Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Pro-independence parties on course to win combined 56% share of the vote on the Holyrood list ballot - and Alba are still registering

Today's astonishing Ipsos-Mori / STV poll, which showed 55% support for independence, also had encouraging news for all three of the major pro-independence parties in the Holyrood voting intention numbers...

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 52%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 17%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Greens 3%

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 43%
Conservatives 20%
Labour 15%
Greens 12%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Alba 1%

Seats projection (with changes from May 2021): SNP 68 (+4), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-2), Greens 12 (+4), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

So Alba continue to register in the polls - and it can't be underestimated how important it is for the party to retain that toehold of credibility when it's trying to establish itself and is being starved of media publicity.  The fact that the Greens are so close to matching Labour on the list vote would have been a matter of huge concern for unionists if it had happened five or ten years ago, because it would have opened up the possibility of the main left-of-centre opposition to the SNP being a pro-independence party in the future.  However, that *ought* to be an academic consideration now, assuming the promise of a referendum by the end of 2023 is honoured.

As for the SNP, these numbers suggest they'd improve on May's result markedly in any new election and win an overall majority.  However, as mentioned in the previous post, Ipsos-Mori don't weight by recalled vote, and also overestimated the SNP's support back in the spring.  So it could be that a systemic error simply hasn't been corrected yet.


  1. James, do you have age group figures from a year or so ago? 49% Yes at 55-64 seems a shift from my previous recollections for my age group. Is it?

    1. I've started a website as a data science project that combines polling data from 2014 to now. is the site. It's a work in progress, but 2/3 of the way down you'll find some age related charts.

      To answer your question about the 55-64 age range, there were 4 polls in March 2021, 1 in 2018 and 2 in 2015 with Yes at that level or above.

    2. Thanks for that. So no encouraging signs as we age and rise through the groups.

  2. The Times are calling this an 'outlier'. Well, they would, wouldn't they?

  3. The numpty WGD Hamish 100 thinks you are playing down the yes result in your comments.

    This is the road WGD are going down - the propaganda road - the Britnats play down a good poll for yes and big up a bad poll for yes. The numpties think you should be doing the opposite - namely, big up a good poll for yes and play down a bad poll for yes. They cannot stand you doing objective sensible analysis of polls. They want you to be an out and out propagandist like them.

    1. Let me get this straight - he's accusing *me* of *playing down* the Yes result? On what planet does a blogpost entitled "this rips up everything we thought we knew" constitute "playing down"?

      With the caveat that I haven't read the comment myself, it sounds like he's completely lost the plot.

    2. James, as you said previously you wanted to keep the number of actual quotes to a minimum I do restrict myself in quoting the actual words a lot of the time in my posts.

    3. What great news in the poll for the independence parties!
      I don't understand why 'Independence for Scotland' wrote what s/he did about 'Hamish' on the Wee Ginger Dug blog. 'Hamish' wrote no such thing.
      I don't understand what his/her agenda is.

    4. James, that's the problem with not quoting exact words.

      Iain - "I don't understand what his/her agenda is." - the clue is in the name.

    5. Iain -

      Hamish says " On another web page - you would think they would be pleased but....."

      Hamish subsequently makes it clear the webpage is SGP.

      He also throws in this comment at the end of his post about Salmond

      " Human nature - people don't like hasbeens"

      Hamish, like a lot of the numpties, has posted lots of comments attacking SGP, Alba and Salmond and others in the most derogatory fashion for some time now he deserves no respect and will not get any from me.

    6. Yes, you're right, I just found the comment, it's exactly as you describe. Iain probably overlooked it because it's not on the newest thread. It's scary what's happening over there.

  4. When I carry out my annual clearout of my bookcases most go to charity shops. Some straight in the bin. Mr Kavanaghs will be straight to bin and will definitely be replaced by Grousebeaters new book - Essays.

    I am hoping that next Xmas either Salmond or Murray will have a new book on sale.

    Salmond's could be entitled - "How I took on Nicola's Alphabetties and Won."

    Murray's could be entitled - Telling the Truth (and how I got eight months in jail for doing so)

  5. Not a word from Kavanagh or the WGD numpties btl about Craig Murray being released from prison. He has lost 4 months seeing his baby son grow and change. What miserable mean spirited people they are. They prefer to support people who try to jail independence supporters. Shameful - but par for the course nowadays from WGD.

