Survation poll, 29th March - 3rd April 2023:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (+2)
No 53% (-2)
Unlike every other poll we've seen since Humza Yousaf was narrowly elected as SNP leader in highly controversial circumstances, there's no decrease in the SNP vote (or no *further* decrease, I should say, because a decline had already happened in the final weeks of Nicola Sturgeon's leadership). Indeed, there's even a small increase - albeit a statistically insignificant one - in the SNP's Holyrood support. However, it must be borne in mind that the fieldwork for the poll took place before the arrest of Peter Murrell and the raid on his and Ms Sturgeon's shared home, so even if Survation's numbers are more accurate than those of other firms (a big if), there's a danger that the reprieve for the SNP may be only temporary.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 40% (-)
Labour 32% (-)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 1% (-)
Reform UK 1% (n/a)
Alba 1% (-)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 42% (+1)
Labour 30% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (-)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 35% (+2)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Greens 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-)
(Note: The percentage changes above are measured from the most recent published Survation numbers in March. Strangely, Survation's own Twitter account is measuring the percentage changes from an earlier poll in February and is therefore showing a significant drop in the SNP's vote. This may imply that they do not regard the March poll as being technically a "Survation poll" due to the involvement of the Diffley Partnership. Whether this is just a 'branding' difference or something more substantive isn't clear. I cannot offer an explanation for the bizarre inconsistency of Alba apparently being offered as an option to respondents on the Westminster question but not on the Holyrood list question.)
Seats projections (with changes from most recent election):
UK Parliament: SNP 36 (-12), Labour 14 (+13), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1), Conservatives 4 (-2)
Scottish Parliament: SNP 59 (-5), Labour 31 (+9), Conservatives 23 (-8), Greens 10 (+2), Liberal Democrats 6 (+2)
By the way, our anonymous troll informed me that I "must" have seen this poll because Professor John Robertson's blog (which I have not read for several years) had covered it earlier today. Having now checked Robertson's piece, this helpfully gives me the opportunity to point out that it is factually inaccurate. Robertson claims that the SNP lead over Labour has "surged to 12%". As you can see for yourself from the numbers above, the SNP have remained eight points ahead of Labour on Westminster voting intentions and are twelve points clear on the Holyrood constituency ballot, but that lead is absolutely static from the twelve point lead in the previous poll. The only ballot on which the SNP lead has increased is the Holyrood list ballot, but the new lead there is ten points, not twelve. So whichever way you cut it, Robertson is wrong and there is no "surge to a 12% lead". I appreciate he's an out-and-out propagandist, but propaganda tends to be more effective when it stays just about within the bounds of truthfulness.
There are times James when I don't understand how you keep your patience. Some of these people are such transparent fools.
ReplyDeleteUncharted waters. Essential viewing though.
ReplyDeleteYet, the SNP offers no reason to vote SNP other than 'we're not as crap as Westminster'... must do better
ReplyDeleteIf Forbes was leader with these starting numbers, she could do a good job
ReplyDeleteEncouraging numbers James, but as you say, the next polls, with fieldwork conducted after CSI Uddingston’s swoop, will likely give a truer picture.
ReplyDeleteMeantime we can but hope that Humza’s got plenty of bold policies to announce to deflect attention from the clusterbourach. Mind you, since it’s less a government of all the talents and more a cabinet of curiosities, I’m not holding my breath.
Don’t listen to the hater James. Bad ðŸ˜
ReplyDelete'He's an out-and-out propagandist?'
ReplyDeleteHow dare you sah! I was using the BBC Scotland editorial standards! Fight fire with fire?
Psephological pedantry will get us nowhere just like joining in with the trans pile-on, alongside those other insecure 'guys' at Wings
"Psephological pedantry"
DeleteScot Goes Pop was the go to place for many of us since the beginning of the campaign for the first Indy Ref, and he has justly earned the title of "Scotland's other psephologist".
As such, to keep his reputation, he will indeed engage in "Psephological correctness".
