Let's not mince words - this is an unmitigated disaster. The SNP have replaced a popular leader with a deeply unpopular leader. They have done so needlessly, because there was a popular alternative on offer. And given that Yousaf has won so narrowly, there's going to be little doubt that the only reason he prevailed is because the process was so tightly 'managed' by the Sturgeon faction, with favours being called in left, right and centre. Rightly or wrongly, there will probably even be allegations of outright ballot rigging. He will command very little authority. The Sturgeon team have let their party and their country down appallingly badly by not allowing this process to run its course naturally, which would clearly have resulted in a win for Forbes and a brighter future for our cause.
I suppose questions also have to be asked of those of us who defected to Alba in 2021, because the current Alba membership is (I think) just about big enough that it could have swung the balance for Forbes if we were all still SNP members - although I suspect if Alba didn't exist a lot of those people would now belong to no party at all, so perhaps it wouldn't have made any difference.
For the second time in six months, I have to say I find myself at a political crossroads, and I'm sure others feel the same. There is no way forward while Humza is SNP leader. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded - independence has no chance of happening until he is deposed, whether that be in six months or ten years. However, I don't want to fall into the Stuart Campbell trap of talking down the SNP and talking down independence on this blog on a daily basis in the hope of hastening Yousaf's removal, because that could make matters worse. There has to be something left of the SNP for Yousaf's successor to inherit. The least worst outcome would be for Yousaf to see the writing on the wall from opinion poll results and then resign to prevent an election defeat, rather than in reaction to an election defeat, but knowing what we know about the stubbornness of the man and those who have put him where he is, that seems unlikely. He could very easily take us all down with him.
From a personal point of view, how do I contribute in this impossible situation? I can't in all good conscience cheerlead for an SNP that I now realise needs to fail to at least some extent before it can succeed by being shocked into ditching Yousaf. But neither can I in good conscience do a Campbell by spending every waking moment trying to turn a heavy SNP defeat in 2024 into a self-fulfilling prophecy, because that could kill off independence forever. So perhaps I need to step away from the blog, or turn the blog's focus completely away from polling and election analysis.
I know some will redouble their efforts to build up the Alba Party as a genuinely pro-independence alternative to the devolutionist SNP, but as you know, I feel really strongly that Alba needs to become more mainstream and ditch some of the anger and the wilder impulses if it's ever to become electorally successful. I would be quite happy to fight for change within Alba for however long that takes - but, to be perfectly candid, I recently put myself forward for Alba internal elections and was never even informed of the results, even though I sent a follow-up email to try to find out. That genuinely astonished me given how we've been rightly castigating the SNP for a lack of transparency and due process in their own internal elections. I don't mind banging my head against a brick wall in Alba for years to come as long as the process is open and fair, but if that's not the case...? Are we a democratic party or are we, like the SNP under Sturgeon and Yousaf, a 'managed' party? Where is the home for the scunnered middle now? Is there one?
I have a great deal to mull over, as I'm sure every true independence supporter in the land does. I'll get back to you if and when I reach any conclusions, although in the meantime there'll be the loose ends of some remaining opinion poll results.
It is more depressing even than 2014. We have nowhere to go! We will not win the next election with an obvious loser. Well done the establishment.
ReplyDeletewhat must happen now is the revitalisation of the non-aligned auob / yes movement. We must be a pain in tge establishment's side . All non-violent actions should be considered..
ReplyDeleteGet aff yer knees!
"the non-aligned AUOB"....lol.....give me a break! Every anti-SNP nutjob (Sean Clerkin and his Scottish Resistance pals for starters) congregate under that banner. It should be renamed "All Under One Anti-SNP Banner".
DeleteThe suggestion to get off your knees with all under one banner sounds good to me. - worst case it cultivates a bit of positive banter and team (re)building among like minded people. If it becomes a bona fide resistance to nuSNP troughing, so much the better.
DeleteWe are all feeling a bit down I think Humza as leader is a disaster for the SNP and therefore Independence.We have setback s before but have always recovered and we will come bouncing back stronger than ever .
ReplyDeleteThe SNP will get stuffed at next year's GE and Humza's position as leader will be untenable.
Kate will be seen as the leader in waiting by many given her strong showing
I feel much the same. I'm holding off on any action for at least a couple of months in the hope that a Humza leadership will see more concrete action on independence - and reform of HQ - than I currently expect.
ReplyDelete30% DNV, 27% of voters only gave first preferences.
ReplyDeleteWinning margin 2,142; Regan votes transferred to Yousaf 1,696.
