Unfortunately, YouGov have confirmed the trend shown by the recent Redfield & Wilton poll, and indeed are showing a slightly bigger deficit for the SNP.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
Labour 39% (+5)
SNP 29% (-4)
Conservatives 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Greens 7% (+3)
Reform UK 4% (-1)
SNP 29% (-4)
Conservatives 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Greens 7% (+3)
Reform UK 4% (-1)
It's pretty obvious that the chaos surrounding Yousaf's departure has led to a further pro-Labour swing, but the one crumb of comfort is that it's not the total meltdown suffered by the Tories during and after the Trussmageddon. The big question now is whether it will prove to be any more reversible than the Tories' slump was. Overcoming a 10-point deficit in a few months is a tall order, but it's not totally impossible, and for that reason I want to say something directly to my own party Alba. As I understand it, you have now announced that you will be standing against the SNP in roughly one-third of constituencies in a first-past-the-post Westminster general election - something that no-one could or should have anticipated when you came into being as an explicitly "list-only party" three years ago. It's highly unlikely that anyone will persuade you to stand any of those candidates down, but for pity's sake *please* don't add to them. This is an emergency situation for the independence cause, and we in Alba should be helping to stop Labour, not busily making it easier for them to win seats.
James, ALBA's decision to stand in more constituencies stems from a commitment to offering a true pro-independence alternative to the SNP.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP's recent struggles highlight the need to offer renewal in the independence movement, by giving an alternative electoral option.
You don't "renew the independence movement" by helping to elect a unionist majority. God's sake, people have lost the plot completely.
DeleteI would be totally fine with this, had Alba shown any of the initiative required to actually BE that pro-independence alternative. Instead, they have squandered opportunity after opportunity to seize the agenda and make a mark.
DeleteAlex Salmond declining to stand in the Rutherglen by-election was strategically catastrophic for the party. If he had placed a strong second or third there (which was highly achievable in the context), Alba would likely now have a tangible base of support on which to conceivably fight a general election campaign, and do so without the country roaring with laughter at their prospects.
Instead, the party remains a floundering, marginal force, and needlessly so. If you think the SNP get sidelined during Westminster elections, just wait for what will happen to a party that struggles to get past a couple of points in the polls on a good day.
Their chances are dismal. And it could finish the party off for good if the narrative beds in that they cost the SNP seats. I know that many in the party do not want to hear that, or they believe it would be unfair to dole out the blame to Alba in those circumstances, when the SNP has been dragging its feet on independence for years.
But the fairness of the matter is a moot point. It wasn't fair to blame the SNP for the demise of Callaghan's moribund government in 79. But the SNP still didn't truly recover until Salmond's second stint as leader over two decades later.
If a party as small as Alba gets saddled with that sort of blame, the party's over. It's as simple as that.
Anonymous @11.50pm A very good comment imo. I also feel that Rutherglen was Alba's defining moment. A glaringly missed opportunity similar to the SNP's meek 2017 GE campaign which has set the tone for uncertainty, confusion and odd decision making.
DeleteAlba's aim has to be picking up list seats at HR26. They are setting themselves up for such a messy humiliation in the GE that the party may be a spent force by then.
While I'm on, I'll admit I appear to have got a previous prediction badly wrong. In the late Yousaf era I suggested that if he ditched the Greens and got some dissenters into the cabinet that 50% of the party's lost support would return overnight.
Hmm... Humble pie for me for breakfast!
Anonymous at 11.50
DeleteVery perceptive. I voted at the National Council to stand in Rutherglen for the reasons you state.
It was strange because up until late June I thought the plan was to stand in Rutherglen and I was trying to make preparations for it. Get the absent voter register etc.
There has been little campaigning or forward momentum since but Alba were actually making very good progress with SNP 1 voters in terms of those voters giving Alba a high rank in the STV elections.
I did a lot of analysis and made presentations on the progress Alba were making
Rutherglen was indeed where it all went wrong.
DeleteUtter rubbish. Alba not standing in Rutherglen proved the "Alba is splitting the vote" to be the lie it is. They didn't stand and look what happened - the indy vote stayed at home and Labour won on a lower number of votes than they got when they were trounced by the genuine independence campaigner, Ferrier. Rutherglen also allowed ISP a free run - Alba would have been attacked for standing against them - which allowed them and us to gauge the pro indy support for an alternative party other than Alba.
