When I was looking for the data tables of Survation's new Scottish poll a couple of days ago, I stumbled across something really interesting. Plaid Cymru have commissioned two constituency-level polls from Survation which shows themselves on course to win two tough and competitive seats at the general election.
Ynys Môn:
Plaid Cymru 39%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 26%
Reform UK 4%
Liberal Democrats 1%
Carmarthen:
Plaid Cymru 30%
Conservatives 24%
Labour 24%
Independent - Edwards 10%
Reform UK 4%
Liberal Democrats 4%
The Ynys Môn figures seem almost too good to be true, because at Westminster level Plaid Cymru haven't held the constituency since 2001. It was Labour held between 2001 and 2019, and it's been Tory since 2019. You'd think with the current Labour surge that it would be Labour's for the taking, but the poll almost seems to depict a parallel world in which the Tories are proving resilient enough to conveniently split the non-Plaid vote right down the middle.
In Carmarthen, it looks from the list of candidates that Plaid face the particular problem of the man who was elected as their MP in 2019 standing against them this time as an independent. So, again, it would be remarkable if the Labour/Tory vote conveniently split in such an even way that Plaid were still able to win. Constituency polling has a track record of being less reliable than national polling, so perhaps we should be a bit sceptical about the above numbers, but on the face of it they're very encouraging.
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To what extent are constituency-level polls considered reliable? Isn't there the potential for weighting error?
ReplyDeleteAnon at 1.47pm: Apologies if you're genuine, but the content of your comment was suspiciously similar to our resident unionist troll. If you want to post that sort of comment, please use a name.
ReplyDeleteInteresting figures. Maybe Labour’s victory margin at the GE won’t turn out as big as a lot are predicting. If this were to turn out the case, it would surely benefit the SNP.
ReplyDeleteYah, yah, surely. Settling into the rôle. We can all agree. Etc etc.
DeleteThe SNP are surely the most incompetent, corrupt party in British political history.
ReplyDeleteHigh standards for corrupt and immortal. The Liberals Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe, after all. So no, I wouldn’t rate the SNP as champions in that respect, either.
DeleteUgh phone. Immoral. The Liberals were of course very mortal indeed.
DeleteAccording to the WGD mad liar Irish Skier the polls are all wrong. The SNP is not as low as the polls are making out. In fact the truth is the SNP support is as good as ever he says. So there you are all you SNP supporters no need to worry - the Skier says all is well and as we all know Skier is an expert on polls and just about most things.
ReplyDeleteI’d like to think he’s right but I doubt it. Can only see the GE as damage limitation. There needs to be dramatic change after the election though, probably a change of leader. The SNP need to get it right before the Holyrood election.
DeleteSteve P: in judgement of SNPs performance it would be expected that the number of MPs would fall to lower levels. A fptp system is capable of seat loss that is no linear in vote share decrement.
DeleteIFS, well that's definitely not true because even if only 3 or 4 % of SNP voters have defected to Alba, which the Nicophants keep telling us is true, that's still 3 or 4% they can't afford to lose because they're not going to replace those votes from the ranks of unionists or English settlers.
DeleteYou’re forgetting: Skier charts only go up, up, up. Don’t overthink it.
DeleteSkier along with other SNP/WGD numpties also used to claim that the reduction in the number of SNP members was also false and it was all just made up nonsense by Alba and the Britnat media. They quickly went silent on the subject when first Britnat Murray Foote resigned and then Britnat Peter Murrell resigned in disgrace for lying about the numbers when it transpired about 50k members had left. The numpties had been actually posting the lie that membership numbers had increased by about 11k.
DeleteWales is not economically viable, we can't let unionists play their trick of comparing Wales to Scotland.
ReplyDeleteScotland is a real colony because it's exploited by England (Natural resources etc.) and Is perfectly capable to be and Independent State, whereas an independent Wales is impossible to manage
Don't be absurd, an independent Wales is perfectly viable.
DeleteYes, and any suggestion that it isn't is an insult to the entire nation.
DeletePlaid is an important friend to the SNP. The parties may be at different levels of success. Welssh people have pointed out that although Plaid has not broken through the way the SNP has, the succesd levels of the SNP often serves as a source of inspiration to activists in Plaid.
ReplyDelete