Thursday, November 3, 2022

A second poll suggests Sunak might be getting the Tories back into the fringes of contention

Until now, the only sliver of a suggestion that Rishi Sunak might have gained some meaningful traction since becoming leader came from a single poll conducted by Opinium, which stuck out like a sore thumb as an outlier, because it was flatly contradicted by several other polls from multiple firms.  But now Redfield & Wilton Strategies have published a poll with very similar numbers to Opinium, and indeed it's the first poll from any firm for over a month to have the Tories as high as 30%.

GB-wide voting intentions for the next general election (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 2nd-3rd November 2022):

Labour 47% (-3) 
Conservatives 30% (+3) 
Liberal Democrats 12% (+3) 
Reform UK 4% (+1) 
SNP 3% (-1)
Greens 3% (-2) 

Scottish subsample: Labour 40%, SNP 30%, Conservatives 15%, Liberal Democrats 11%

I've included the Scottish subsample for information, but don't be overly alarmed by it - the sample is a tiny 77 respondents and is almost certainly not correctly weighted.  That said, it's unusual to see Labour ahead in any Scottish subsample, and this is therefore another timely warning of the dangers of playing silly buggers by even thinking of splitting the pro-independence vote in first-past-the-post Westminster elections.

This is actually the third Redfield & Wilton poll since Liz Truss departed, so the percentage changes listed above underestimate the scale of the swing back to the Tories, who have gained a full eleven percentage points since 19th October.  But what will alarm Labour far more is Keir Starmer's personal ratings.  Although his net satisfaction rating as an individual is slightly higher than Sunak's, he actually trails Sunak by 43%-37% on the head-to-head measure of who would make the best Prime Minister.  That question has in the past often proved a better predictor of election results than headline voting intentions.

There was a piece on Stormfront Lite the other day pointing out that the betting markets still give the Tories a remarkably decent percentage chance of winning the general election, at a time when the conventional wisdom is that a Labour government is near-inevitable.  When the betting markets are more favourable for the Tories than the conventional wisdom, I would normally say conventional wisdom is more likely to be right, because there have been plenty of past examples of distorted odds on the markets due to wishful thinking on behalf of punters who are disproportionately Tory.  But on this occasion, with Sunak leading Starmer as the favoured PM, and with Labour 'only' seventeen points ahead, and with up to two years still to go, I'm not sure anyone would be justified in saying with confidence that a Labour victory is certain or even close to certain.  Likely, yes, but that's a lesser word.

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18 comments:

  1. Absolutely staggering that in the middle of this UK political, economic, criminal and social shitfest that 30% in GB would even consider voting Tory never mind saying they will. So about £20 million people would vote Tory and let's be honest here the bulk of them are English. England just does not share the same values as Scotland. This one happy UK family of nations is just "utter pish" as somebody said recently.

    Has the economic situation ever been worse?

    1. Recession forecast for two years.
    2. High inflation.
    3. High interest rates.
    4. Tax increases.
    5. Cuts to public services spending.
    6.Below inflation pay rises.
    7. Overall shocking cost of living increases.
    8. Businesses struggling to survive.
    9. Unemployment, evictions and repossessions forecast to increase dramatically.
    10. Massive UK debt of over £2 trillion.
    11. No Global Britain trade deals worth mentioning. USA trade deal nowhere.
    12. Brexit a disaster.

    That's my dirty dozen on the economic side that will make many many people very miserable, some ill, some commit suicide and others just die. So to answer my own question I don't think it's been worse in my lifetime - not even the financial crash of 2008 - perhaps it was worse in the Great Depression of 1930. Yet 20 million people in GB would vote for more of the same.
    What's the Great Leader Sturgeon doing about it - waiting for a Britnat court in London to give her permission for a referendum - that's what. F***ing useless. I'll bet the heatings on in Bute House.

