Landmark Panelbase poll shows SNP on course for defeat at the general election. This has to be the reality-check that causes denial within the SNP to end. They chose the wrong leader in March and that mistake has to be faced up to.

As expected, opinion polls since the unpopular Humza Yousaf became First Minister in highly controversial circumstances three months ago have shown voters punishing the SNP for their choice.  The party's lead over Labour has dwindled to almost nothing in many cases, and there have even been a few polls that have shown Labour either level or in the lead on the Holyrood list ballot.  And yet the denial from Team Humza has been quite simply astounding - anonymous briefings to the press have suggested that the poll results are somehow even heartening in the circumstances.  That may simply be because, until now, no conventional poll has shown the SNP quite losing their lead on the Westminster ballot or on the Holyrood constituency ballot, which are regarded (wrongly) as more important votes than the Holyrood list.  If so, tonight will bring a shuddering halt to the complacency, and that may be no bad thing.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Panelbase / Sunday Times, 12th-15th June 2023):

Labour 34% (+3)

SNP 34% (-5)

Conservatives 18% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 7% (+2)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): Labour 26 (+25), SNP 21 (-27), Conservatives 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

Incidentally, the percentage changes above are from a Panelbase poll conducted just after Yousaf became leader in March, so there's no real doubt that the SNP have lost substantial support on his watch.  I know some will argue that any SNP leader would be facing exactly the same problems he is right now, but that doesn't wash for two clear reasons.  Firstly, although the current SNP leadership can't control the fact that Yousaf's predecessor has just been arrested, what they absolutely can control is their own reaction to that news, and in no sane world would that involve sending Nicola Sturgeon flowers or saying that disloyalty to her is incompatible with SNP membership.  Those actions send an unmistakeable message to the public that the current leadership is just a continuation of the Sturgeon leadership in all but name.

And secondly, it's not as if there's isn't a clear alternative to Yousaf who we have good reason to believe the public would be responding to a lot better.  Just like the Savanta poll the other day, Panelbase are showing that Yousaf's narrowly defeated leadership opponent Kate Forbes, who of course unlike him would not be a continuity leader in any shape or form, is now the most popular senior politician in Scotland.

Net approval ratings:

Kate Forbes (SNP): +3

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -2

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -12

Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): -18

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -34

There is the now-customary silver lining in this poll - on the independence question, Yes support is holding up impressively, which suggests that the constitutional debate has now matured to the point where people can easily separate out their views on independence from their dislike of the SNP leadership of the day.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (-1)

No 53% (+1)

With SNP support now 13 points lower than independence support, it looks as if literally the only way the SNP could recover their position without changing leader is by restoring the Sturgeon plan of a de facto referendum, thus giving a reason for Yes-supporting switchers to Labour to return to the SNP fold.

The Holyrood numbers in the poll are almost as bad for the SNP as the Westminster numbers, but not quite -

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot: 

SNP 36% (-1)

Labour 32% (+2)

Conservatives 13% (-4)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)

Greens 7% (+2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 30% (-1)

Labour 28% (+1)

Conservatives 17% (-3)

Greens 12% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) 

Alba 4% (-1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 47 (-17), Labour 37 (+15), Conservatives 23 (-8), Greens 14 (+6), Liberal Democrats 8 (+4)

That would leave the SNP with exactly the same number of seats that they won under Alex Salmond in 2007 when they pipped Labour by just one seat to take power for the first time.  As in 2007, there would be no pro-independence majority - the unionist parties in combination would have 68, while the SNP and Greens between them would have only 61.

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