When the Tories completed their "taking stock" exercise in 1993, presenting a ragtag collection of cosmetic procedural changes (mostly involving the Scottish Grand Committee) as an answer to the Scottish people's desire for political devolution, Canon Kenyon Wright memorably replied as if he was marking an exam paper: "Interesting, but appears to have misunderstood the question." Those words popped into my head today when I saw the outcome of the SNP's NEC meeting. The SNP leadership would probably argue that they've listened to the concerns of those who think using a Westminster election as a de facto referendum would be a mistake, on the grounds that it would exclude 16 and 17 year olds, EU citizens, plus anyone who falls foul of the outrageous new photo ID rules. So an alternative to the main plan has now been proposed, which would see a Holyrood election used as the de facto referendum instead - but crucially, it would wait until the next scheduled Holyrood election in 2026. That's no use at all to the people who were actually arguing for a Holyrood de facto referendum, because they almost uniformly expected it to be a snap election held this year. There was never any intention that it should be used as an excuse for yet more delay.
Although I firmly believe that it is strategically wiser to use a Holyrood election, if I was confronted with a straight choice between the two options the SNP have set out today, I would undoubtedly choose the Westminster 2024 option, in spite of all the disadvantages of a narrower franchise. By far the most important consideration is to ensure a timely vote. If we wait until 2026, it means the people of Scotland will not be given a choice on independence until a full decade after they learned they were to be dragged out of the EU against their will. None of us should consider that remotely acceptable.
However, there are two big plus points here. Firstly, the NEC paper embraces the possibility of amendments at the special conference - so, in theory, delegates may yet be able to bring the option of a snap Holyrood election to the table, although given the control-freakery that the SNP leadership have become known for, I'll believe that when I see it. And secondly, in spite of the way some people are reacting tonight, there has at least been no climbdown from the principle of a de facto referendum - both of the main options would see a de facto referendum take place, albeit in one case it would take place far too late.
By far the weakest part of the paper is the nonsense built into the alternative option about the 2024 Westminster election being used to obtain yet another mandate for a referendum (that would be the fifth!). Only if that mandate is ignored would the 2026 Holyrood election be used as a de facto plebiscite. That creates a completely unnecessary additional hurdle. There's no reason why the 2026 election can't be used regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election. 2026 will be a standalone election and its result will speak just as powerfully no matter what happened in 2024. Why muddy the waters if the SNP win a majority of Westminster seats in 2024 but not a majority of the popular vote?
And there's also a needless sentence in the paper about how votes for other pro-independence parties will be counted towards the 50% + 1 target in a plebiscite election, but only if the SNP have entered into a pre-arrangement with those parties. That caveat is obviously only there to exclude Alba, and it really is idiotic beyond words. As you know, I don't think Alba should be intervening and risking a split in the vote in a plebiscite election conducted under first-past-the-post, but if they do, they could potentially take 0.5% or 1% of the vote, and excluding that from the pro-indy tally could needlessly convert a victory into a defeat. Talk about the SNP shooting the independence campaign in the foot.
Personally, I'm relieved that they've gone for the Holyrood election over the Westminster election, and I can understand their reluctance to call an early election even if I don't entirely agree with it. Their decision to effectively exclude Alba is a naked attempt to strangle them at birth and is pretty despicable. I suspect therefore that my Holyrood vote will be going to the Greens, even if I don't especially like all that they stand for, and as for my Westminster vote, I really don't know. I may abstain. If an Alba candidate stood in y constituency I'd vote for them.
ReplyDeleteOn the face of it, they haven't gone for a Holyrood election. The paper presents the Westminster election as the main option, with Holyrood in italics as an alternative.
DeleteFollowing on from May and Johnson telling Sturgeon to pissof with her phoney requests for a sec 30 if the SNP were truly a party of independence they would have announced in Jan 2020 that the 2021 Holyrood election would be a de facto independence referendum. Instead we got Sturgeon's surrender speech on Jan 30 2020, more years of time wasting and Both Votes SNP. Now the SNP NEC have the gall to suggest an option that puts it back to 2026 - 12 years after Sturgeon became leader - 12 years!!!!
