Bear in mind that every poll has a margin of error, and in this case it'll be a bit larger than normal because there were only 500 respondents. If Yousaf's first preference lead is being overestimated, the road to victory for Forbes on the second count could be extremely straightforward and easy. If it's being underestimated, Forbes' chances may be a fair bit slimmer.
The tables confirm some of the previously untested assumptions of this campaign, because it turns out there's an absolutely enormous disparity between the different age groups. The reason Forbes is in with a real shout is precisely because, as speculated in The National a few days ago, older SNP members are backing her and they happen to represent the bulk of the membership. Among 55-64 year old members, Forbes has a 15 percentage point lead over Yousaf (after Don't Knows are excluded), and among over-65s, she has a 10-point advantage. So the accuracy of this poll will depend on whether Savanta have got the target weightings for each age group correct. They look in the right ball-park to me, but the reality is that I'm not sure accurate information about the SNP's current membership is even publicly available.
UPDATE: Also worthy of note is that Yousaf has a significant first preference lead among female party members, but among male party members Forbes is essentially tied. That seems counterintuitive, but this would be far from the first election in the world where the gender gap was 'the wrong way round', so to speak.
11% of the original sample in this poll, some 55 people (bigger than the gap between Yousaf and Forbes on first preferences) told Savanta that they "prefer not to answer" the question. That's very different from saying "don't know" because it may imply they do know who they will vote for but want to keep it a secret. Could that be the "Shy Kate" factor that was speculated about on the previous thread? SNP members who are too embarrassed to admit they will vote for Forbes in case they're called "far-right bigoted transphobes who are probably married to BEARDED TORIES"? Best not to jump to that conclusion, actually, because whenever there is a "prefer not to answer" option in a poll, some respondents will select it. But it's an interesting thought, and if there are a significant number of Shy Kate voters out there, Yousaf could be in a bit of a hole.
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Kate Forbes also needs to ensure that her second preferences go to Ash Regan.
ReplyDeleteAsh Regan's second preference votes are the only ones of any importance. Battle is between Kate and Humza, the Ash supporters are probably going to be the "King makers" which should make it interesting.
ReplyDeleteTalk about sucking up to your boss example 1.
ReplyDeleteYousaf says he wants Sturgeon to be an international ambassador for Scotland. So she gets to travel the world taking selfies spending the scarce public funds. I'm sure these WGD numpties were always saying that she had got all these international contacts all ready and waiting for when she achieved Scottish independence to recognise Scotland as being independent. Oh well just another thing the delusional numpties were talking pish about. It seems she really was just taking selfies on her trips.
The funny thing is, I've never seen Nicola taking a selfie. I mean she's been in plenty, but it's always others that ask her for one, not her taking one with someone else...
DeleteMike I recommend a trip to Specsavers or pay more attention. .
DeleteIt would be a wee bit ironic if the winner won by 50% +1
ReplyDeleteThe age differential raises the tantalising prospect of a wheen of young, Identity politics activists leaving the party in an adolescent strop if anyone but Yousaf wins.
ReplyDeleteDinna let the door skelp yer erse oan the way oot.
This WGD numpty Dr Jim on the Telegraph poll:- " The Telegraph says they conducted their wee poll of SNP members where did they get the information from and can they verify they actually were members?
ReplyDeleteThe SNP didn't release members details, they wouldn't be allowed to
A tad stinky by the Telegraph? It's not as if they're neutral."
Unbelievable crap from another WGD numpty. Jimbo seems to think the Telegraph carried out the polling themselves. I have noticed that numpties like Jimbo when they want to disparage something or somebody they always say 'wee'. They really are pathetic numpties.
Could that be the "Shy Kate" factor that was speculated about on the previous thread? SNP members who are too embarrassed to admit they will vote for Forbes in case they're called "far-right bigoted transphobes who are probably married to BEARDED TORIES"?
ReplyDeleteI don't see any more reason to jump to that conclusion (and I acknowledge that you don't) than that people would be shy about saying they're voting for Yousaf in case they're called trendy establishment Sturgeon drones.
A WGD numpty and a WGD liar.
ReplyDeleteHamish100 says:- " Just realised the poll was paid by the Torygraph. I will disregard such Tory propaganda."
Scottish Skier says:- " They, like Wings, would most likely back Regan. She seems to be the darling of the British.
Now you expect stupidity from Hamish and you expect lies from Skier but his lie about Regan being the darling of the British is so laughable it shows how desperate Sturgeons gang are. Skier is most definately a Sturgeon propagandist trying on WGD to stem the flow towards to the two female candidates. Skier the Yousaf supporter tries to fool the numpties on WGD by saying he will toss a coin between Forbes and Yousaf.
If the Britnat media favour any candidate they favour Yousaf as he is he one who declared he will wait for a sec 30 gold standard referendum. That will be a long long wait and we will all be dead before that happens because it won't happen.
Hamish also isn't impressed by the poll because he wasn't asked.
Delete" but then I am annoyed that I was never asked" Hamish says.