DeleteThere seems to be an odd confliction of arguments with people simultaneity saying: Alba shouldn't contest Westminster elections and it all went wrong when they didn't contest a Westminster by-election... what?
DeleteYou offer no credible plan. You therefore offer no alternative. You will win no seats in the G E and not even list seats in the next Holyrood election. Your leader is the most unpopular politician in Scotland and if you arithmetically lose seats to unionists you will set Indy back by at least 10 years. Bin A S and honour your original commitment to being a list only party and you may survive.
Delete"you will set Indy back by at least 10 years"
DeleteConsidering we're pretty much in the same (or arguably worse) position now as we were 10 years ago that's not saying much.
An article yesterday Alex Salmond said there was 18 candidates announced and he is expecting 6 more candidates by the end of the month making a total of 24.
ReplyDeleteAlba is in no fit state to run 24 campaigns. And at 2% in the WM polls they have no chance of winning
The candidates are cannon fodder.
Salmond is clearly no longer rational but consumed by anger and ego.
Why do you stay in Alba James ?
I agree, why is James still a member of ALBA?
DeleteDid you watch Question Time? Salmond spoke with such purpose and clarity. Flynn, while actually coming across as charismatic and likeable, presented the now customary SNP evasive waffle.
DeleteUntil the SNP decidedly ditch Sturgeon's identity nonsense and get back on track, they'll be too much of an anathema to too many voters to stage a proper recovery. Until then, a vote for Alba is better than the alternative of no vote at all.
This.
DeleteAlso standing in the election increases these candidates profiles, presumably taking part in debates, maybe even getting a Party Political Broadcast televised etc. The electorate need to actually know that Alba exists and what they stand for in order for them to have any hope of winning list votes in 2026. You don't achieve electoral success by not taking part in elections.
Completely agree James. The only supermajority Alba will be contributing to will be a unionist one.
ReplyDeleteUnless the SNP dream up and implement some popular new policies quickly the Westminster election will unfortunately be damage limitation. The tsunami of anti-Tory feeling is inevitably going to benefit Labour, and you can add on a sizeable chunk of soft Yes former SNP voters who will give them their vote, but I don't see massive enthusiasm for Starmer like there was for Blair. It could well be a short honeymoon if they don't deliver much change.
There's a certain grim irony to the fact that if Scotland finally does 'go back home to Labour', it won't be under a Corbynite leader with progressive policies and a radical reforming agenda, but under Blairism on steroids and without even the pretence of hope or change - politics of the sort that drove people away from New Labour in the first place.
ReplyDeleteIt's such a typically 'worst of all worlds' Scottish outcome, you almost have to laugh.
I’m glad it’s not a hypothetical “good” Labour government in wait. That really would be a problem for independence. Many Scots just want better government, and if the UK delivered it they would see no point in independence. A bad Labour government, meanwhile, snatches away that hope.
DeleteMy own support for independence comes from the overwhelming imbalance in the UK where England is so grossly oversized compared to the rest of us. We get their government, like it or not, whatever it is. Even a “good” UK government is just luck.
Fortunately for us, Starmer’s vicious blue Labour will put the wind in our sails sooner or later.
There is no such thing as a "good" UK government for Scotland. Scotland is England's colony - there to be subservient, used and abused.
DeleteIfs, spouting your colony nonsense eh.
DeleteI don't believe this poll for 1 second, who were the asking exactly? I've said for months now that come polling day I expect the SNP to retain all of their seats. I stand by my prediction even though I have taken huge personal abuse for it..
ReplyDeleteIt's a stupid and wrong prediction, Declan, but no-one should receive personal abuse even when they're being stupid and wrong. Let's hope it eases up.
DeleteAgreed on both counts.
DeleteAlba or no, the SNP’s in for a slump as the chickens come home to roost.
Declan people like you kept saying Sturgeon would deliver Indyref2. Seems like you never learn.
DeleteElectoral Calculus has it as Labour 41 seats and SNP 8.
ReplyDeleteCan you imagine 41 Starmers parading around Scotland as though they own us all? Alister Jack is nothing compared to what they'd be like. With a few of these "Scottish" MPs from places like Chelsea, Southend, Croydon, Mayfair, Pratts Bottom, Rotting in the Wold, and other such clearly Scottish places.
Know your place Scotland.
