Monday, May 16, 2022

#Referendum2023 : Time to unveil the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls as our guaranteed referendum fast approaches

"The key thing is that we will take these steps in a timescale that facilitate that referendum before the end of 2023, which is the commitment I made at the election and was elected on overwhelmingly at the election." - Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland, January 2022 

"The Scottish Government fully intends to fulfill its manifesto commitment to the people of Scotland...Speaking on Wednesday the First Minister said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not changed her view that a second independence referendum should go ahead in 2023...Of course some people are never going to be satisfied because they have convinced themselves that the SNP 'doesn’t really' want a referendum, and nothing that Nicola Sturgeon says or does is going to shift them from that view, however for the rest of us the First Minister’s statement is a welcome confirmation that an independence referendum will indeed go ahead in the latter half of 2023." - Paul Kavanagh, SNP-supporting blogger, March 2022

It's a commitment.  It's confirmed.  It's a certainty.  It's simply a fact, and there's no going back.  Thanks to the majority SNP-Green government's #2023ReferendumGuarantee, up to four million Scots will be visiting their local polling stations (or casting a postal ballot) at some point during 2023 to decide whether or not their country should become independent, or should continue to be governed by Tories in London.  The referendum is of course coming three or four years too late to prevent Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will, as the SNP originally promised us they would do - but hey, better late than never, and thankfully because of the SNP's current promises, there is no danger whatsoever of any further delay beyond December 2023.  The absolute last date on which #Referendum2023 can be held is 21st December 2023, which thrillingly means it's now a MAXIMUM of just 584 days away!

As we're on the last lap before we enter full-blown campaigning for a 2023 referendum that is DEFINITELY taking place, it's long past time that I resurrected the Scot Goes Pop independence Poll of Polls, so we can see how public opinion evolves as referendum day approaches next year.  As in the run-up to the first referendum eight years ago, I'll be using an average of the most recent poll from each of the polling firms that have been active within the last few months.


Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 44.3%
No 46.1%

With Don't Knows excluded:

Yes 49.0%
No 51.0%

(Note: the above averages are based on seven polls - one from Savanta ComRes, one from Survation, one from YouGov, one from Panelbase, one from Opinium, one from BMG and one from Ipsos-Mori.)

So it's not at all hard to see why the majority SNP-Green government decided to guarantee that a referendum will take place before the end of 2023 - Yes practically have the support of half the population once undecideds are stripped out, which is a truly fabulous platform on which to start any campaign.  (Remember that there were polls in the early stages of the first indyref campaign that showed No ahead by a 2-1 margin.)


  1. I like these posts.

    Out of interest what were the dates of each of the polls used in the averages? Just curious. Was there much difference between the firms when they were compiled?

    (As an aside I noticed there were comments from another Robert in the last thread in addition to me, so I've added the initial from my surname as an extra identifier)

  2. It's good to see people take an interest in things but this Scottish navel-gazing is a bit self-obsessed. There's a whole world out there that the Scottish need to be made aware of. There's a pandemic out there, a war in the Ukraine, Britain is celebrating a platinum jubilee, the natives are restless in Ulster again, and on a lighter note we almost won the Eurovision for the first time in 30 years and two WAGs are at war in the highest court in the land.
    Life is two short people. Join the world!

    1. "Life is two short people" - who are these people. Is this some sort of new religious sect set up by two dwarfes?

    2. I'd like to know who those short people are.

    3. What a deeply odd person - if a person at all.

    4. We're perfectly capable of doing two things at once, especially when one of them is fundamental to how we deal with the others. It isn't navel-gazing to want to equip ourselves to better embrace the world.

    5. Life is Ronnie Corbett and Rishi Sunak

  3. STV's Scotland Tonight sticks the boot in to Alba and Salmond.

    No mention of Alba in the run up to the election and now a panel consisting of a Labour adviser, a Sun ( ex Daily Mail) reporter and Geoff Aberdein (who made it clear he still supports the SNP) says Alba and Salmond should just pack it in. Alba the party not worthy of a comment prior to an election but everyone wants them to go away and die. Any decent programme would have had Salmond or a member of Alba on the panel to defend themselves but this is the Britnat media. The media that the mad liar Irish Skier says is promoting Alba - Skier posts utter pish.

    With friends like Geoff Aberdein Salmond is not short of enemies. Aberdein is the guy whose testimony to the Inquiry in to Sturgeons persecution of Salmond was kept secret and he kept his mouth shut about the matter. He now pops up to say Salmond should leave front line politics because Alba is not doing well after ONE YEAR in existence. Clearly that is why Aberdein was invited on to the programme.

    Colin MacKay even chips in and says most young people will not even know who Salmond is. Nothing like a balanced programme and this was not it. The programme showed a Sturgeon speech and not a word of criticism. The money she gives to the Britnat media is paying dividends. They know Sturgeon is a safe pair of hands for the Union.

    1. "Colin MacKay even chips in and says most young people will not even know who Salmond is."