ReplyDeleteApart from that, as they have proven on many occasions, that a Sturgeon promise is only there to be broken with the only variable being how long it takes I wouldn't put a penny on them delivering on a de facto in 2026. It was only 7 months ago she said in the Scottish Parliament it would be a U.K. GE de facto referendum. It's a shambles only if you still believe they want independence. The secret plan is the shambolic time wasting.
Yet you believe Alex Salmond wanted independence even with all the evidence showing that he did not, he wanted partial autonomy, not independence
DeleteKindly take your Trumpian lies elsewhere, Anon.
DeleteAnonymous - you are confused - it was Cameron, Clegg and Milliband who made the Infamous Vow not Salmond. I would ask you to provide your 'evidence' but I guess from James comment it wouldn't be published but they may well do in your natural home called WGD where it is normal to tell pork pies about Salmond. Indeed Dr Jim is indulging this very evening as it is his default response to some SNP crap that his nicophant mind cannae easily process. It's not you Jimbo is it?
DeleteAnonymous speak with forked arse.
DeleteDo you no think a lost wm pleb election will allow UK to craw forever more about 2 lost plebiscites weakening the movement and the ability to get recognition in a holyrood pleb?
ReplyDeleteMy worry is I don't trust them to do a subsequent holyrood pleb in 2026 even if they did one in wm (which they won't).
I think SNP are on a journey to becoming a devo admin party but can't publicly say so.. thay need to pretend to go for indy to near monopolise indy votes but they can't do it in a way that gives alba a foothold. That's why all fake indy proposals will exclude Alba who they obviously want to strangle at birth.
I think they'll probably succeed too as 95% of yes supporters seem in board with it demonstrating the lie "that yes supporters are more intelligent or politically engaged".
No they're thick as shit too
Well I believe SNP MP McDonald said that unionists should be invited to the SNP conference - I immediately thought it's not April 1st is it. My second thought was actually there are a lot there already.
DeleteOh well I suppose SNP members can console themselves with the fact that even if all these mandates for Indyref2 turned out to be a Sturgeon con trick they will get the freeports that they voted for in the SNP manifesto and SNP conference.
ReplyDeleteWhat - it wasn't in the manifesto and the members didn't vote for it at their conference!!!!!! Wow - who exactly is running the SNP show these days? Is it Rishi Sunak or Alister Jack?
Any SNP members know if the polis have finally completed their investigation into the missing £600k Indyref2 fund or is it being hindered by the Crown Office.
So Sturgeon had a nice meal with Sunak and Jack the very people telling us that we are a colony - no scrub that - rubbing our noses in it. Oh well not exactly braveheart is it.
I have very seldom posted on any political sites. I have however longed to see Scotland finally free and independent for over 50 years and to have the status of all other normal nations. But reading the self destructive petty personalised comments on here and other sites makes me despair that this will ever happen. If you all want to tear the whole movement apart and do the unionists job for them crack on. The national media will seize on it all as manna from heaven. Some of the posters here and on other sites look like they have strayed from some unionist newspaper sites and would be better suited with their friends there!! However I genuinely hope that there are enough people on both sides that can put their own egos aside long enough to work together for Scotland. For what my opinion in this small echo chamber is worth I feel both Nicola sturgeon and Alex salmond although both in their own ways have contributed massively to the cause of independence; they are both damaged goods in the eyes of the public after the last referendum and would be both better recognising this and letting their respective parties go forward with new leadership. But as we all live in the real world I hope that there are enough people from both parties that are pragmatic enough to work together against the very formidable forces against us of the British state and media.Finally James your site is immense and please continue, I may not always agree with you completely but I know your heart is totally in the right place!
