Many thanks to a commenter on the previous thread for pointing out that YouGov's poll is not the only one that has newly appeared - there's also one from Survation, and it shows a radically different trend.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation, 1st-7th February 2023)
Yes 49% (+2)
No 51% (-2)
Probably the most important point about these numbers is that they pose a tremendous credibility problem for the people who were indulging in fairly wild propaganda about the big drop for Yes in the Ashcroft poll and claiming that it showed Nicola Sturgeon had destroyed the independence cause or set it back decades, etc, etc. As I pointed out in my own post about the Ashcroft poll, when you just have one poll showing something surprising and out of the ordinary, you really have to exercise a bit of caution and scepticism until and unless some corroborating evidence appears. And here we have a timely demonstration of the reason for that - a poll with fieldwork that partly overlapped with the Ashcroft poll, and partly took place later, and yet showing completely the opposite trend, with Yes bouncing back to a virtual tie.
As for the difference between Survation and the new YouGov poll, I don't place too much importance on the fact that the YouGov fieldwork was a bit later than Survation's, because nothing really happened in the interim that would have had much of a dramatic impact on public opinion. (Nicola Sturgeon didn't announce her shock resignation until the YouGov fieldwork was almost over.) So the difference between the trends in the two polls may simply be margin of error noise.
Survation also have Westminster voting intention numbers that are markedly rosier for the SNP than YouGov's are...
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 42% (-1)
Labour 29% (-)
Conservatives 18% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Only statistically insignificant changes there, and no sign at all that Labour are about to storm into the lead.
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The trouble with polls providing information for the electorate in Scotland is the Britnats control all the mainstream media. So the Ashcroft poll gets big licks all over the media. That ugly wee obnoxious runt (Hislop) that edits private eye was quoting it to say independence is over on QTime last night. I felt sorry for Ruth Wishart being in amongst that ignorant bunch in Rugby. I quite like Wishart even though she is a Sturgeon supporting numpty but nobody deserves the treatment she got on that horrendous programme. The Bruce asked the audience in Rugby in a stuttering unclear fashion does anyone here support the SNP Sturgeon - put your hand up - the smirk on her face when no hands went up. The place was full of Jock hating English. So everybody there was against Ruth Wishart - all the panel and the audience - I hope she got a good fee for putting up with that.
ReplyDeleteOf course when the polls showed 19 in a row for independence these polls got no mention except for the odd Scotland in Union crap poll.
I didn't watch the programme but from your description it seems the political gulf between Scotland and England continues to increase which is, in my opinion, a good thing. I'm sure they said similar things the day after the 2014 referendum. Let the English wallow in their ignorance.
DeleteThe other Wishart Pension Pete gloating over Cherry not standing for leader on his twitter. What a total arse that guy is.
DeleteSo after saying a de facto referendum is for bams etc etc, he then switched to saying it was a great idea in June last year when Sturgeon proposed it. Now he seems to think the concept is likely dead.
In retrospect it would have been better if he had got his wish and became Speaker of the House of Commons and turned it in to a circus show as he has no talent and is a clown.
The SNP were invited to participate then uninvited
ReplyDeleteThe person referred to on the SNP NEC saying de facto referendums are dead - I wouldn't be the least surprised if that was my MP Kirsten Oswald.
ReplyDeleteThere's another poll out tonight, but with fieldwork after resignation (15-17), by Savanta.
ReplyDeleteIndy
Yes 49% (=)
No 51% (=)
Westminster
SNP: 42% (-1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
CON: 17% (-2)
LDM: 6% (=)
Holyrood
Constituency:
SNP: 43% (=)
LAB: 30% (+2)
CON: 17% (-1)
LDM: 8% (=)
List:
SNP: 32% (=)
LAB: 27% (+3)
CON: 16% (-2)
GRN: 14% (+1)
LDM: 9% (-1)
Sturgeon's personal ratings went up. Not a completely unusual effect when someone's going, as it reduces hostility to them a bit.
I suppose that all adds weight to the YouGov "outlier" theory.
I note that the question that Survation are asking is using the Remain/Leave rather than Yes/No format:
ReplyDelete"If there was a referendum with the question ‘Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’, how would you vote?"
Previously they have used the standard question:
"VI2.1 If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", how would you vote?"
I wonder why they changed the wording.