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    1. A note for the anonymous numpties, the WGD numpties and forteanjo. Sturgeon could have got her Lord Advocate to go to the UK Supreme Court to establish if she could carry out a legal Scottish referendum anytime since she became leader in 2014 - 8 years ago. Or even after 2017 - 5 years ago - when she first said she was having a referendum. She didn't. She fed the numpties a load of bullshit about the "gold standard" and Westminster will cave in to Scottish democracy. She continually asked for a mandate at elections for a referendum she knew Westminster would not agree to and that any alternative may be illegal in English law. A charlatan. The facts always trump blind faith.
      Numpties just cannae handle the truth.

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    2. As you mentioned the Great Depression, what happened next was an absolute tsunami for the Tories, in their ruling coalition with the Ramsay Macdonald split from Labour:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election

      So yes, England may very well vote Tory for more of the same. I don't think we're in 1992-1997 territory at all. The media was far more sycophantic to Labour for the duration. But no one's getting any oxygen but the Tories now.

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    3. A further reminder to the numpties of the complete and utter crap that they have been accepting now for years.

      Pension Pete Wishart,SNP MP, top purveyor of Sturgeon's crap, said this in 2020:

      " I profoundly believe that Johnston will agree to participate in an Indyref2 if we prevail with a majority in May."

      Two Prime Ministers later and a crashed economy - thanks very much numpties. Johnston didn't just tell Sturgeon no to a sec 30 once he told her to f***off multiple times as he was too busy partying during lockdown.
      I'm guessing cosy slipper Wishart must have been consulting Sturgeons psychic sister.
      Sturgeon is a time waster aided and abetted by numpties who are too thick to see it.

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    4. A note for the Unionist troll, Independence for Scotland, holding an indy ref isn't the same as winning one. 🤦‍♂️

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    5. Note for Forteanjo (because it looks like he needs it): Never holding an indyref is EXACTLY the same as losing one.

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    6. Forteanjo, you, just like all the other numpties, just cannae handle the truth. Sturgeon is doing a balancing act. Telling the numpties now and again she wants a referendum and scottish independence to keep her vote up but she will never deliver independence because she wants to remain the devolution Queenbee in Scotland.
      How anyone can trust Sturgeon and her gang is beyond me. She stabbed Salmond in the back not once but multiple times, not in the usual political way, but tried to send him to prison for years, perhaps even for life. A very unpleasant untrustworthy person.

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    7. There isn't a facepalm large enough for the kind of comments the Unionist Troll, Independence for Scotland, comes out with.

      Suppose your right. Do you think the SNP can keep winning elections? Recent polls show Labour, yes Scottish Labour, coming in strong and could be a real challenger at both Holyrood and Westminster. If that happens, what will Sturgeon's legacy be?

      Now, you can claim she's got a cushy number lined up for when she's no longer FM but that doesn't change the fact she would leave behind a legacy of failure. Doesn't exactly jive with your assertion she just wants to be Queenbee.

      On the other hand, if she actually delivered independence, she would go down in the history books as the "Mother of the Nation". Just look at how Labour still talk about Dewar nearly 30 years later.

      But hey, who needs logic when your goal is simply to troll?

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    8. Forteanjo - if you think that is logic then once again you have confirmed you are a numpty. Plenty of numpties have trolled me on SGP Forteanjou - you have joined the list. The thing about you numpty trolls is you never dispute the actual facts I post - you can only resort to the standard numpty troll comment - "your a Unionist". Who needs facts when you are a numpty troll.

      Labour - don't make me laugh - there are plenty numpties like you who will keep on voting SNP no matter what happens - numpties can always think up a delusional excuse eg there wasn't a referendum in 2020 because of Covid.
      Explain why Sturgeon picks a UK GE as a de facto referendum when it is the worst franchise for a yes vote. Go on numpty - explain that one away. Mother of the nation - you numpties are truly delusional. Sturgeon has been Queenbee for a long long time. You SNP numpties are as delusional about Sturgeon as Labour was/is about Dewar. Dewar the man who wanted to change the Scottish sea border to give England a tranche of oil fields. Dewar got a statue for that. Scottish politicians selling out the country of their birth to England to further their own interests. Numpties like you would give Sturgeon a statue as well.
      If independence ever happened it would be in spite of Sturgeon and her gang's best efforts.

