Friday, January 6, 2023

Positive straw in the wind from YouGov for the independence campaign

As I always say, if there are no full-scale Scottish polls around, the next best thing is a Scottish subsample from a GB-wide YouGov poll, because unlike other firms, YouGov appear to structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly.  That means all you have to worry about is the small sample size (which admittedly is still a major problem).  The first YouGov subsample of the year is moderately encouraging from a pro-indy perspective...

YouGov Scottish subsample (4th-5th January 2023): SNP 43%, Labour 27%, Conservatives 14%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Reform UK 5%, Greens 4%

As with the full-scale Scottish polls towards the end of last year, Labour seem to be falling short of a really telling breakthrough, and the hope must be that the Labour surge has now peaked.  If the unprecedented Tory chaos of the autumn wasn't enough to push Labour into an outright lead in Scotland, it's hard to see what else might yet come along to do the trick - at least until an election campaign is actually underway.  Pro-independence parties in combination have 47% of the vote - not quite enough in the context of a de facto referendum, but within plausible touching distance of the required outright majority.

Across Britain, Labour have a huge 21-point lead over the Tories.  However, there are also leadership ratings in the poll, and those figures are perhaps the clue as to why so many people remain to be convinced that the 2024 general election is unwinnable for the Tories.

Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? (GB-wide results)

Rishi Sunak: 26% (+1)
Keir Starmer: 31% (-1)

Months or years prior to an election, leadership numbers have often proved to be better predictors of the election result than headline voting intention numbers.  If that rule of thumb holds true on this occasion, we could be looking at a very narrow Labour victory, and a hung parliament remains firmly in the game.

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  1. For their first poll of the year, YouGov have changed the presentational format of their detailed breakdown from “regions” to countries. Voting intention in Wales is now clearly apparent without having to extrapolate from “midlands & Wales”. Keep it up.

  2. 'and the HOPE must be that the Labour surge has now peaked.' : personally I prefer terms such as likely or less likely etc - Salmond was very, very loathe to use 'hope'; Sturgeon never hesitates.

    Yeah, the English love their symbols of post-empire commonwealth superiority and want to gravitate back to the real thing and not choose tory-lite Starmer.

    Starmer is no Blair (as good a communicator as Bill Clinton) and Starmer is basically a liar. The tories will get their act together and people have short memories.

    Hunger leads to revolutions : the Eat-or-Heat should help indy but it's rather a shame that the SNP has become a pin cushion for the Brit critics and seems thoroughly unable to use Brit-created crises to the advantage of indy.

    ULTIMATELY, Salmond fkd off (through some B.S. justification the day after) and left the cause - irresponsible, he regrets it now of course. We need a nationalist in charge ASAP, someone prioritises indy over transient policy issues.

  3. You wrote "Ultimately Salmond fkd off and left the cause" which of course is correct, but that was because he had done his job for the Labour party and tanked independence

    Don't believe me? ask Alistair Campbell about the deal Salmond was offered, then they screwed him as soon as it was over
    Salmond was another mug for the Labour party along with McAskill Alec Neill and a couple of others