like they will win nothing
They don’t look like they will win nothing, they absolutely will win nothing. But their aim is not to win something, it is to damage the SNP.
DeleteGood. They need damaged.
DeleteHi Brit boy.
Delete