We're f'kd by the 'couldn't care less' and the idiots.
72000 ballot papers issued 52000 returned-what happened to the other 20000. Surely if you pay your sub to SNP you would be most likely to vote!
ReplyDeleteWhit- over 20,000 members didn't vote over a two week period. The whole election was a disgrace and typical of anything managed by Sturgeon. Britnats are overjoyed - Yousaf is in charge.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP has declared itself a party of devolution.
Sturgeon continuity wins. You cannae believe anything that comes out from the SNP.
Oswald will not be getting my vote at the next UK GE. The only positive of there not being a de facto referendum at the next UK GE is that I won't be forced to vote for Oswald now.
We will now be treated to the spectacle of a couple of Hutchie pals as leaders of the SNP and Labour both prattling on about poverty and inequality and who will do the most to eradicate it. Spoiler alert - both will do little. In effect two labour parties in Holyrood - one registered in Scotland and the other in London.
The Britnat media was its usual crap. Sky could only find an expert from Belfast. Nobody in Scotland could do the job - pathetic.
The BBC had the cheek to have Isabel Hardman from the Spectator. She just loved the result. As there were no polls to analyse Curtice was a waste of space. Finally, the coward Lesley Riddoch moved from pre verdict saying things need to change in the SNP then reverted back to wheest for indy after the result.
In summary, numpties may still think the SNP is a party of Scottish independence but it ain't. It's a party of devolution troughers.
I feel similar. I saw a statement from Alba on twitter about a trans issue in NZ and just thought, this is so wrong headed.
ReplyDeleteIt's almost like Salmond, as leader, says all the right things and the activists (some) do everything to undermine.
i'm sorry I want to give the SNP a bloody nose and vote Alba but the activists just make it impossible to support.
unfortunately i don't know the answer. Maybe Yousaf will surprise us.
The only consolation is that this at least clears the decks. As Humza's SNP bins the commitment to deliver the defacto referendum and simply goes back to asking Westminster again (or waiting until some unspecified "sustained majority" in the polls before asking again), while the party goes on to decline and the people of Scotland resign themselves to our grim Brexity future, then at least there can be no doubt that the SNP is no longer a vehicle for independence. (I was already in agreement with Robin McAlpine's recent article on this - but I think Humza's election finally seals it.) Feels like we've reached the end of that road and the only way forward is to find another one. But of course the difference is that Humza will have established that even if the people of Scotland vote to have a referendum (as we did), they do not have a right for it to be delivered without Westminster approval (he insists he won't do it otherwise). That's the new normal SNP voters have endorsed.
ReplyDeleteI for one cannot vote SNP while he is in charge. I believe the election was rigged in his favour. My only consolation being. I don't think he will last as far as September.
ReplyDelete70000 ballot papers issued 50000 returned? Very odd! Where did the other 20000 go? 30% did not vote why?
ReplyDeleteWhatever you do look after yourself, take a couple of weeks off. As for me, I’m heartbroken for our country and her people
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling as bereft as I did in 2014, and again when I watched the NEC crash and burn. This election was not a fair contest and was managed by Sturgeon from before her resignation so that one candidate could put their affairs in order and get a head start on organising.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as a life long believer in Independence and until recent years, the SNP (I am 75 and accustomed to being laughed at for supporting Independence) I will lick my wounds for a little while and then start again. 6th May in Glasgow might just be my re-starting point.
That tosser Yousaf actually said it doesn't matter what your religion is - patently a Free Church of Scotland member is a problem to a lot of SNP members. How on earth did so many members who voted Regan give their second vote to Yousaf?
ReplyDeleteI won’t be voting SNP again anytime soon after this, that’s for certain.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP will be progressive - they will have progressive amnesia about Independence. Make no mistake Yousaf is a devolutionist whose wet dream is to win a court case against Westminster, led by the nose by the Greens.
ReplyDeleteWe are totally SNAFUed.
Nick Chuggins
A positive, at least the Yes movement won't have to worry about uncoupling itself from Yousaf's disastrous tenure and being tarred with the same brush as he has no real interest in indy.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP and the Yes movement are now two completely separate entities.
52% of the vote is good enough to win an EU ref and an SNP leadership contest but not good enough to win Scottish independence according to Forbes and Yousaf. Democracy in Scotland - it disnae exist and never has.
ReplyDeleteIt used to be the Tories/Labour/Libdems who insisted on moving the bar upwards for a yes vote on independence now it is the SNP.
The SNP is NO LONGER the party of Scottish independence. No more evidence is required.