ReplyDeleteA very important point for the let's all just be happy and let the great leader do what she thinks is best as she is the great leader who knows best:
ReplyDeleteIf it was fine by the great leader to have a referendum in Oct 23 and a De facto Holyrood referendum is good enough to be on the SNP NEC resolution then why is it not fine to have a de facto Holyrood referendum in 2023. It's a straightforward process to collapse Holyrood and have an election.
My answer is that the SNP leadership are just time wasters kicking the can down the road. Other answers are available like Pension Pete's lie that it would result in Dross becoming FM.
Well, of course they are but a new leader could make all the difference.
DeleteTurns out calling a Holyrood general election at a time of the Scottish Government's choosing is much easier and simpler than we thought.
ReplyDeleteThe Scotland Act 2016 made a little-remarked but very significant change to the laws governing the operation of Holyrood. To be more specific, it gave the Scottish Parliament permission for the first time to alter the terms of the Scotland Act 1998 which govern how the Parliament is run.
This is the section that determines whether the Parliament can vote to dissolve itself and call an early election at a time of its choosing. As things stand that requires a two-thirds majority.
But because of the changes in the 2016 Act, Holyrood can now vote to change that rule, so that only a simple 50%+1 majority is required.
All that needs to be done is for the SNP and Greens to pass a motion removing the need for a two-thirds majority, and then vote to dissolve the Parliament and hold a new election. There would be no vote for a new First Minister, no possibility for the Unionist parties to do anything to foil the plan. We’d move straight to a general election.
So lets hope branches and members put HR23 forward as a possible amendment.
Let's hope - we will see in March if the SNP members can revive the SNP back to its long standing status as a party of independence. No ifs no buts - remember Sturgeon's promise - a referendum in Oct 23.
DeleteAs I posted above it's a straightforward process to have a Holyrood election. It's the SNP leadership who want to kick the can down the road.
I have just read the big dug's recent article on this matter and he totally blanks the idea of HR23. No mention of it. WGD following the SNP party line to the end. These people ain't going to deliver independence. It's their own personal lifestyle they are more interested in preserving.
DeleteSturgeon has to hand over to someone who will confront the Brits - it's not her fault that nearly half of the Scottish electorate are weak BUT we need someone whose comfort zone is fighting the Brits, not having afternoon tea and tiffen with the British raj.
ReplyDeleteShe's weak, she has no faith in herself to lead a fight, nor faith in the Scottish electorate to journey towards sovereignty.
She took power with indy, in her mind, as a lost cause and destined the SNP to becoming an entrenched British administration project. The result is nothing... unless you believe a quiet, non-radical, subdued, almost silent, nauseatingly bovine SNP (with occasional, instantly forgettable PM questions in the largely ignored Westminster bubble) is a good thing.
The SNP is no longer a nationalist party (hasn't been since 2012) : it's a sovereigntist party - an independence party - nothing essentially wrong with that but we could sure use a nationalist leader to take the helm and bring the good ship Independence into shore.
Do we have anyone of Salmond's abilities ? No, of course not, but we need someone and we need that someone now, even if it's just someone honest, funny, courageous with vision.
Spot on.
DeleteIs there no end to the rank stupidity of the WGD nicophants. ( spoiler alert - no )
ReplyDeleteYesindyref2 (also known as The Bathtub Admiral) states quite clearly that the resolution is all the work of the dastardly devolutionalists of the SNP NEC. It's not Sturgeon behind all this she is a fundamentalist independence supporter says the Admiral.
The Admiral says:- " Whereas I think the NEC has been perhaps taken over by gradualists, and it's a bit of a battle. For me, it's a battle Sturgeon must win, simple as that. She is the leader with a well positive approval rate, against some faceless people who think they rule the roost."
You are a complete and utter numpty Admiral. Sturgeon owns the NEC - full of her placemen/women and pals.
The numpty quotes a debate way back in 2014 with Michael Moore to back up his opinion Sturgeon is a fundamentalist - a numpty living in the past.
No matter what Sturgeon does these numpties will spin their head round and round until they come up with some explanation.