I increasingly feel that there's something not quite as it seems about the YouGov poll that unionists got so excited about a few days ago (even though it appeared to only show a statistically insignificant one-point drop in independence support once Don't Knows were excluded). Here's a list of things that are unusual about it -
1) There was quite a significant gap between fieldwork and publication, to such an extent that the fieldwork was less recent than a Redfield & Wilton independence poll (showing Yes support increasing to 48%) that had been published earlier.
2) The data tables have still not been published, nor does there appear to be a write-up of the results on the YouGov website. YouGov tend to be a lot quicker than that, especially with their own self-funded polls.
3) There was no sign of Westminster or Holyrood voting intentions results in the reporting of the poll, even though it's almost inconceivable those questions wouldn't have been asked in a poll which had independence numbers and approval ratings for both Humza Yousaf and Rishi Sunak.
4) Everything above points to YouGov having been commissioned by a client who made a deliberate choice to delay publication and then withhold (or further delay) certain results. And yet no client appears to be mentioned in the reporting of the poll - the Independent instead uses the peculiar formulation "a YouGov study, shared exclusively with the PA News Agency". But shared by who? The person or organisation behind this poll is apparently being a bit bashful. Why?
5) Potentially most significant of all is that the poll is still not listed on John Curtice's What Scotland Thinks site. OK, it's the middle of July, so maybe the person who normally does it is not around at the moment - but remember Professor Curtice heads the British Polling Council, so he usually knows pretty much everything straight away. Has this poll not made his way to him yet, or does he still have doubts about its provenance?
I'm not quite sure where all of this leads, but one possibility is that this was not strictly speaking a YouGov poll at all - sometimes YouGov are commissioned to collect the raw data, and another firm takes it from there and makes decisions about (for example) how to weight the numbers. If so, we may have been a bit misled, because the results shouldn't be regarded as comparable with previous YouGov polls.
Incidentally, there's a new GB-wide poll from YouGov today, which is interesting on a couple of points -
Liberal Democrats 11% (+2)
Reform UK 8% (-1)
Greens 7% (-)
SNP 4% (+1)
You omit Others at 3% on the Scottish sub-sample. ALBA must be a substantial if not whole explanation of the stubborn persistence of Others at 3 or 4%
ReplyDelete3% for Others in a subsample of 175 comes to just FIVE people. They could be anyone, Laurence Fox's Scottish fan club for all we know.
DeleteAnd James rarely mentions the percentage for Others, so nothing unusual in that.
An interesting hypothetical question: If Labour fails to win power at the next WM general election, how would Scots react?
ReplyDeleteI've always reckoned that it was Cameron's Tories getting into power in 2010 which fuelled the independence movement. The Tories have won every UK general election since, and independence has become the central issue in Scottish politics; perhaps more so than the establishment friendly SNP might like! Why did independence spike? Because we were ruled by Tories who we Scots rejected.
When Labour inevitably returns to power *eventually*, ending the Tory• government, what happens then? This we are yet to see. Personally, I consider Labour the existential threat to not only the SNP but the popular desire for Scottish Independence, outright. I also see Labour for what they are now: a Tory tribute act. But what about all Scots?
*Yes, yes, Starmer's a Tory. But actual Tory rule gets through to people in a way New Labour did not. Just look at how many Scots voted for Gordon Brown's Tory-lite New Labour in the pivotal election of 2010 I mentioned at the start.
The problem for Unionists, is that the UK-wide election results over the last century, since the first Labour administration, tell their own story; England is a naturally conservative country, which will elect a Tory government 2/3 of the time. Even taking the results since we last voted Tory in the 1950's, they have been in power 2/3 of the time and there is absolutely nothing to suggest this direction of travel will change. Labour are merely a caretaker party, who benefit when the Tories are tired and out of ideas, before regrouping and returning to the natural order.