DOWN ON YOUR KNEES I SAID
The upside: every one of those awful Slab MPs—familiar faces among them—will be a dagger in the hope soft No voters have for a UK that respects and appreciates them. Let their relationship wither like ours has with the SNP.
DeleteThe smart thing for a UK government to do would be to rule Scotland with compassion. But they won’t, and while we know it their voters don’t… yet.
Please, the “soft NO” vote is vanishingly small. The outcome of this election will be to greatly strengthen the “ Scotland is the same as the rest of the UK” believers. This solidifies the “ NO” vote. The end is nigh.
DeleteThere is no end to Scotland. We will be free when we find it in ourselves.
DeleteIf true, this means that about half of people who would vote yes in an indyref would not vote SNP. That level of disconnect between the SNP and independence is happening whether Alba stand candidates or not.
ReplyDeleteTo chicken out of fielding a full slate of candidates at the very time Scotland is crying out for a credible pro indy alternative to the SNP would be a dereliction of duty.
The question is then whether Alba can become a credible alternative. It certainly can't by not fielding candidates.
Absolutely. The disconnect is already there whatever Alba does. I doubt many of us believe they are going to make a breakthrough but at least it is an alternative to a spoiled ballot or abstention because there's no way we're going to vote for the SNP which is now a unionist party in all but name.
DeleteAlba’s self immolation won’t be what sinks the SNP majority. That ship already sailed.
DeleteI’ll certainly not vote SNP. They’ve had all they’re getting from me. Not until they clean up and get back to independence.
Agreed that ship has sailed. The small parties should form an independence alliance , invite the SNP to join, and stand in every election and in every constituency. If the SNP won’t cooperate hell mend them.
DeleteAlba already did that: Scotland United. The SNP ignored it, the Greens detest Alba obviously, and I don’t recall hearing whether even ISP was up for it.
DeleteAgree with this. Alba standing against SNP would only split the independence vote if the SNP were a genuinely independence party. At present it's a devolutionist party, and not overly concerned with even maintaining the present level of devolution. Alba is the only unambiguously committed pro-independence party in Scotland. By standing, regardless of who else is standing, Alba isn't splitting the pro-independence vote, but maintaining it, in however low numbers currently.
DeleteOther commenters have asked whether James Kelly plans to leave Alba. James, if you are considering doing so, the only hope motivating you that I can see is the hope of changing the SNP from within. Labour Party members have been trying that in their own party since the 1990s and what have they got? (This is apart from the SNP's authoritarianism, which, were they in power when independence came, would ensure that, far from the people being able to choose who they wanted to govern them, all opposition was crushed by means of frame-ups and thought control.) For Scottish independence supporters like yourself, the choice is between supporting the SNP in the hope of reforming it, or sticking with Alba and trying to build support for it.
I thought Alba's mission was to exploit the list vote and help build a pro-indy supermajority in Holyrood. One might not agree with that mission but it was at least a coherent plan and clearly aiming at maximising indy seats and shutting out unionists.
ReplyDeleteTo now stand against the SNP is not what it said on the tin, in my view, and I just don't buy the idea that Alba somehow 'have to' field candidates to be credible. On the contrary it rather makes it seem their original foundational Holyrood pitch was just a sham, getting people to lend them their list votes on a false premise.
Now, rather than shutting out unionists, they will be helping unionists gain seats. As I say, not what it said on the tin.
To be fair to them: did they promise in 2021 to remain a list only party forever?
DeleteAnd while we’re holding parties to former promises, where’s our multi-stage veto-proof plan from the SNP?
Time moves on. Every election is a new pitch.
I am saying Alba would not lose face or credibility for not standing in the general election (as the earlier poster implied would certainly be the case), when they were supposedly set up to win list seats at Holyrood.
DeleteMaybe you are right, every election is a new pitch. In 2021 it was to exclude unionists from winning seats, in 2024 it is enabling them.
It isn't enabling anything, the SNP today are every bit as unionist as Labour and the Tories, the only difference being that the latter two are honest about their unionism.
DeleteDepends on the level within the SNP. I reckon their regular party members and campaigners are still good Yessers. The higher ups, however, are devolution for life as you say. Indy is the eternal carrot that maintains their fiefdoms.
DeleteThe SNP can and must be saved. Right now though, well, we’re still seeing Nicola’s destruction play out.