      Alex Salmond was First Minister until seven and a half years ago, and the BBC and STV shoved his trial down viewers' throats a mere two years ago. So by "young people", I can only assume Colin means "toddlers".

    2. Exactly James. A disgraceful hit job by STV and sad that Aberdein took part in it. The very fact that the Labour adviser worked for Alistair Darling for many years shows why the panel was chosen. She couldn't keep the smug smile off her face.

      Sturgeon/ Swinney could have put their foot down and insisted on broadcasting being devolved during the Smith Commission negotiations but they meekly capitulated and got very little. They will never deliver independence.


    Barpe - " How lucky we are to have such a leader in Scotland, cherish her and get behind her - or possibly forget Indy for another generation."

    Jumping Jack Collatin - " In Sturgeon we have a FM who carries herself as a leader, and ensures that Scotland is now considered a sovereign nation in its own right."

    davetewart - " Love Nicola or hate her they have to admit she is a class communicator."

    Dr Jim - " Scotlands First Minister in talks with the world and the world shows her the utmost respect and honours her attendance.
    " .......will look back and rue the day they lost this First Minister Nicola Sturgeon when the rest of the world snaps her up."

    I remember a big crowd around Sturgeon at the end of the National gathering in George sq in Nov 2019. They all wanted selfies and were treating her as if she was a pop star. I thought she is a politician not Beyoncé and it just didn't seem appropriate. Just like the gushing stuff you get on WGD. Idolising a politician is never a good thing. It leads to delusional nonsense like Dr Jim saying there is a date for a referendum and Collatin saying " Scotland is now considered a sovereign nation in its own right." These numpties are losing any grip on reality they ever had.

    1. "cherish her and get behind her - or possibly forget Indy for another generation"

      The real reason we may have to forget about indy for another generation is this cult-like absolutist faith in a leader who is doing nothing to bring independence about.

    2. Not convinced the WGD numpties are losing any grip on reality they ever had in the first place? How about this from Jumpin Jack Collatin:- " Just think, we are within months of witnessing the BBC shutting up shop in the Scottish stockade, and selling their laptops on eBay. "

      Aye, very good Jack, I am sure Glenn Campbell is updating his CV right now.

  5. This by Robin McAlpine is a depressingly clear analysis of how many of us feel about the promised referendum. Where's the campaign?

    "Had the SNP wanted to go for a plebiscite election it has had plenty of opportunities. Had it wanted to get a firm position on the legal position it could have done so. Were it interested in the business of preparing a prospectus it could easily have done that too. Were it serious about the ‘long process’ of persuading voters, that would have begun in some form.

    Nothing-but-nothing I can see looks like a government or a party gearing up for the biggest fight of its life next year. Even if you squint really hard at what is going on, surely you too must struggle to see the signs you yourself would expect to see. Think of May 2013 which was as far from indyref as we are purportedly from indyref 2 today. Do you see the scale of the difference?"

    1. "Get through the day syndrome" - what Sturgeon has been doing for years. Just how long can she continue to get away with it.

  6. With the mad liar Irish Skier now leading the way as the expert on all things Irish - he's got an Irish granny you know - and an Irish passport you know - the big WGD dug jumps on the band wagon to focus on Ireland. Clearly a ruse to distract from the lack of progress by their idol Sturgeon on naming a date for the Scottish referendum. Will that be a possible excuse - " too much going on in Ireland to have a referendum in Scotland." Is Kirsten Oswald currently putting together a list of potential excuses for Sturgeon to pick from? Whatever happened to the " no referendum until the economic effects of the pandemic have been dealt with." Is this still on Oswald's list? Or has it morphed in to " we can't have a referendum during such a terrible cost of living crisis." There is, of course, the long term favourite " I will not have an illegal referendum."

    Just so many excuses are available when you are a Britnat devolutionalist. Ain't that so John Swinney.

  7. A couple of points re your article.
    1. Mr Kavanagh says some people " have convinced themselves that the SNP doesn't really want a referendum" - no the SNP have convinced me they really do not want independence.

    2. Deliberate confusion by the SNP over when this referendum is supposed to take place. Sometimes as per your article they say in 2023. Other times they say in the latter half of 2023. This affects your countdown clock. Perhaps you need another calculation from 1st July next year.

  8. The WGD Numpties and Double Standards.

    Once again the numpties take great delight in all the Tory MPs and their Rape/sexual assault allegations. They also take great delight in continually raising the allegations of the proven liars ( Sturgeons pals) against Salmond even though he won his two court cases. They choose to ignore any SNP MP/MSPs that allegations are made against if Sturgeon does not call them out ( in other words if they are Sturgeons pals). These numpties care nothing about the morality/ illegality of the offences but are more concerned about whose side they are on. Not a word about groper Grady or his fellow SNP MP Gibson. The nicest thing I can say about these numpties is DOUBLE STANDARDS and they really do not deserve such a kind description.