Sunday, July 17, 2022

In Liz we Truss-t: new leadership poll confirms Tory members are from another planet

Penny Mordaunt performed poorly in the Tory leadership debate on Channel Four two nights ago, so it's no surprise to see her support dip in the new ConservativeHome survey.  But what makes no sense whatsoever is that one of the two main beneficiaries of Mordaunt's flop is Liz Truss, who by general consensus performed even worse than Mordaunt in the debate and indeed was probably the most dire of the five candidates.  When the membership of a party are seeing and hearing things so differently from everyone else, it suggests they may not be ideally placed to select a general election winner, and I'm sure most of us will agree that a Truss premiership would be like Christmas for the Scottish independence movement.

In fairness, Truss is not quite the biggest gainer in the survey - Kemi Badenoch has stormed to the top of the rankings.  That's a bit peculiar too, though.  She didn't embarrass herself in the debate, but she didn't come across as someone who was ready to be Prime Minister either.  And her surge may not actually matter all that much, because Tory members will only get a chance to choose her if she's one of the two candidates put forward by MPs, and for that to happen she'd have to overtake both Mordaunt and Truss over the next couple of days.  The big gains for Truss in the survey mean there will be no great incentive for the backers Truss already has to switch to Badenoch.

ConservativeHome leadership survey of Conservative members:

Kemi Badenoch 31% (+12)
Liz Truss 20% (+9)
Penny Mordaunt 18% (-2)
Rishi Sunak 17% (+5)
Tom Tugendhat 10% (+3)

I said the other day "I think Penny Mordaunt is the next Prime Minister".  Obviously I now have to row back from that level of certainty, but nevertheless I think it can be credibly argued that Mordaunt should still be considered just about the favourite, because there's a high probability of a Sunak v Mordaunt run-off, and the members clearly aren't at all keen on Sunak.  But, yes, it has to be said that there's now a non-trivial chance that Liz Truss will be Prime Minister within a few weeks, and that's tremendously exciting for all of us.

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We've already seen since Nicola Sturgeon's announcement that the overwhelmingly unionist mainstream media are attempting a 'shock and awe' campaign to try to kill off independence - and the misuse of polling is playing a key part in that.  If you'd like to balance things out with polling commissioned by a pro-independence outlet and which asks the questions we want to see asked, one way of doing that would be to help Scot Goes Pop's fundraising drive - see details below.

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  1. The idea that the overwhelming aged (80% over 65), almost exclusively white conservative membership is going to vote a black Nigerian immigrant (her words) as leader is risible.

    The conservative members who will decide via postal votes don't do "Conservative Home" surveys.

    It'll be Mordaunt.

    Truss is too stupid even by tory standards, Sunak is too vulnerable (green card, wife's tax avoidance, wife's £100k furlough payment etc etc) and Tugendhat is too "left-wing".

    1. The ConHome surveys have a good track record of accuracy, and if anything the people who take part in them tend to tack more to the right than the wider membership. I don't particularly doubt that Badenoch is doing very well with the membership, but I don't think they'll get the chance to vote for her.

    2. They have a good track record with white male candidates but that is hardly rocket science.

      Black female immigrants? Indian/Asian with an Indian wife and dodgy finances/citizenship - especially since there's now zero chance of any trade deal with India due to their relationship (reselling oil) with Russia?

      Dream on - I live in amongst some of the last conservative clubs in England & "I'm not racist but.../Some of my friends are black" is one of the most uttered phrases from the grey gammons & blue rinse brigade.

      White, English & Christian is what they want - in that order.

    3. I respectfully disagree - I see no reason to doubt that the ConHome survey is at least in the right ballpark.

    4. We have a different perspective I reckon.

      I've spent the last 30 years living in areas which haven't voted anything but Tory since the 1940s - Blair's 97 landslide was a minor tremor around here.

      You live in an area which is the polar opposite.

      We'll see who's right :)

    5. No we won't! As I'm now saying for the third time, Tory members are highly unlikely to get the chance to vote for Badenoch because MPs won't put her on the shortlist.

    6. Anonomyous (yes I get the irony) please stop race baiting. The Tories have many many faults but they seem willing enough to accept ethnic minority candidates into positions of power. The only one who raises doubts to the suitability of MAME candidates and wants to make it an issue is you.

    7. It's like F1 mate - how much money can you bring to the party. ALL the "ethnic minority" MPs in the tory party are independently wealthy and have via various methods contibuted millions to the party.

      Prove me wrong - name just ONE who hasn't made 5 or 6 figure donations prior to getting their sinecure.

      The idea tories aren't racist beggars belief given their Rwanda policy.

      Now fuck off back to tory central eh?

    8. BAME obviously before someone jumps in and realises my spellchecker is a fan of retro gaming…

  2. On the TV show on Channel 4, Sunak did himself few favours, one of his most dismal moves being to patronise the NHS worker near the end, call her a "hero" and fail to answer her simple question.

  3. James, you seem to be getting a lot of flak these days. I have been reading your blog as my number 1 source every day for years.
    I agree with your move to Alba although I'll stick with SNP.
    I admire both Alex and Nicola, and Patrick and Lorna. So, I'm wondering, who's trying to break us up and why.

    1. If you have faith in Patrick and Lorna you're going to be sorely disappointed. Independence is merely a flag of convenience for them by which to pick up SNP transfers on the list. All they care about is the GRA.

  4. Just imagine if the Tory MPs put forward Sunak and Badenough to the wider membership, as the final selection. Oh gosh, this is such fun ;)

  5. The new PM will be another Scotland hater. That's a certainty.