No, Lurker, the original pitch was not a sham. Maybe you have a short memory, but to remind you, Nicola Sturgeon demanded that we vote SNP on constituency and list ballots. She wrecked the idea of a super majority just as she enabled unionists to take over local government by insisting that we vote for SNP and NO OTHER CANDIDATES. James Kelly warned against this plan and made clear the consequences.
DeleteAlba is wholly about independence. Their independence strategy in 2021 was for a supermajority. That could have worked easily in 2021, to remove a swathe of unionists and totally change the narrative with a pro indy opposition as well as government. That would have robbed the BBC, media and opposition of their weekly ability to use FMQs to attack independence and instead allowed a genuine pro indy party to hold the SNP to account, ask pro indy questions etc. However, that strategy relied on the fact the SNP was high in the polls and was going to sweep the constituencies, meaning a million second SNP votes could only elect unionists. That's why, *for independence* and to address Brexit, we needed that second pro indy party in 2021. The SNP went hysterical with abuse and smears and scuppered that strategy. That was the only year it could ever work, as by 2026, with no delivery and the shitshow the SNP is now, those conditions will no longer exist. In 2024, had we wanted a de facto WM referendum, Scotland United would have been the strategy *for independence*. Again, the SNP scuppered that. Alba will use whatever strategy it thinks is best for independence in 2026, but the chances of that being working with the SNP on an SNP 1/ Alba 2 strategy seems low to non-existent at this point. The SNP have done nothing but scupper our best independence chances for a decade now.
DeleteWhat I recall is that when Alba was founded, independence voters were assured that Alba was not there to take SNP seats, but to use otherwise underused SNP list votes to boost the chances of a pro-indy majority. No doubt many voters did give them their list vote, on that basis.
DeleteIt now feels that those assurances were a sham, if we are now being told that Alba would 'certainly' not be 'credible' if they failed to stand against the SNP in a general election, splitting the pro-indy vote and endangering pro-indy seats.
I think being a list only party is too restrictive for most parties. Moreover the list system may be changed because parties have tried to manipulate it.
ReplyDeleteIs the Holyrood voting system devolved or reserved for Westminster to fiddle with?
DeleteWhen Alex Salmond begun this party we warned what he was going to do and he denied it, now he's doing it and we're hearing excuses for his doing it, and when he helps Labour make gains he'll make the excuse it's the fault of the SNP and guess who'll back him up
ReplyDeleteLabour
Dr Jim - one minute people like you are mocking Alba for being irrelevant and only getting a tiny vote percentage. Next minute you are trying to blame Alba for everything that Sturgeon's gang have done. You are a sad joke and it is numpties like you and your nicophancy that allowed it all to happen. You cannae accept the blame so you thrash about blaming Salmond and Alba even though the Greens take a lot more votes. The SNP membership are to blame for allowing this situation - it's as simple as that. Sturgeon's gang should have been booted out of the SNP years ago when it was obvious they had no intention of doing anything about independence.
DeleteToo wee
DeleteToo divisive
Too terrifying
Too tiny
DeleteToo irrelevant
Too CATASTROPHIC TO THE ENTIRE CAUSE OF INDEPENDENCE TELL THE PEOPLE
The problem goes deeper than the electoral strategies of two Scottish parties in a deeply flawed FPP election.
ReplyDeleteNeither party has faced the monumetal task of explaining to voters the mountain that has to be climbed to gain independence from a British state which regards the issue as being outside the acceptable boundaries of it's very limited 'democracy'.
Even if an indy majority were to be gained, amongst all this floundering by the parties, what is the strategy when, like with Brexit, our expressed democratic majority is simply ignored ?
Does either of the parties face up to this reality.....?
The mountain to be climbed is true majority support for independence among the Scottish people. There is no shortcut to independence on a mere plurality of the vote.
DeleteWhen Scots are ready, the paths will open up. The most obvious one being a plebiscite election worth its name. The kind which makes 2015 look like a picture of what was next to come.
Anon at 8:17.
DeleteThat's all very well but demographic changes and population shifts are taking place throughout the country, most noticeably outside the Central Belt. It may be true that most people under a given age are in favour of independence but there are constituencies where that age group cannot afford to stay, so the demographic profile changes drastically. The Borders, Moray and Dumfries & Galloway are good examples. I would suggest that it will become increasingly difficult to elect a pro-independence MP in Argyll, Orkney, Sutherland, Perthshire and much of the rest of the country beyond the Centeal Belt.