"The SNP is NO LONGER the party of Scottish independence. No more evidence is required."
Delete100% agree.
The previous leader do anything about it.
The new leader doesn't want to do anything about it.
The MPs don't want to do anything about it.
The MSPs don't want to do anything about it.
And now even the members have proved their not that fussed about it by picking the candidate by far the most wishy-washy about it.
The SNP is no longer the party of Scottish independence.
I'm as despondent as you. I agree that if a party is serious then it has to be transparent in its processes.
ReplyDeleteRight now Alba doesn't look at all credible and if it is to have any future at all as a serious contender to the SNP's vote then it has to sort that out ASAP.
It is now up to the ordinary grass roots SNP activists to take back control of the party and shape the direction of travel. Nicola was permitted a great deal of 'slack' by ordinary party members and although the SNP has done a great deal of 'election' campaigming during the years after she inherited the leadership in 2014, it also has to be said that very little 'independence' campaigning has taken place. The decision to abolish the SNP National Council at the 2018 Conference gave the SNP leadership carte blanche to proceed along the current path unchallenged by the ordinary members. Although the 2021 Conference voted to restore the National Council it has been a huge disappointment to many of us that the National Council has not met since that decision was taken. If Humza wants to bring on board a huge number of members who didn't vote for him, one of the first things he needs to do is reconvene the National Council. If he doesn't do so quickly then the ordinary party memberwill need to force the issue with him.
ReplyDeleteI think that these events show the conflict between electing someone to be leader of a political party, and electing someone to be First Minister. They're different jobs. Members of the SNP should be free to vote for whom they like as SNP leader, without having to worry about how that person would go down (or up) with the rest of the country.. I the same way, the Tories could have had their Truss without lumbering the rest of us with her.
ReplyDeleteThe only winners here are the rancid Scottish Greens. Their man got in and they can continue to push their bampot policies at the expense of the SNP and independence. The current setup suits them just fine - they have control and influence way beyond what their support should entitle them to - classic tail wagging the dog.
ReplyDeleteIf one of the other candidates who didn’t share their “progressive” values had won, the Greens would have had to go it alone and might (gasp) actually have had to focus on green issues.
Hard to believe this but WGD numpty Golfnut actually thinks Yousaf will now reschedule the SNP special conference for a de facto referendum. Unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteI think this is our Milliband moment. Faced with a choice of 2 candidates one competent pragmatic and electable. The other an inexperienced idealog with no chance of electoral success. The activists chose the wrong Milliband and we all know how that story ended.
ReplyDeleteInterested in what proof you have to support the following (not looking for an argument but to be more informed): “The Sturgeon team have let their party and their country down appallingly badly by not allowing this process to run its course naturally, which would clearly have resulted in a win for Forbes and a brighter future for our cause.”
ReplyDeleteWell, the word "proof" does feel like you're looking for an argument, but there are all sorts of ways the dice were loaded in Humza's favour. The shortness of the campaign period was designed to make it harder for Forbes and Regan and possibly even to dissuade Forbes from standing. Liz Lloyd apparently directly tried to stop her standing. The coordinated endorsement for Yousaf from senior figures, many of whom would not have endorsed Yousaf spontaneously. The bussing in of Yousaf supporters to multiple hustings and the selection of planted questions. The failure to reveal membership numbers until most votes had been cast, and the subsequent refusal to allow voters to change their recorded votes in the light of the revelations. The cut-off for eligible members being the day that Sturgeon resigned, therefore not allowing lapsed members to rejoin and vote. Etc, etc, etc.
DeleteThanks for the response, James. I’m not a member of the SNP although I have voted for them whenever I’ve been living in Scotland (currently exiled). Must admit that I was underwhelmed by the candidates in general and would lay the blame for that in exactly the establishment you criticise. I believe that Forbes and Yousaf are both problematic from a voter perspective. Either one alienates one side or the other. In your polling (or anyone’s for that matter), who was more popular amongst younger voters?
DeleteI'd say that's the wrong question, to be honest. Where Yes is deficient is in its appeal to *older* voters - and it was with older age groups that Forbes' popularity predominantly lay.
DeleteReason I asked that way was the risk of losing current voters rather than the possibility of gaining any but I do agree that the independence cause needs to attract older voters.
DeleteIf Alba or another Independence Party is not standing in my area then I will for the first time ever have to spoil the ballot by writing INDEPENDENCE FOR SCOTLAND in bold across the paper.
