Saturday, December 24, 2022

Could a Westminster veto of the GRR Bill cause the SNP and Green leaderships to be suddenly radicalised on independence?

Almost as soon as I'd posted the above tweet, a couple of people partially corrected me by pointing out that the UK Government also have the option of invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act, which until now has never been used.  Here is the key part of the text:

"Power to intervene in certain cases. 

(1) If a Bill contains provisions— (a) which the Secretary of State has reasonable grounds to believe would be incompatible with any international obligations or the interests of defence or national security, or (b) which make modifications of the law as it applies to reserved matters and which the Secretary of State has reasonable grounds to believe would have an adverse effect on the operation of the law as it applies to reserved matters, he may make an order prohibiting the Presiding Officer from submitting the Bill for Royal Assent. 

(2) The order must identify the Bill and the provisions in question and state the reasons for making the order. 

(3) The order may be made at any time during— (a) the period of four weeks beginning with the passing of the Bill, (b) any period of four weeks beginning with any approval of the Bill in accordance with standing orders made by virtue of section 36 (5), (c) if a reference is made in relation to the Bill under section 33, the period of four weeks beginning with the reference being decided or otherwise disposed of by the Supreme Court."

Surprisingly, then, no discretion at all appears to be given to the Presiding Officer - she seems to be obliged to simply follow the 'instruction' given to her by Alister Jack.  This harks back to the controversial "Governor-General" (or more accurately colonial Governor) role given to the Secretary of State for Scotland in the original 1978 devolution legislation that never actually took effect.  Crucially, though, this is still not a God-like power that can be exercised on a whim - it's potentially open to the courts to make a ruling on whether Jack has interpreted the Scotland Act correctly.  And ultimately whether a devolved law ends up before the courts because of a UK Government challenge, or because of a Scottish Government challenge to a Jack veto, may be a distinction without a difference.  The bottom line is that judges would decide whether the GRR Bill gains Royal Assent.

And if the courts rule against the Scottish Government, as they have a noticeable tendency to do in these cases?  It would either stop or pause a very bad law, to be sure, but I'm a bit disturbed by the number of independence supporters (perhaps I should call them 'former' or 'nominal' independence supporters by this point) who seem all too keen to achieve their objective of stopping the GRR Bill by such an obviously colonial mechanism.

That said, even I can see that there might be a side-benefit to a Westminster veto if that unfortunate event should actually arise.  Many of us worry that the SNP and Green leaderships are somewhat tepid in their support for independence - as if it's something they believe in as a distant ideal, but aren't that bothered about in the here and now.  But nobody could accuse them of feeling that way about gender self-ID - the circus of this week has been caused by them apparently regarding it as utterly unthinkable for this calendar year to pass without the GRR Bill being approved by Holyrood.

So how would they react if they discover that gender recognition reform isn't actually achievable under devolution?  We might suddenly find that independence is an absolute and urgent imperative for them after all - because they'd see it as the only way of getting the GRR Bill onto the statute book.  The only caveat is that they might have the thought at the back of their minds that a Starmer government in 2024 will remove the roadblock - but, there again, if they have sufficient patience to wait for Starmer, why the undue haste we've seen thus far?

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33 comments:

  1. I don't think the Section 35 applies here. GRR is a devolved matter and I cannot see how it impacts any reserved matter. It may impact how they have to recognise people with a certificate issued in Scotland should they decide to move to England but that would be about "English" law. A reserved matter as described in The Scotland Act cannot possibly be referring to laws/acts that are applicable only to England, surely?

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    1. The following article explains the argument for how S35 applies.
      https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2022/12/21/michael-foran-sex-gender-and-the-scotland-act/

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  2. It looks like the legal boys will be rubbing their hands again soon.

    It would be ironic if any blocking of the GRR Act by the British Government / UK Supreme Court actually gave the SNP leadership some courage. I would expect to hear plenty from Patrick Harvie, Lorna Slater and Maggie Chapman if this occurred

    However, in that event I won't be holding my breath regarding Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP cronies finding the courage of their convictions and actually confronting the Brits.

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  3. Could ANYTHING radicalise the SNP gov to become passionate about indy ? Actually, this might radicalise Mz S and the Greens; but the SNP... ? Well, you never know but Mz S is exhausted and burnt out, so it would have to radicalise a floundering SNP - maybe ?

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  4. Suddenly Sturgeon will decide to collapse Holyrood to have a de facto referendum early next year and wins independence all just so she can say sex is non binary and men are women and women are men whenever they want to. It's the law.

    In 2023 pink pigs will also be seen flying through the air.