A plebiscite election isn’t won by seats. It’s a referendum in all but name. We would win it by sheer number of votes, not Westminster style fannying about with “marginals” and swing districts. A yes vote is a yes vote.
DeleteBut first the tide must turn.
The criticisms of Alba can be argued to be unreasonable because in a free society any party has the right stand for election. The SNP does not own their votes.
ReplyDeleteCorrection, anon: the SNP does not own *our* votes. 😉
DeleteI would disagree that there was much chaos over Humza stepping down. The succession was quick and remarkably painless. His stepping down was supposedly, according to many here, essential for an increase in support for the SNP, not an immediate 5% drop.
ReplyDeleteI will continue to vote for the SNP. They are the only realistic proposition for Scotland. Starmer represents, more than anything, the British State. His almost inevitable victory will be a victory for centre right bureaucratic authoritarianism. If the runes are correct his majority will be such that he will have virtually no opposition in parliament. If Scotland votes Labour, Scotland will be his footstool and he won't take his shoes off. The existential threat of Scottish independence will be taken off the table by sleight of hand and legislative changes. The deranged warblings of Ffoulkes and Co will be listened to.
The situation is perilous and if the independence movement falters now I don't see an easy road back onto the destination. We will have chosen division and rivalry over purpose. If we do that I suppose we deserve to lose.
A gloomy prognostication I know but one needs to be realistic.
Don’t worry. Your first para was anything but realistic. Cheer up!
DeleteThe Infected Blood Inquiry is just one of many days of shame for the British State. The UK is a shithouse of a country run by shitty politicians who care little for their citizens and focus on their own enrichment and advancement. Yet people want to keep sending SNP politicians down to the heart of the shithouse in Westminster. Why - what do they ever achieve other than enriching themselves just like the rest of the shitty Westminster politicians.
ReplyDeleteThe latest wheeze now for Sturgeon's gang is to hand out the FM position to each other so that they can all get a lifetime FM pension - the Holyrood equivalent of the House of Lords - Yousaf in his thirties now collects over £50k a year until he dies. Some numpties actually thought Yousaf was interested in independence.
Emily Bishop's back and she's angryyyyyyy!
DeleteThe troll is back and it is stupidddddddddddddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!
DeleteIFS, and independence would solve all our problems. Utter bulshit. Thankfully people like you remain in a minority. You need to get a grip!
DeleteIFS......Flute, whiste, bowler hat and drum
DeleteKC: who are you trying to impress here exactly?
DeleteTwo Britnat trolls with one difference.
DeleteTroll at 9.37am is a Britnat, accepts he is a Britnat and votes for Britnat parties.
SNP Troll at 10.24am disnae know he is a Britnat because he votes for a Britnat party.
KC the Britnat troll at 9.37am - I have never said independence would solve all our problems. Trouble with Britnats like you is you like to lie and lie often.
SNP Troll at 10.24am - you are a simple prick - away and have a go at playing a whistle, a flute and a drum at the same time. Complete diddy.
It's a bad move but it's also irrelevant judging by the poll. Assuming no Alba option and SNP still losing numbers.
ReplyDeleteIn theory the Lib Dems could lose voted to Libertarian party or Labour to whatever sounds most socialist on paper. It struggles to get three figures. I don't see Alba doing more damage than those parties.
About 30k votes spread about 60 seats isn't going to make much odds in a national swing.
Even at that level it may well cost the SNP seats.
DeleteIt isn't 'costing' the SNP seats. They don't own them. This is the sort of entitled attitude which destroyed Labour in Scotland for two decades. Start earning the voters trust by getting on with independence or get lost.
DeleteAbsolutely true 10:10. But also true that the media narrative will be whatever manipulative bullshit they want it to be, like the 1979 tartan Tory myth.
DeleteI’ll vote as I see fit. And I won’t be surprised by the toxic fairytales the media pumps out on the night.
Don't vote Labour/Tory/Libdem or any British state party and that includes the SNP. If you are tempted to vote SNP just ask yourself where is the promised de facto referendum. The SNP are a phoney party of independence - they are not just useless - they are charlatans.
ReplyDeleteSwinney and Forbes are prattling on about economic growth being their top objective. They both know that all the macroeconomic powers are held in Westminster and the Bank of England and the Scotgov has only very small microeconomic powers to influence the economy in Scotland. Independence is what is required but they both choose to do nothing.