    If you want to read an articulate and precise analysis of what was wrong with Murray's case read Robin McAlpine's recent article. This type of justice should NEVER be acceptable to anyone but numpties turn a blind eye.

    If you want to read another good and passionate article on Murray's case read Iain Lawsons recent article.

    Some people say Craig Murray's case shames Scotland. I say it shames Sturgeons Scotland and all who don't give a damn about it. That's you numpties.

  6. I will believe Indyref2 is happening when an actual date has been put in to law (and not challenged in court by anyone). Based on Sturgeons previous propensity for multiple false calls anyone with any sense would do the same. Remember she first said she was going to have a referendum in 2017. If this call ends up like the others a place in the Guinness Book of Records must surely follow for the most unused mandates for an independence referendum of any political leader.

    The National seem to be implying their 8 page supplement had something to do with the 55% yes result. Nasty numpty Dr Jim says as soon as Sturgeon turns her attention to independence her superpowers will make independence an inevitability. If both are true then why have they waited all these years?

  7. Just in case Iain pops up and accuses me of making stuff up again about a WGD numpty here is Dr Jim in full flow in all his Sturgeon sycophancy. Only continue to read if you have a strong stomach.

    ".....when FM is able to devote her full time to the campaign I reckon it'll be all over bar the shouting, she's the star attraction, the big kahuna, and when she aims both barrels and starts firing, the enemies of Independence will be dropping left right and centre, including the media, that'll spark the confidence."

    Including the Britnat media Dr Jim - is that right? - what's she going to do this time give the Britnat MSM £10 million of public money while Independence Live struggle with a crowd founder for a few quid.

  8. Iain, I gave you the benefit of the doubt earlier, but if you're going to revert to the type of trolling you've just attempted to post, you'll have to take it elsewhere, I'm afraid.


    When the Scotgov launched this concept I thought great.

    Can any SNP numpties tell me anything the Scotgov is progressing from this assembly report to improve Scotland. Or even just doing anything - actioning any recommendations?

    If they fail to action anything then why waste more public money on more Citizens Assemblies if they are just going to be blanked by the people in power.

    Don't tell me it's another thing impacted by Covid is it? Covid is turning in to a great excuse to not do the things the Scotgov don't want to do but doesn't amazingly stop them doing things they want to do.

  10. I'm no longer an SNP member but I got a St Andrew's Day card from them. Nothing to do with indy, the saltire or the SNP on the front. Just a big photo of Nicola. And a begging note folded inside.
    I want Indy, and so do lots of others, but I reckon, post independence, the SNP will be toast, replaced by whichever new party best espouses centre left, liberal green values. Small l and small g.

    1. Unlike previous photos this one was far to great a close up of Sturgeons face for my liking. The cult of Sturgeon is strong amongst the numpties. A real big brother or is it sister - I'll have to check her preferred pronouns to be sure - is watching you type of photo.

  11. Just like Iain WGD numpty Indyref2yespleasenicola claims I am misrepresenting what the numpties are saying.

    Unfortunately for this numpty immediately above his post is:

    jfngw says: I see the Tories and Alba supporters are in lock step again, their message seems to be 'Do die of ignorance."

    Nasty numpty Dr Jim says in direct reply: You couldn't slip a bank card between the two these days. If Tory Labour and Lib Dem wasn't enough to put up with we have this lot who apparently don't want to stand for or be elected to anything. They just spend their time infesting the internet and comments pages of newspapers slandering lying and attempting to destroy people's confidence.

    Indyref2yespleasenicola I suggest if you really want the independence movement to work together then you first look at your fellow WGD numpties as a starting point and stop falsely claiming I am a Unionist and I am misrepresenting what is posted on WGD.

    How about you start by posting on WGD that you contributed to the recent SGP fundraiser - I assume you did since you claim to value the polling so much. I did twice and I aint that bothered about polls. You since you have now declared your appreciation of SGP you must have done the same surely?

    It is not me who split the independence movement it is the SNP leadership.

  12. The only Indy Party I see above are Alba. The SNP I no longer view as an Indy Party.