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    1. Actually, she just might - her last act as SNP leader.

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    2. And would you vote for independence if that was their motivation? Because to me I don't care the motivation so long as it's done.

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    3. It won't matter because the SNP is lost at sea - hope I'm wrong - a gutless band of oafish middle managers : couldn't lead a conga.

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  5. " ...the circus of this week...". More of a horror show on full display - the only good thing is that at this time of year few people will have watched this horror movie. Sturgeon still getting it easy from the Britnat media as long as she doesn't actually hold any sort of vote on independence.

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  6. It is almost as if this was engineered to screw up Scottish independence. You could have clashed with Westminster over so many things, and would have right on your side. This Bill is obscene. Now will clash with the British establishment on the wrong side of the argument. Has there been infiltration? The usual suspects did it to the YesCymru movement.

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  7. The Tories never wanted devolution at all, but the SNP never wanted devolution either, and the reason for that was it was the Labour parties way of creating Scotland as a region of England from which there could be no return to the independent state of country
    The SNP are in the unenviable position of attempting to unravel something they never accepted as legitimate in the first place
    Never forget, it was the Labour party who created this trap to make sure and certain of the votes in Scotland being owned by them to use in England to gain overall power in that country

    Accepting devolution was admitting Scotland was not a country but a subservient territory of England
    Scotland cannot be taken back by any party under the current political system whether SNP or any other party, it must be taken back by the people but how does that be made to come about?

    Scotland's people must be made angry, angry enough to demonstrate in far greater ways than ever before
    Alex Salmond was never going to be the saviour even if the 2014 referendum had been miraculously won, which it never had a chance of doing,no matter how much people thought it might, England does not have to grant Scotland anything unless the international community puts pressure on them to do so and Alex Salmond did not pursue that direction
    Nicola Sturgeon is pursuing the use of the international community and they have responded positively, but it's the people of the country who must respond in their desire for independence or it will never happen
    There is no messiah able to just make it so without an angry nation behind it, no political trick, no constitutional law, no internet warriors waving their keyboards and insisting some other politician could do it better, they can't and it's a lie they're feeding gullible people

    People power is the only way just like every other country that's overthrown the oppressor
    Don't blame the politician, blame yourself for falling for the internet con artists tricks of dividing your forces and splitting people power into just irritating wee factions that are far easier to ignore than one big nation of angry people united behind one thing

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  8. So the bampot Scottish Greens get to stand in the foyer of the Scottish Parliament with their big rainbow flag on TV getting pictures taken but others are banned from taking in a Scotland flag (saltire) or a scarf with certain colours similar to suffragette colours. Can't say I ever imagined this happening when the Parliament first opened in 1999.

    One flew over the cuckoos nest ain't got anything on Sturgeon's Scotland.

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    1. Being honest, if I thought indy was a ideal and not just an expediecy for them, I'd happily vote Green (but not convinced).

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    2. The Greens have no genuine interest in independence - that's why Sturgeon took them on board. Both are only using independence as a 'flag of convenience' to pursue their real agenda - Stonewall's Queer Theory.

      Felix

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    3. Unfortunately, the evidence tends to agree : literally years of screaming about EU membership and trans rights with mere lip-service to indy.

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  9. Having trans activists on our side is not a good look for independence.

    They would make everything about them and GRR and given the unpopularity of GRR, this would reduce independence support.

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    1. You think the SNP and Greens didn't do their sums on this?
      I bet they 100% did, far from being a vote loser, this will be an international winner for independence

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    2. International is fine and all but national is more important : I don't think trans will affect much the YES vote - but the point is, do people still see the SNP as primarily a sovereignist party, or is indy blurred (a bit lost even) in the mix ?

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  10. It would be rather ironic if the parties (SNP and SGP of whom I am still a member) became more enthusiastic about independence when the Westminster parliament vetoes what is a very bad law. My son and a long time friend are convinced independence is now a lost cause because of the GRR, and they are indy supporters.

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    1. It's a bubble (at most hiccup) issue - won't harm indy - but SNP incompetence will.

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    2. 18 countries 350 million people the Council of Europe and the UN say it's a good law
      I think that's a little more impressive in prospective future allies, plus in independence terms a lot more important than some grouchy wannabe internet troublemakers who just want something to SNP bad about

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    3. 350 million people is approximately 5% of the global population. 18 countries is approximately 9% of the countries in the world.

      So what you're saying is that 95% of the global population, and 91% of countries in the world, don't have gender self-ID.

      Not exactly the norm is it.

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  11. '350 million people say it's a good law'! Interviewed them all personally have you? You're not Scotland's leading ladies toilet enthusiast...sorry, psephologist Scottish Skier are you?