Look hard if you want but you won't find any post from me saying the solution to the SNP's problems was to ditch Yousaf and bring Forbes back in to government. Swinney has always been known as a devolutionist and Forbes gave no indication she wanted independence during last years hustings. The real problem for the SNP is that more and more independence supporters are seeing Sturgeon's gang for what they truly are - and that ain't people who want independence.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that Forbes is a member of Sturgeon's gang is recognisably delusional to anyone who doesn't fill their brains with the lunatic witterings of that Conservative and Unionist from Bath.
DeleteAnon at 12.30pm - I have never said Forbes was part of Sturgeon's gang - so why are you wittering about it? Just trolling/lying because you have got nothing else to say.
DeleteHad I remained as Alba Organisation Convener my plan would have been
ReplyDeleteSalmond - Aberdeen North
If Kenny moved it would be to Edinburgh East and Musselburgh his previous MSP area and also where Ash Regan is MSP
Neale - Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
And either Tasmina in Glasgow South or Eva in A&G
Then to get TV time and PBB I’d have had 8 paper candidates. But they really would be paper. Not announced - just at GE time the nomination papers would quietly be put in. But no publicity or campaigning at all.
But not to be
You've been a loss to Alba Denise, and not just you either!
DeleteYou're demonstrating far, far more political nous than Salmond is these days, Denise. It's a shame you were sidelined in favour of a coterie of yes men and assorted Salmond family members.
DeleteHow different Alba could be if the leadership took constructive criticism on board.
James, the SNP will never learn to stand up and walk straight if you don't let them fall.
ReplyDeleteEssentially, yes.
DeleteThe SNP membership needs to wake up and throw these users out.
As James said, this YouGov poll follows / confirms a trend.
ReplyDeleteIt isn't something new, the SNP vote & Lab vote polling shares have been moving in opposite directions for some time now.
The change of SNP leadership is positive, just look at the approval % for HY compared to our new leader / FM and depute FM.
There is no magic solution to our current plight. The party is going through a bad patch resulting from both our past mistakes under the last 2 FMs plus Labour's renewal (don't kid yourself it ain't real) under its present leadership.
Hopefully by the next Scottish parliament elections in 2026 things will be again on the up. Unite and see this through.
Brian
Agree. The change of leadership was a positive move by SNP top team since Swinney has a decent approval rating.
DeleteHe’s still going to have a rough election on his hands, though. Better warm up those “fewer losses than we expected” narratives, fella(s). 😉
DeleteSwinney's not standing for election. I think Flynn is their Westminster leader.
DeleteSorry James, I get what you are saying. However, You need to understand that large numbers of independence supporters seem hell-bent on punishing the SNP this time round. They will either vote for an alternative independence party, spoil their papers, or not bother to turn out. One thing is sure - they won't under any circumstances vote SNP. I have supported independence and voted SNP consistently for more than 30 years. I feel so let down. I do understand where you are coming from, but personally I just cannot bring myself to vote SNP now. I feel so badly let down. Your implied "Vote SNP to keep the unionists out!" argument sounds so much like the old "Vote Labour to keep the tories out!" (how did that go?).
ReplyDeleteI will concede that Alba and other indy parties may well be blamed for letting the unionists in (as the SNP were often blamed for letting the tories in). The point is if that many independence supporters will not vote for the SNP anyway. Not a chance. If you don't believe me, wait and see. RE: Alba, ISP etc - these people should still have a chance to vote for independence in some way. Personally, the unionists will be discredited of they win seats on a very poor turn out. It will be obvious that they did not win the popular vote. Something the SNP can build on, if and when they eventually sort themselves out.
Re. "the unionists will be discredited of they win seats on a very poor turn out. It will be obvious that they did not win the popular vote." That's not how elections work. The popular vote & turnout are basically irrelevant. All that matters is the number of seats won. Just how life is.
DeleteBrian
Says who?
DeleteNo forced narrative is going to force so many of us scunnered Yessers back into the polling booths. Your party betrayed us. Now it’s time to feel our message where it hurts.
I'm not going to get into the merits of voting SNP or otherwise, but the idea that anyone will be discredited by a depressed turnout is hopelessly naive. Turnout is treated as little more than a psephologists' curiosity. It always has been, and it always will be.