Now Hamish has the excuse that he was born a daftie but Skier he chooses to lie. Skier says:- " .. it's a close race between Yousaf and Forbes, with everything suggesting the favourite of the English/British media - Regan - doesn't have any hope of winning.
So has the liar Skier carried out his own polling to come to these conclusions - you know the self confessed expert on polling - nope. Skier also repeats the lie about the British media favouring Regan but provides no justification or even the teeniest bit of flimsy evidence for that lie. Even the Bathtub Admiral called him out for his lying about this. Skier is and always has been a Sturgeon propagandist.
Dafties and liars btl on WGD.
How did they find SNP members? Did they have access to the membership list, or is this a poll of people who claim membership?
ReplyDeleteThat's a bit of a pejorative way of putting it. The respondents will have been members of an online polling panel who probably confirmed months or years ago that they were members of the SNP.
DeleteRegan's delivery getting more polished and assured with each hustings.
ReplyDeleteYousaf says that each election will have independence as the issue. No idea what that means. Three hustings now and stil waiting for clarification. Is it the big issue for Yousaf - naw it's GRR. Yousaf should be in the Greens.
ReplyDeleteForbes goes big on independence not being an end in itself but a means to eradicating poverty in Scotland. Scotland can't afford not to be independent says Forbes.
ReplyDeleteYousaf says he doesn't just want to be FM but the first activist FM. Has anyone ever seen him at an independence march? I haven't and I've been on a few.
ReplyDeleteYousaf punting the old Sturgeon Wellbeing thing.
Yousaf now admits he is the continuity candidate after previously saying he wasn't. He goes for the woke central Votes. Not sure there are many of them in the Inverness audience.
ReplyDeleteYousaf punting the ethnic card - aye the guy that went to Hutcheson's private school in Glasgow has had a hard life. The headbanger thinks that the social progressive agenda will win Scottish independence. Aye getting GRR passed along with his Hate Crime bill will get Westminster to say here is your sec 30 referendum. Absolute nonsense.
ReplyDeleteRegan calls out the begging for a sec 30.
ReplyDeleteYousaf says there is no ruse because Sturgeon is the most intelligent politician and she couldn't figure it out. Pathetic twat. If that's the case the logic of his position is well why vote for him because he has given up. He goes for the sec 30 begging once again. Heard it all before from Blackford and Sturgeon.
Forbes punts making the Scottish economy the key driver to get independence. The devolved powers are of a microeconomics nature which can improve the economy but is ultimately limited as Westminster controls the revenues and all the macroeconomic tools. Most of Scotland's economic problems are caused by Westminster's mismanagement of the UK economy.
ReplyDeleteI was at the Inverness hustings today,Actually Kate Forbes knows very well the limitations of managing the Scottish economy during devolution.What she is actually saying is the the main battleground is the economy.What she means by that is to demonstrate to voters,the difference between what could be achieved by independance,in contrast to devolution.Her proposal to provide a 10 year costed vision of how we could use independence is excellent.
DeleteAnonymous - I am sure she does know the limitations and it wasn't my intention to imply otherwise, she is after all, the Finance Secretary. I was just pointing out that there are limitations to how good the Scottish economy can be in devolution no matter how good a devolved government is in Scotland if there are didies like Truss running the macro show in London. I have no problem with her proposal to have a 10 year costed vision of independence but right now every year the Britnats get a free propaganda gift called GERS. Not heard any of the candidates promising to stop producing this.
DeleteRegan punts the real gold standard is the ballot box not sec 30. Regan clearly growing in confidence and learning.
ReplyDeleteShe's reading from Alex Salmond's script and doing it worse than he is, he stuttered and stammered all the way through a SKY interview with Beth Rigby, it was positively cringeworthy his amateur attempts at troublemaking, even his best mate Tory David Davis was laughing at him
DeleteAnonymous - care to explain why the brilliant most intelligent Nicola Sturgeon spent the last 6 years begging for a sec 30 from a succession of Westminster PMs but the way less brilliant and way less intelligent Yousaf will be successful following the same strategy and how long it will take - years, decades, centuries or millennia.
DeleteAnonymous at 5.48pm yesterday. Not got a clue have you . I guess you are a WGD numpty then and too much of a coward to post using your WGD moniker. Pathetic.
DeleteForbes finishes with a line she used previously - continuity just won't cut it.
ReplyDeleteYousaf also uses a line he used previously in the need to set up a rebuttal unit. He says instant rebuttals not days later. Can't say I ever saw the previous or is it the current rebuttal unit doing any rebutting. He also says SNP HQ will need some reorganising. Aye right Murrell will tell him to pissoff. In summary, Yousaf trying to recycle some old mouldy carrots.
It's all irrelevant if Mr Murrell is in charge of vote counting. Yousaf will be declared winner.
ReplyDeleteThat's incorrect, Peter Murrell has no connection with the count or procedure
DeleteAnonymous - see when you are telling us the procedure can you also let us know how many people will be allowed to vote.
Delete