I've had time to check. My claim was for a 12 point lead in the Holyrood constituency vote. Using the Survation table weighted by likelihood to vote with undecided and refused removed, for the constituency vote, we see SNP 41.90% and Labour 29.65%, an 11.95% lead.
ReplyDeleteI know you can't strictly claim a surge across different pollsters but we're not in academia here. The MSM fight dirty. We must respond.
Other than the fact that I rounded them to the nearest whole number, those are the exact numbers I used in the blogpost, so I'm not really sure what you're disputing here. There's a 12 point lead in one of the three ballots, but no "surge to a 12% lead", which is what your original post claimed. There was a 12-point lead on the constituency ballot in the previous Survation poll, and there's still a 12 point lead in this new poll, so it's a static
Deletepicture not a surge.
I suppose I should just be honoured you're still speaking to a filthy 'transphobe' like me, given some of the rather extreme things you said two or three years ago.
" We must respond" - yes by sticking to the truth. Britnats lie all the time - independence is not advanced by telling lies to support a position. Leave the lies to the Britnats.
DeleteI see no benefit to the cause of Scottish independence by passing legislation (GRR) that the vast majority of people in Scotland do not support and was always going to be stopped by Westminster anyway.
... and right on cue The Official Easter Bunny Arbitration Service arrives.....(face palm).
Deleteand right on cue comes a snidey one liner from an anonymite. I'll give you 8 out of 10 for originality, 7 out of 10 for imagination and 2 out of 10 for relevant content. Overall not bad for a WGD numpty.
DeleteJohn Robertson: To some extent I was giving you the benefit of the doubt by publishing your comments on this thread, if only because you were showing some inkling of self-awareness that you were stepping beyond the bounds of truthfulness and justifying it to yourself on propaganda grounds. But since then, you have started trawling through ancient posts on this blog and attempted to leave infantile comments, and you have also attempted to leave further comments on this thread of the "join me in lying about poll results - it's fun" and "I didn't call you a transphobe but you're a transphobe" variety.
DeleteAt this point, you leave me with little option but to invite you to take a hike, and to take your identity politics extremism and your deeply peculiar attitude to the truth elsewhere. I won't call you a misogynist because I think that word is as absurdly overused as "transphobe". But you and I both know that thousands of people would accuse you of that, and perhaps that's something you should now be reflecting on.
Sounds like James has the Prof by the short and curlies. Great to see that faux "independentista" being called out for his fibs, yesterday's incident was far from being a one-off.
DeleteThe Wacos on WGD are truly reaching new hights of stupidity and delusion. Skier and Dr Jim want the police to dish out the same treatment to Campbell completely ignoring the fact that they have already raided him in the past. The big dug churns out many articles for The National ( despite being terribly tired ) but now just throws out the odd scabby scrap to his doggers on WGD. Without the big dug telling them what to believe they are like mad dogs barking away at each other and fighting over the ever diminishing reputation of their great leader.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile Yousaf tries hard to distance himself from Sturgeon's gang by slagging off the Murrells but hey everybody knows exactly who you are Yousaf - Sturgeon's boy from day 1. Yousaf says he will not be making his wife Chief Exec of the SNP. Aye but you got her a councillor job. Who but a numpty would believe he knew nothing about what was going on in the SNP.
Angus Robertson and his charming wife waiting in the wings for all the shit to stop flying and hoping to come to the rescue of the SNP further down the line.
I always thought AR was a shoe in for the top job. Now we know why he kept huspowder dry.
DeleteMore proof, mind you, that the SNP top brass were aware of what was happening.
I think you are exactly right with your comment on the Robertson duo. Yousaf was set up to win and thus take the flak that has been, and will continue to fly about. Then the Robertsons will take over and the SNP will be back in the hands of the really bad guys. Sturgeon and Murrell mark 2. I so fervently hope this does not come to pass.
DeleteOh dear ... now you've done it!
ReplyDeleteProf. John is NOT happy!
The SNP's auditors have resigned.
ReplyDelete