DeleteLooking at it pragmatically, B-liar is the only Labour leader who has won a second consecutive term - and that was by being, at best, Tory-lite. The same would be true of Starmer (the epitome of a Tory in a red tie) and so any longevity on his part will be dependent on him appeasing Middle England, before the real deal returns to power.
For Scotland, the reality is stark and the choice is clear; stay in a "Union" where 2/3 of the time we get a government we never vote for (and let's be clear, we will never vote Tory again) or take charge of our own destiny.
Happy to say I agree. Let's be totally honest: support for independence is high, it's growing, and the momentum towards Scottish statehood is probably unstoppable by now. Just being realistic.
ReplyDeleteAs Winnie Ewing so memorably said: "Stop the world, Scotland wants to get on."
Hear hear.
DeleteSupport for independence is high, yes, but what's particularly important is that it never seems to fall below 50% in gold standard polls, ie. Ipsos polls. (Bar the occasional rogue poll.)
DeleteAs a unionist it pains me to say this, but you're absolutely right. The destiny of Britain is to be partitioned.
DeleteGutted.
So far this year support for independence has been above 50% in poll after poll after poll. Five in total. It's been a remarkable run.
DeleteThis Yougov poll Is good for Independence, SNP plus Greens plus Alba would be near 50% on the subsample
ReplyDeleteDon't need 50% in a general election, Westminsters own rules
ReplyDeleteAh the good old days when the SNP had policies people liked eg Council Tax freeze. Now we get vote losing council tax rises. Just how bad can the SNP under Sturgeon's gang and their bampot green friends get?
ReplyDeleteThe Greens were good for a short term solution ie. securing a majority, but their long term damage to the SNP brand (and therefore independence as a whole) will be felt for a long time to come. I wouldn’t mind so much if they were genuinely a “green” party but they’re just a bunch of extremist studenty politics a-holes with far too much influence.
DeleteThat's an interesting set of figures for UK polling.
ReplyDeleteLabour's drop might include a few people scunnered with Keir Starmer's dissing of Ed Milliband and suggestions that he "hates tree huggers", though the Greens don't appear to benefit.
IMV it remains very likely that the 7-8% for Reform will drop dramatically and boost the Tories by 4-6%. The RUK voters are driven more by cultural issues and we can see and hear all sorts of dog whistles coming out from the Tories every week.
Which leads me to this report:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1679443871296569351?s=20
I still believe that as I said several days ago that there's a lot of mood music that the Tories are going to try to have a GE before the end of October.
*** The SNP is completely unprepared for this ***
Labour realise an election is in the offing and have mobilised resources to fight it, hence Keir Starmer's champagne with Rupert Murdoch, his recent remarks referenced above and the reports today that virtually no appeals of member suspensions and expulsions are successful. Labour are trying to bomb-proof themselves from the RW press.
Whoever has been saying that there's going to be an election by the end of October is just wrong. Sunak may be many things but he's not an idiot, and from a Tory point of view an early election would be an idiotic thing to do. Prime Ministers don't call elections when only the opposition stand to benefit.
DeleteThat is a mature statement for a Scottish Nat si.
DeleteYou can be under investigation by the polis for fraudulent misuse of money ring fenced for Indyref2, arrested and interviewed for 7 hours and the SNP send you a bunch of flowers. Complain about the lack of progress/resolve by the SNP towards independence and you get kicked out the party. This is what Sturgeon's gang have done to the SNP. The SNP is no longer a party of independence.
ReplyDeleteThe members had a chance to possibly change this situation at the leadership election but instead they demonstrated they are a bunch of numpties/devolutionalists (apart from the roughly 10% who voted for Regan - the only candidate who actually wanted independence).
SNP members continually say the SNP is the only vehicle for independence. If it is then it reminds me of Del Boys 3 wheeler and they are a bunch of TITS - Trotters Independent Traders - trading on the lie they want independence.
Looks like you Nat sis are dead in the sea.
ReplyDeleteThe term is Nat *Cis*. Don't misgender us, GWC.
Delete