ReplyDeleteSNP no more - worse than a Britnat party - a phoney Independence Party. This is all down to the numpties who continued to support Sturgeon even when there was a mountain of evidence that she was a phoney. She even told the numpties she was British. She even said the BBC was a key and valued institution but the numpties stuck their head in the sand and ignored everything. Not to forget liars and charlatans like Kavanagh who troughed away by spinning their lies that Sturgeon would deliver a referendum.
Now some WGD numpties like DrJim, Old Pete are saying they are chuckin their membership of the SNP just as numpty Elidh has just joined. Skier of course will be having a quite chuckle. Both he and his French wife voted for Yousaf - well so he says - as he is a proven liar who knows.
The grim mood is tangible over on WGD, with several people saying they'll leave the party. Even Paul Kavanagh sounds pretty downbeat in his blogpost. It's near impossible to find anyone who isn't wearing a suit in their Twitter picture who sounds happy about this.
ReplyDeleteKavanagh's post result column in McPravda is true to form. 15 paragraphs about the Tories and a brief suggestion that Yousaf should maintain a progressive alliance with the Greens (which in practice means signing up to all sorts of batshit crazy social engineering schemes while Scotland's roads become unusable and the dream of independence withers on the vine).
DeleteI have so many feelings about this result. I voted for Kate and it's frustrating that it came so close in the end. I had actually let my membership lapse in December only to rejoin the day Nicola resigned, so I could give the SNP one last chance to change direction back to being a broad church. Sadly the chance has not been taken.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand I actually feel heartened by the result. It shows that nearly half the members who voted don't just do what the party machine tells them to. Maybe the party as a whole isn't quite as illiberal and obsessed with identity politics as the leadership think it is. The SNP maybe hasn't totally lost its way in my eyes.
Like you James, I am now at a political crossroads. I don't fancy Alba for the reasons you mentioned. I have been telling myself I would leave the SNP after eleven nearly continuous years of membership if Humza won. I'm also not sure if I can abide the behaviour of the SNP machine during the contest. In saying that, with no where else to go the close result makes me wonder if I should "stay and fight" so I can have my say when the next leadership election to come along.
I'm with you....Kate got my vote also.
DeleteThe returning Officer....thats who signs off all my e-mails from Jackson's Close?...Really?....Fek me I'm retired and could at least keep my hair out my face and sound a damnsight more coherent.
I have attended every Glasgow/Edinburgh march and a couple of other smaller ones and had planned to go to the one in Glasgow on May 6th but I won't be going now unless AUOB bans the SNP. I ain't marching alongside SNP numpties and I say that as someone who normally meets up with SNP and non SNP friends. The SNP are a disgrace. The election was a disgrace. The SNP are not for independence and I would just end up booing any SNP representatives that turned up. A wee clue for the numpties about Sturgeon is that she turned up multiple timess for gay pride marches but not once for independence marches after she became FM.
ReplyDeleteThe anonymous dickhead at the top who said it should be renamed AUO anti SNP Banner is spot on as far as I am concerned. The sooner the better. Sturgeon the betrayer has forged the SNP in her own image - phoney Traitors.
James can you explain why the revelation there were far fewer members than had been claimed b the SNP would have caused members to change their votes if allowed? I am not challenging you, I genuinely don’t understand the argument. Do you mean that if members had grasped there was fibbing going on in the higher reaches of the SNP this would have caused them to turn against the establishment candidate? I am unclear.
ReplyDeleteYes, of course that's what I mean. Kate Forbes and Ash Regan both campaigned on that very point in the latter stages, so clearly thought it was a highly promising line of attack, but by that point thousands of members had already voted for Humza and couldn't edit their vote.
Deleteshut up IfS....theyre not traitors and well you know it....you just dont concur with their views.Be nice.
ReplyDeleteWell anonymous I was giving them the benefit of the doubt that at some point in their life they did want Scottish independence but if that isn't the case then they are straight up Britnats and no different from Dross of Sarwar. Take your pick.
DeleteBetter pricks than you have tried to shut me up. Even some of the WGD numpties are starting to see the SNP for what it has become - Unionists, Britnats, devolutionalists, never ending gradualists - again take your pick you prick.
I suppose an outside chance of the SNP making itself useful to the cause of independence still exists if a movement for the restoration of internal party democracy is established on a tough, hard nosed basis. The starting point has been suggested above - getting National Council re-established and then push forward from there.
ReplyDeleteThere will be howls of 'traitors' from suits and their boot kissers as the media will immediately run strings of headlines about 'chaos' and 'collapse' bu the alternative is worse; having to pick up the bits to form a replacement party. A fight to get the mouth foaming anger under control in Alba would have to run in parralel.