DeleteYou can vote how you want. I'm certainly not going to try to persuade anyone to vote SNP. But I'd recommend at the very least keeping the sick bucket handy for the next several years, as Jackie Baillie's rotund smirking face is beamed into your living room, over and over, to triumphantly inform you that you have abandoned independence for now and all time.
I know I'll certainly have to strengthen my stomach for that.
I guess what's the better outcome: That or let another 10 years past with us still going: Just give the SNP another chance, they'll definitely use that mandate this time!
DeleteI can't see why commentors even have Alaba on their radars. Reform UK look set to get more votes in Scotland, so presumably they will be splitting 'the unionist vote', as if normal people are obsessed with 'the unionist vote' and 'the nationalist vote'.
ReplyDeleteBalaba Schmalaba. Get back on your pills, doc! It’s what the handsome young consultant telt ye.
DeleteOne thing's for sure: The SNP are set for a hell of a beating, and they look like they don't have the where-withall to deal with it.
ReplyDeleteAh, they’ll spin it and delude themselves. Then they’ll lose Holyrood, too. Now that Kate’s on board, there is no opposition wing ready to take over. Their fate is sealed.
Delete1983: SDP/ Liberal Alliance, 25.4% of the vote, winning 23 seats out of 650.
ReplyDeleteSNP at the tipping point of losing in the same way, just as we have previously won FPTP with super efficiency of votes. This can be reversed, but Swinney will have to earn back past SNP voters to do so.
Brian
"Swinney will have to earn back past SNP voters"
DeleteGlad someone has said that.
A lot of SNP supporters seem to just use the guilt trip approach or the blackmail card of 'if the SNP loses indy is dead' argument. It's good some realise that if the SNP are to turn this around it will be up to the SNP to earn peoples vote back.
They certainly do need to win votes back. The guilt-trip strategy didn't work for Labour. It didn't work for Clinton against Trump. And it won't work for the SNP now.
DeleteBut while it should never be deployed as a strategy for shoring up votes, there's still a kernel of truth in it. As you can see from the owner of this blog - a member of various Alba committees, no less - it's not just SNP supporters who see a very real danger of independence being mortally wounded, regardless of whether the SNP try to exploit that for political gain.
Both things are true.
DeleteThe SNP need to re-energise those that have voted for them in the past and if they don't and they are reduced to a handful of seats then independence is put on the back burner. The Unionists will claim the votes of those who support independence but have now voted Labour and say that this proves independence is dead. Of course it doesn't. The SNP could come storming back in 2026 and an unpopular Labour government could fuel the fires.for fresh demands.
I can't see Starmer having a long honeymoon period but if he does then 2026 could go south too and then independence really would be scuppered for years.
Everybody must mak their ain choice . I get it that folk are disillusioned wi the SNP . However , we should bear in mind how a massive loss of SNP seats at WM will be spun by all the Britnat media.
ReplyDeleteIt is profoundly depressing that the WM fptp system will swing us from a large Tory majority to a massive Labour one . And it is likely to be even more Blairite than Blair was.
What is the point 20, 30 or 40 "Scottish " Labour MPs if they're going to have a majority in the hundreds?
Much better to vote SNP in WM but use different options for HR in 26.
Also I worry that Labour will take steps to emasculate Scots parliament .
The story has already been spun - there is a great big disconnect between people who are in favour of independence and the SNP, as a party sales-pitch it has gone stale, and people are very dissillusioned with the SNP.
DeleteBesides, what difference is there between 40 SNP MPs and 10 against 400+ Labour MPs jeering at them from the government bench?
DeleteNo power for us Scots. Not without an independence-minded party, willing to do what it takes to free us from that hateful place.
If you don’t understand the importance of optics you really are stupid.
DeleteAnon at 1.23pm says vote SNP for better optics. Or try Specsavers.
DeleteWhy are you lying about what was said? He made a valid point. No surprise you’re the one with the half wit response.Back to your toys you silly billy.
DeleteAnon at 3.01pm the zero wit troll trolling all over SGP btl.
Delete5 years ago at the 2019 UK GE Sturgeon said vote SNP for indeoendence. What did we get:
ReplyDelete1. Sturgeon asked Boris Johnston for a sec 30 and was told to pissof once again - which was what she expected.
2. Jan 2020 Sturgeon makes her surrender speech where she says she will not carry out an illegal referendum.
3. Sturgeon then proceeds to get the UK Supreme Court to declare it illegal for Holyrood to hold a referendum. The court's decision makes clear Scotland's status in the U.K. - a colony of England.
