Thanks to Marcia for pointing me in the direction of fresh independence numbers from YouGov, although the fieldwork took place a few weeks ago. It seems to be from their most recent Scottish poll that we've already seen results from, so either the independence numbers must have been withheld at the time of publication, or they passed under the radar somehow. I'm not sure exactly when they finally emerged into the light.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 30th September - 4th October 2022)
Yes 49% (+4)
No 51% (-4)
49% is higher for Yes than in any of the last five YouGov polls, which have all had the pro-independence vote in a range between 45% and 47%. The last time Yes were as high as this with YouGov was way back in March 2021.
Of course we still have no information yet on the impact of Liz Truss' resignation on indy support, but these numbers make it 'increasingly' hard (to use a weasel word beloved of unionists) to credibly claim that Yes were going backwards prior to the Prime Minister completing her remake of The Damned United. There were plenty of frantic attempts on social media to make that claim, but in fact YouGov are pointing to a substantial Yes increase, while Panelbase and ComRes have suggested a steady position or perhaps even a slight tick upwards for Yes. Deltapoll have nothing to say about the trend because they have no previous history of polling on independence.
And certainly any notion from the "silent majority" brigade that the death of the Queen was the end of the road for the independence cause now looks like wishful thinking on stilts.
* * *
If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue in some form, donations are welcome HERE.
WTactualF dribbles through the intellectually challenged House Jocks that they are just too timid to go YES. A nation of uncle Tams - fkn self-flagellating slave mentality. We should be at 56% YES now (even taking into account Nicola's awe inspiring indy ladership), a bunch o' fkn slaves. Salmond, why the fk did you resign - wish you hadn't.
ReplyDelete'The death of the Queen' - ha ha. People will be a tad more concerned with eat and heat this winter. A revolution has more chance of success when 'hunger' is the impetus and when the middle class are pressured - with any luck this Brit government will do just that. Have yourself a medievil Xmas.
ReplyDeleteA Xmas day treat for a lot of people in this shithouse of a country called the UK will be having the heating on for most of the day.
DeleteI don't think Santa is that rich.
DeleteOff topic, but I noticed that Rachel Watson has left the "Scottish" Daily Mail for the "Scottish" Sun
ReplyDeleteWho is she?
DeleteAnonymous - that happened some time ago.
DeleteJames - A Britnat political editor who turns up on BBC/STV political programmes. Not sure the relevance of anonymous's posting.
Steven Gerrard sacked for lack of success at Aston Villa after 11 months.
ReplyDeleteLiz Truss sacked for being a complete numpty - even worse than the WGD numpties - after only a few weeks.
Nicola Sturgeon lauded for and boasting about seeing off 4 Prime Ministers, some of whom must be the most useless ever, after 8 years in the job. Her job is supposed to deliver Scottish independence. 8 years no success not even a referendum. Just lots of broken promises but numpties keep her in power.
James, nasty WGD numpty DrJim thinks this poll and polls in general are shit.
ReplyDeleteThe evidence he bases this conclusion on - wait for it - wait - wait
Dr Jim says: " I haven't met anyone in the last month who doesn't want independence."
Yep that's it. What a numpty.
I haven't read the WGD comments section for months, so I'm not normally in a position to offer any opinion, but I have to agree with you this time - if "Dr Jim" said that, it's an astonishingly dim comment.
DeleteJames Dr Jim said: " A new poll shows support for independence has leapt up by four points yet managing to maintain the same result at 50/50. I have a feeling these polling result inventors can't keep this charade up for much longer. I haven't met anyone in the last month who doesn't want independence. "
DeleteThis is not the first time he has rubbished the validity of polls on Scottish independence. Personally, I think he cannot understand why his great leader has not got the polls up to 70% yes (or something like that) in readiness for Indyref2 next year so the polls must be a Britnat fix. Cognitive dissonance.
Is "Dr Jim" a medical doctor or an academic? Either way you'd think he could count. 49 minus 4 is 45, not 50. The last YouGov poll was Yes 45%, No 55%.
DeleteA musician I think. Can you be a doctor of music? Harmonious stuff post he doth not.
DeleteMr Kavanagh of WGD fame has clearly been reading my posts as he has come out for Johnston in his latest article to be the next PM. It's not the first time he has copied one of my posts😃😂.
ReplyDeleteMr Kavanagh is also getting impatient about the lack of an independence referendum as he says: " There is a lot to be said for having the independence referendum next week"
Now that sounds to me he does not believe in the Irish Skier's ski slope analysis of do nothing because there will always be a better day to have a referendum in the future. It also sounds like to me he is criticising the SNP's slow slowly slow approach to independence and, that of course, is against his own site rules. I guess he will just have to ban himself from blogging on his own site.🤣 A bit like the numpty Truss who didn't vote for herself in Wednesday's vote of confidence in herself and in theory should have kicked herself out the Tory party along with her Chief Whip who also abstained.
Numpties everywhere.
The Better Together Britnats boasted in 2014 of the UK's triple A credit rating and stated Scotland would lose that after independence and borrowing costs would be higher. As ever with the Britnat statements from 2014 it is turning to dust. It didn't take much time after 2014 for the triple A to be downgraded to double A and now the UK is being warned of a possible further downgrade soon if it doesn't get its act together.
ReplyDeleteBetter Together 2014 = Lies and Broken Promises.
I'm not going to publish the last comment that came in because it had a kind of 'concern troll' feel about it. You'll have to forgive me if I'm wrong about that, but I can only go on instinct, particularly with an anonymous commenter. But as far as your first point is concerned, I've seen enough of the WGD comments section in the past to know that Scot Goes Pop does get mentioned there with reasonable regularity, often in a rather snide coded fashion. So it's not all a figment of the imagination of IFS.
ReplyDeleteJames, I always do my utmost to ensure that anything in quotes is accurate even the spelling mistakes. The rest is my opinion. Numpties won't like it - others will. I happily leave you to judge if any of my comments are inappropriate for your blog but take responsibility for the contents.
DeleteJames, I wouldn't be surprised if the anonymous you refer to above is The Bathtub Admiral. He regularly posts his concern for you as he claims I have been misleading you and taking you to the dark side - namely Alba - as if. The same guy who is always posting what you need to write about and not write about to be acceptable to him.
DeleteOh for pity's sake. If anyone drove me to Alba it was the SNP leadership, due to their inaction on independence and their identity politics zealotry.
DeleteI’ve been doing YouGov Surveys since well before 2014. Leading up to the 2014 Referendum I would be asked over and over if I was voting Yes/No or Don’t Know. I always put Don’t Know and at 50p a survey it paid well. They were forever checking to see if I changed my mind. Two years ago I put that I would vote YES if there was another Referendum and since then I’ve been excluded from daily surveys. So, it’s really mainly Don’t Knows they are checking. They know what percentage are Yes. Other Yes supporters have also having few surveys. If Don’t Knows have gone from 49% to 56% for Yes then that’s great.
ReplyDelete"So, it’s really mainly Don’t Knows they are checking."
DeleteThat wouldn't make sense - it would distort the results massively if they didn't interview the already committed.