Lamentable ! This is what Sturgeon, Murrell and their merry band of troughers and political sectarians have brought us to.
Jenny Gilruth tipped for promotion. Wot, cos she did such a splendid job with Thesis’s ferries (ok, so she inherited that mess)?
ReplyDeleteYousaf was identified as a “future opinion leader” by the US State Dept in his second year as a humble parliamentary aide for his uncle and inducted into their International Visitors Leadership Programme.
Gilruth was in Washington as an IVLP alumni 35 working days after being sworn in as a rookie MSP.
Kezia Dugdale, Patrick Grady and Angela Crawley were on the same IVLP trip as Gilruth. Grady and Crawley didn’t record the trip on their HoC register of interests.
I agree with James, the next Westminster election will likely be carnage for the SNP. Wedded to the loopy Greens, Stephen Flynn will likely be toast. If (big if) Crawley can retain her seat will she assume leadership of the vestigial SNP contingent?
According to Neale Hanvey, SNP HQ has already chosen a candidate to stand against him without reference to the constituency association. Will this be Stephen “CIA” Gethins?
Wee Pat Harvie was inducted into the IVLP as early as 2010. Now why would the State Department recruit from the “radical, anti-capitalist” Greens?
All-in-all, those touched by the magic hand of the State Dept inexplicably flourish.
Of the seven elected Scottish politicians “recruited” by the State Dept for their IVLP only Yousaf is heterosexual. That ain’t coincidence, that’s targeting.
For just over 2 years and at every rally (and more) Sovereign Scots have been signing their individual "Declaration of a Sovereign Scot", which in turn have been lodged with the Secretary General of the UN in New York. If you have any interest in how it addresses "International" laws on self determination and separates that from "domestic" laws such as the UK Supreme Court, and its current outreach to individual Members of the UN - this is the link to use:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100070340354557
WGD numpties Tam the Bam and the liar Skier saying I called Skier a snake. Now, now, play fair I have never called Skier a snake. A liar - Yes. A Sturgeon propagandist - Yes. A snake no way - he is lower than a snake - a creep who likes hanging about public toilets.
ReplyDeleteI've had a sleep on it, I will still stay a member of the SNP for one reason basically because if all those who left for Alba had stayed in we would not have Humza as leader.
ReplyDeleteI however won't go out campaigning no canvassing no leafletting no doing my bit on polling day.I will have an issue who to vote for come the election.Might just not vote at all.The Greens are just too loopy for me and I just think Alba are too aggressive in their dislike for the SNP .That's not a winner with the electorate.
Sort of feel I have wasted half my adult life canvassing leafletting in rain sunshine or snow for Independence.
I get the party needed to skip a generation but Humza ain't a change he is just a poor second rate Nicola.
I voted Kate and thought she was a fresh face a real break from the past.
My only hope is that after a dribbling in the Westminster election the party will come to its senses.Thsts why I am remaining a member so I can vote in the next leadership election .
Hey Rocksie67 what is there to like about the SNP then. I know what there is to dislike about Sturgeon's gang.
Delete“ Alison Thewliss MP has joined the board of the John Smith Centre” as of yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThewliss was intended to be the lavender Ceaușescus continuity candidate when Blackflab resigned.
“ Catherine Smith KC, Board Chair, said: “We are delighted Alison has agreed to join the board of the John Smith Centre … “
Catherine Smith is an ex-employee of the US State Department although she tries to disguise this in her site bio..
The strap line for the John Smith Centre for Public Service is; “Promoting Trust in Politics & Public Service”. Odd then that their accounts as a charity are are never published on the website of the Office of the Scottish Charity Regulator and they hide behind a legal loophole, namely that they operate under the “umbrella” of University of Glasgow.
The sources of their funding remains an impenetrable mystery.
A cynic may suggest that the JSCfPS is the Glasgow outstation of MI5.
Just wanted to say that your blog is usually the closest to how I feel in the scunnered middle, and I agree with tour analysis of the SNP and Alba here. Most importantly, I'd miss this blog if you stopped!
ReplyDeleteDr Jim has commented on WGD that the door (to independence) is now ajar and just needs a new direction. My question in reply was why did Ms Sturgeon not do/try something else?
ReplyDeleteI'd be sorry if you wound down your activity, you are a voice of reason in the independence movement.
ReplyDeleteAlthough, as you say, it could hardly be more dispiriting at the moment.
Thanks Nicola for turning everything to dust.
So that's Kate Forbes out of the Government.
ReplyDeleteTalk about the Machine doubling down.