    Honestly, it's this kind of delusional nonsense and hyperbole masquerading as 'fact' that's led us to where we are with independence reduced to a mere afterthought by the so-called 'national' party. Please head back to the Doghouse with the rest of the cult where wishful thinking is the order of the day.

    Felix

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  12. As the year draws to the close, I'd like to thank you James for your superb blog. It's so much more grown-up than its counterparts.

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    1. Agreed. Probably the opposite end of the spectrum would be "A Thousand Flowers", which is (was?) the most juvenile blog it's ever been my misfortune to stumble across.

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    2. I'd forgotten about A Thousand Flowers. Yes, whoever wrote that was a toddler.

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  13. Here is another Skier "fact" none of his family have ever been accosted in loos by anyone so therefore GRR is a good law.
    Skier says:-
    "There are thousands of trans people walking around and never has anyone in my family/friends//colleagues group been accosted in the loos by one."
    Oh and he also has a trans relative so once again he is an expert on trans matters and loos. Did he personally question his family/friends/ relatives? Somehow I doubt it.
    If you follow Skiers logic then if none of his group have ever been murdered then a law against murder must be a bad law. This is the mad liar Skier who also likes to pretend he is an expert on polling but he claims the polling that the public do not want GRR is rubbish.

    He truly has found his home on WGD with the other nicophant numpties who will accept any crap from Sturgeon. Thousands of trans people walking around claims Skier - is this in the Borders or in the world? What a numpty.

    No word from the numpties on how many sexes there are - is it 5 or 10 or more?

    Finally, you would think that the amount of time Skier claims he spends in loos carrying out his analyses someone might have told him to GTF out ya creep.

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    1. I'm sure Skier does have a trans relative. He just needs to look in the mirror! Thousands of them in the Borders, millions of them supporting GRA across the globe! Numpties will believe anything - even that Skier knows what he's on about.

      Felix

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    2. I don't see how they could quibble with this masterly analysis of the state of the nation:-
      “These are not 128 people randomly picked off the street. They are who Scots have chosen to be representative of them. To study all the facts, debate these and make the decisions. Scots asked these people to reform the GRC process in a mass voting exercise. Every adult Scot was given the opportunity to select these 128. Alba, the Tories, the Scottish Family party etc were alternatives who were opposed. The chamber is pretty much exactly how Scots wanted it to be.
      ...Incidentally, the MoE on 128 is +/-9%. So would still be a huge majority backing even if it was 9% too high!”

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  14. Dr Skier will protect the Scottish public from themselves and make sure that they stay tucked up:-
    "Worth remembering that Scots had no idea about the ins and outs of the GRA reform. Some of the polling was comically meaningless. Might as well ask people about the finer points of rocket science if you are going to start questioning them on complex medical matters. If folks don’t know much about a subject, you can get them to answer pretty much whatever you want if you frame the question right, particularly if you say something along the lines of ‘should doctors make the call’ (neglecting to mention these back self-id)."

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  15. Here is a WGD numpty expressing a numpties thought on biological sex. It's a Xmas cracker.

    Numpty Eilidh says:- " ....groups like For Women Scotland have a strict interpretation of biological sex and gender which may be linked to right wing ideology". So bampot Eilidh thinks there is a loose interpretation of biological sex and if you believe in science then you are right wing. The numpties never actually say if there are not 2 sexes then just how many are there. Aha I think I know what the problem is here. They are waiting for Sturgeon to tell them how many sexes there are.

    A strict interpretation is science ya numpty. Until there is scientific proof of more than two sexes ( and I don't see that happening any time soon) these bampots are no better than the religious nuts who think the world is only 10k years old. Eilidh you are cuckoo.

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    1. WGD bampot Eilidh is torn between two belief systems. Church of Scotland and Church of Sturgeon. Eilidh is not happy at the Church of Scotland Moderator criticising her living god 'oor' Nicola and the great leader's desire for independence via a de facto referendum.

      What to do when your belief systems collide? Eilidh chooses her living god - all hail Nicola! It's easy to see how these numpties can ignore facts/evidence/science as they have been doing it most of their lives. If Sturgeon said the world has self ID as flat the numpties would say the world deserves to be what it needs to be.

      So daftie Eilidh comes out with this final comment to explain why her Church disnae like her great leader 'oor' Nicola:- " ......NS is reportedly an atheist......" sorry Eilidh, wrong again, she has created her own Church of Nicola for you to believe in an alternative god and the church disnae like that.

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  16. No as they are now owned by anti Indy Wokist pussies.

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