There's a limit to what I can tell you about the new Scottish poll from YouGov, who are always pretty quick to get up the data tables from their GB-wide polls, but as far as I can see haven't done so with this poll yet. Some unionist Twitter accounts are reporting the independence results with Don't Knows excluded as Yes 45% (-2), No 55% (+2), which makes no sense because the previous YouGov poll had Yes on 46% and No on 54%. So if the headline numbers are comfirmed, it's actually a statistically insignificant one point change, and very much within YouGov's normal range, who are now pretty much the most No-friendly active pollster. That would be bang in line with other polling firms reporting that Yes support is holding up normally in spite of the SNP's travails. However, I'm not even going to take it as read that the 45-55 split is accurate until we hear that from YouGov - this could turn out to be yet another bogus back-of-the-envelope amateur recalculation.
Labour propagandist Blair McDougall, who famously finished third in East Renfrewshire in 2017 after telling Tory voters they had to vote for him because it was a "two horse race" between himself and the SNP, is today saying that it's "still 45-55", as if polling has remained absolutely steady for the last nine years. Embarrassingly for him, it turns out that YouGov's fieldwork is actually less recent than the Redfield & Wilton poll showing the gap had closed to Yes 48%, No 52%. In any case, the vast majority of polls in 2023 have shown Yes higher than 45%, and of course no fewer than five of those polls have shown an outright Yes lead.
I'm also concerned to see the STV news website reporting the Yes vote in the poll as being the support for "separation", which is pejorative language that an Ofcom-regulated broadcaster should not be using. They would never dream of describing the No vote as being for "London rule" or "colonialism", so there's no reason for them to apply different rules for the Yes vote. It would be interesting to know whether they lifted the word direct from a press release, or whether the apparent political bias is in-house.
One thing that doesn't seem to be in dispute about the poll is that Humza Yousaf's net personal approval rating now stands at minus 27, which is a further slight worsening from the minus 25 recorded in April when his leadership was in its infancy. The number of Don't Knows has dropped significantly since then, which suggests that as more people have seen him and made up their minds about him, they've come to the same negative conclusion as the people who already had a view about him before he became leader. There's no point in anyone sticking their heads in the sand about this - the severe personal unpopularity of Yousaf represents a crisis for the SNP that must be resolved before the general election.
So far there's no sign of Holyrood and Westminster voting intention numbers, but I'd be very surprised if the poll didn't ask those questions. I wouldn't be totally startled to see the SNP slip into second place - at the very least it's going to be tight.
Kate Kate KATE
ReplyDeleteyup, and the old SNP policy for indie as Ash proposed
DeleteGo, Humza, Go!
ReplyDeleteSadly, denial is king, so nothing short of the “shock” of the guaranteed bloodbath at said WM election will shake him loose. And even then, I wouldn’t be astonished if he wipes out the pro Indy majority at Holyrood, too.
It’s all the nasty Tories fault the public doesn’t like him, don’t you know. Woof woof.
5 polls in 2023 showing Yes ahead, but what I find particularly encouraging is that one of those polls was conducted by Ipsos, widely regarded as Britain's "gold standard" polling company.
ReplyDeleteYup.
DeleteI agree that's encouraging. If the gold standard have Yes ahead, it doesn't really matter what Mickey Mouse firms like "Redfield and Wilton" say. Who the f*** are "Redfield and Wilton" anyway?
DeleteAnyone who thinks No is ahead is, frankly, a nutjob.
DeleteA very excellent and wonderful comment, considering the strong polling evidence from Ipsos that Yes are ahead. I feel tremendous empathy with your post. I vibe with it.
DeleteAgreed. England will see the majority of the people *MEAN BUSINESS*.
DeleteOnly non-gold-standard polls have put No ahead this year I’m delighted to say. Conditions are remarkably favourable for the independence movement and are highly likely to remain so.
DeleteHell yeah.
DeleteAs a unionist it pains me to say this, but I accept that you are being entirely realistic.
DeleteI see that there's murmurings that we'll be having a UK General Election in the early autumn. There was a long thread written by someone who studies these things that there were signs that the Tories had given their MPs various instructions about being seen in their constituency and not going awol the entire summer.
ReplyDeleteOther circumstantial evidence to back up the theory was that Rishi Sunak would be open to challenge come the end of October, that putting everything into purdah would mean that potentially damaging information from select committee reports would not come out until.after the election.
If this happens the SNP will get mauled and have very few MP. As much as I like my MP I've told him I'm not voting for the SNP until they get their governance issues sorted and leadership changed
That makes zero sense. Why would Sunak go early when he's miles behind? Unless there's a recovery, he'll wait until the last possible moment (or the last decent moment, it won't be January 2025).
DeleteAgreed. They’re so far behind, under the first past the post system the Tories would be down to double figures at best with the amount of MPs they’d have left. Ironically it’s not really Sunak’s fault but he’s going to be the fall guy for the bampots who preceded him.
DeleteLikewise, the FPTP system is going to see carnage for the SNP and huge gains for Labour in Scotland, way out of proportion for the percentage swing. The British voting system sucks.
December 2019 was an indecent time to hold an election, too, but since when did that bother a Tory? Anything to keep the Labour vote at home. Every little helps.
DeleteI don’t see Richy Sunak pulling the trigger any time before winter 2024/5 when his time runs out. He’ll do a Major and hold on in the hope something shows up.
Does that affect the timing of the next Holyrood general election? I forget how entangled they are now, calendar wise. They’ve certainly messed us around before. A quick one-two WM and Holyrood would absolutely devastate the SNP. As loathe as I am to vote for them now, I would hate to see this happen. It’ll set all of us back if it’s Armageddon.
WGD
ReplyDeleteThe Wee Ginger Dug is long deid so a new and more accurate name is long overdue. My suggestion is WGB - Whatabouterry Gone Bonkers.
It used to be the usual WGD numpties below the line that indulged in overwhelming whatabouterry any time anything bad about the SNP was revealed but we now have the big dug himself doing it in great detail. It says a lot about these people that they will accept any wrongdoing by the SNP/Sturgeon as long as they can find Britnats doing something bad on a larger scale.
Dr Jim says
ReplyDelete"Independence is for the people to take hold of that will then drive our politicians to the forefront to do the talky stuff because England will see the people mean business
The SNP try their best, it’s our fault that we don’t back them up"
48 or 56 or 64 isn't enough. Vote harder!
And they'll blame the voters when they lose the coming elections, going by all the polls. The chance was theirs to squander. But no, those who cannot fail can only 'be failed.'
ReplyDeleteGet Kate in. Just recovering a few percentage points could save a shedload of seats.
ReplyDeleteA bit OT but the National seems to be burying it’s head in the sand regarding the impending disaster - they’ve had huge front page spreads the last couple of days on a complete non story about land ownership - we need a voice in the media to represent the real issues and concerns of the independence movement and its down to blogs like yours James.
You're quite right, "separatism" and "colonialism" are the directly equivalent derogatory terms on opposite sides of the coin. Unionists won't want to hear that, but it's high time for them to be forced to confront the reality.
ReplyDelete