SCOT GOES POP / PANELBASE POLL: By a 3-1 margin, the Scottish public think women's sporting events should be reserved for athletes who were born biologically female

As I've gradually published the GRA-related results from the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, one point of debate that has come up a few times is about the number of people who will be directly affected by the introduction of legally-recognised gender self-ID.  If it's a reasonably small number, that could be perceived as helpful for either side of the debate - the gender critical lobby could argue that society shouldn't be turned upside down to suit a tiny minority, while radical trans activists could argue that the impact on society will be so small anyway that the level of resistance being encountered is totally disproportionate (and thus can only be explained by alleged "transphobia").

As was pointed out in the comments section last night, though, there's simply no way of knowing the numbers that will be involved.  The number of people currently diagnosed with gender dysphoria is no guide at all, because the whole point of self-ID is to allow people to change their legal gender without a medical diagnosis. So, in theory, anyone will be eligible to do it provided they make a solemn declaration, and we'll just have to wait and see how big a percentage of the population avail themselves of that opportunity.

There is, however, one area in which self-ID is bound to be a major issue (indeed it already is a major issue), even if the numbers turn out to be miniscule.  And that area is women's sport.  If, for example, there are 100 participants in a women's sporting event, and just one of them grew up as a biological male, there is every chance that person will end up taking a medal or a placing, and that the other competitors will be severely disadvantaged as a result.

There's also, at least theoretically, an opportunity for male athletes to exploit the system to win medals that they otherwise would have no chance of winning.  Maybe they're perennial also-rans in male competitions, or perhaps they were formerly genuine contenders who are now slightly too old to compete with the elite male athletes.  They could think to themselves "aha, if I just self-ID as female, I could find myself on the rostrum".  

Even raising this concern is often dismissed as an example of transphobia, ie. an attempt to suggest that trans people are chancers and cheats.  But the whole point is that the people who would be exploiting the system are not actually trans themselves - they are people who would be posing as trans to gain an advantage.  It's hard to see how it can possibly be transphobic to be concerned about non-trans males seeking to infiltrate women's sport.

Naturally, I wanted a question in the poll about the effect of self-ID on women's sport, and in choosing the wording I was very influenced by a South African expert I saw on the BBC during the Olympics in the summer.  He made the point that even if trans women athletes are required to take testosterone-suppressing medication before being eligible to compete, they still have physical advantages from having gone through puberty as males.  That wasn't to say, he stressed, that trans women should necessarily be barred from competing, because inclusion and equality for the trans community are laudable goals.  But people did need to be aware that inclusion and equality would come at the expense - at least to an extent - of fair competition in women's sporting events, so it really just depended on whether inclusion was seen as more important than sporting fairness, or vice versa.  (I once saw a chap on Twitter claim that his daughters would learn more important life lessons from losing in a sporting event to a trans person than they ever would by winning, which is one interesting argument in favour of inclusion taking precedence over a level playing field.)  That's the dilemma I asked about in the poll.

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (a representative sample of 1001 over-16s in Scotland was interviewed by Panelbase between 20th and 26th October 2021)

Some people argue that, in the interests of inclusion and equality for transgender people, athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be permitted to compete in women's sporting events. Others argue that athletes who were born biologically male should be excluded from women's sporting events, because they would have an unfair advantage over other female athletes and might put other female athletes at greater risk of physical injury.  Which point of view do you find more persuasive?

Athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be permitted to compete in women's sporting events: 19%

Athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be excluded from women's sporting events: 57%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 24%

So another very decisive verdict from the Scottish public, although as with the question about female medical examiners after a sexual assault, it's men who are the most hostile to trans inclusion in women's sport - they break 16% in favour, 65% against.  Women are also strongly opposed, albeit 'only' by a margin of 50% to 22%.

A plurality of every age group is opposed, although there's still a considerable gap between the generations, with 65% of over-55s wanting trans athletes to be excluded from women's events, compared to 46% of under-35s.  As we've seen in other questions from the poll, SNP and Labour voters are a bit more open to trans inclusion than Tory and Lib Dem voters.  The result is closest among SNP voters - 26% of whom are for inclusion, with 49% for exclusion.

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