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    9. The logic is sound, Unionist Troll, it's your reasoning that's faulty.

      But let's just assume for a minute or two that you're right. What does that get you. We'll be stuck for Sturgeon for at least the next 6, 7 years (or maybe even longer) and you can do nothing other than feebly scream into the void about how much you hate the SNP, all whilst Sturgeon continues to live rent free in your head.

      You remind me of a certain urine-stained Lord.

      In fact, all the traits are there, a troll, complete disdain for indy supports, a pathologic obsession with the First Minister. You are Lord Foulkes and I claim my £5.

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    10. Forteanjou - no reply to my question about why Sturgeon has picked a UK GE as a possible de facto referendum - the worst possible franchise for a yes vote - just more ignorant insults. You are a classic numpty - trolling - no answers - no debate. Very sad but there is plenty like you unfortunately. Numpties just cannae handle the truth.

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    11. What, seriously? The answer, of course, coz we're expecting a UK General Election BEFORE another Holyrood one. i.e. to expedite the issue as quickly as possible. 🤦‍♂️

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    12. What seriously. You are the numpty who said " holding a referendum isn't the same as winning one". See your post above.
      Numpties never make sense.

      " expedite the issue as quickly as possible" 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 Sturgeon could have used the Scottish Parliament election in May 21 as a de facto refendum if she wanted to expedite it as quickly as possible. That has the same franchise as indyref1. Or Sturgeon could collapse the current Scottish Parliament and use that as a de facto referendum. That would expedite it as a quickly as possible .
      Sturgeon could have sorted out the question of the legality of a referendum years ago. The thing about numpties is they normally stick to insults because their arguments are pish.

      Also for a party that wants to rejoin the EU a UK General Election franchise discrimates against EU citizens as they don't get a vote. This is the master plan that Sturgeon has kept hidden in her handbag for so long is it. Exclude EU citizens from a vote for Scottish independence and rejoining the EU. I am sure that will look just great in Brussels - not.

      Where is this on Mike Russells 11 point plan? Or is this now on the floor of his horsebox with all the horshit.

      These people are not serious about independence or they are bigger fools than Mr Bean.

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  2. YouGov (field work 1st - 2nd Nov) Scottish sub-sample is up.
    Lab - 33%, Con - 19%, SNP - 36%.
    SNP + Greens - 41%.
    No apparent explanation for seemingly dramatic fall in fortunes. Put it down to sample size and noise.

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    1. The previous YouGov subsample (which wasn't that long ago) was much better than that. The truth may be somewhere in between the two extremes.

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  3. The Mystery

    Just why is the supposed leader ( thats Sturgeon believe it or not) of Scottish independence so determined to introduce a policy (trans self ID) that is clearly very unpopular in Scotland and will probably become more and more unpopular as more people realise what it entails and the Britnat papers report on more sexual nutters attacking women and children and then being put in a women's prison. If you want independence and it is your top priority and you think you are having a referendum next year why do this? A law that there is a good chance will be cancelled by Westminster anyway and the Britnat papers can spin it as the nutters in the SNP trying to introduce a dangerous policy but Westminster has come to the rescue of the Scottish people.

    Sturgeon's day job was Scottish independence. Somebody seems to have changed her job spec and it wasn't the people who voted SNP for independence.

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    1. The answer for numpties like Forteanjou is Sturgeons priority is her identity politics not Scottish independence.
      Numpties just cannae handle the truth.

      Delete
  4. Random Totty from Freedom SquareNovember 6, 2022 at 8:48 PM

    You're cute
    Hehe

    ReplyDelete