4. Sturgeon then declares the next UK GE will be a de facto referendum.
5. Sturgeon resigns and the SNP then have the excuse not to proceed with the de facto referendum that was promised. SNP members, like the numpties they are, just meekly accept this whole sham/con trick.
6. 2024 - vote SNP to stop the Tories says the SNP - what a joke when everybody knows it is Labour the SNP need to stop. No mention of a referendum or independence. The SNP is now a photocopy of Labour and is not a party of Scottish independence.
Ifs, you’d be better just giving up on the nonsense of independence, it ain’t happening!
DeleteIn the real world we were faced with global pandemic and a concerted unionist effort to discredit the SNP. Only the thickest would fall for it, and here you are.
DeleteAnon at 1.26pm - I note you do not actually dispute any specific points I posted. There ain't a pandemic right now - so why no de facto referendum?
DeleteYou are just a troll.
The "concerted Unionist effort to discredit the SNP " all came from the unionists in the SNP. Did MI5 make the £600k disappear?
You didn’t make points. Go and work out what making a point means, then come back. What a silly billy you are.
DeleteAnon at 3.03pm the zero wit troll who trolls all over SGP btl.
DeleteIf you're an SNP supporter shouldn't you be more annoyed at the Greens than Alba according to this poll?
ReplyDeleteAlso can we move on from living in denial with a 'nothing to see here, all is fine' attitude? We need to stop acting like Trump supporters and spout 'fake news' whenever there's a poll likes this one. This poll and others like it should be a wakeup call for the SNP and result in urgent demands for a radical change in direction in order to prevent a humiliating defeat in the General Election.
Greens are a quite different politics.
DeleteIs that all you’ve got, Scotgov bot? Greens are “different” so the rules just don’t apply, eh?
DeleteI recently found out that Kenny MacAskill isn't contesting East Lothian, but is standing elsewhere. Alba's East Lothian candidate is now another ex-SNP ex-MP, the one who lost the seat in 2017.
ReplyDeleteThe cherry top, though, is that MacAskill's going to contest Alloa and Grangemouth, where Eva Comrie announced an intention to stand back in March.
What a farce.
Guess they see Grangemouth as an opportunity. Trouble there is both Eva Comrie and Labour are also in the hunt to take it.
DeleteWho will win the blame? Place your bets!
The SNP is pro devolution-they backed it in the late 1990’s under Blair’s new government. True independence means complete disengagement and separation from the English-that is the fundamentalists view.
ReplyDeleteTrouble is most soft yesser’s or gradualists want to retain some links with rUK-that’s why the SNP have been electorally successful recently.
It’s the appalling record in actual government that is costing them votes now.
If you want real independence you have to vote Alba.
When Is Sunak calling this bloody election? As soon as Starmer Is in government, this Labour bubble will be destroyed quickly
ReplyDeleteThe last day possible, in the depths of winter 2025, ofc. Might as well make a few old proles die while shuffling to the polls.
DeleteI saw Nov 14th touted as a likely date, so pretty much to the wire.
DeleteYou have to admire the brass neck of the SNP trolls telling us if we don't vote SNP it is our fault that there will be Unionist MPs. These are the same people who by following the SNP " Both Votes SNP " and "vote SNP and no other party " policies gave us a load of Unionist MSPs and councillors.
ReplyDeleteThese are the same people who gave us Humza Yousaf by voting for the continuity candidate and then a year later accepting continuity candidate 2.0 John REDACTOR MAN Swinney as FM. Sturgeon's boy and then Sturgeon's cover up man.
You can admire their brass neck but not their stupidity.
James is neither an SNP troll, nor stupid, IfS.
DeleteAnon at 12.53pm - I already was aware of that but I am now aware you are a troll.
DeleteIfs calling people stupid. Delicious irony. You are recognised as a half wit and we simply laugh at you. Back to your toys you silly billy
DeleteAnon at 3.05pm a zero wit troll and I feel sorry for you.
DeleteI’ll abstain.
ReplyDeleteIf Alba were in my constituency, i’d vote them, but naebdy to vote for now.
SNP can get tae.
Then you are a unionist.
DeleteBaa. @4:14
DeleteSo unionist share of the vote 63%.
ReplyDeleteSounds about right.