East Livingston and East Calder by-election result (first preferences):
SNP 42.5% (+1.7)
Conservatives 24.4% (+2.4)
Labour 21.8% (-9.1)
Greens 7.6% (+4.0)
Liberal Democrats 2.7% (-)
Independence for Scotland 1.1% (+1.1)
This will be portrayed as an SNP gain from Labour, although as is often the case in the wacky world of STV by-elections, things are not quite as they seem - the SNP comfortably won the popular vote in the ward last time around. Nevertheless, the result is still dreadful for Labour - their vote share has slumped, and they've dropped from second place to third. The swing from Labour to SNP is a little over 5%, although it must be remembered the baseline for these numbers is the 2017 local elections, when the SNP underperformed expectations somewhat.
Independence for Scotland are continuing to contest by-elections, which presumably means they think they'll have a place in the Scottish party system going forward - which seems unlikely given that Alba's policy programme is so similar to their own. However, they can at least claim that they've achieved a semi-respectable result this time, markedly better than the 0.4% they recorded on their first outing in June.
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They got 47 votes hardly a ringing endorsement
ReplyDeleteThanks for dropping by with your straw man, but I don't recall saying anything about a "ringing endorsement".
DeleteJust interested why the Alba Party didn't stand.
ReplyDeleteNo idea, but maybe they're just catching breath after the Holyrood election and using the time to concentrate on the internal structures of the party.
DeleteTurnout at 25.1% is down 20%. Low turnouts tended to favour Labour and Tories who banked on the more mature voters to turnout for them in the postal votes. Local election tend to be local but it is encouraging that the parties favouring Yes have a combined Yes majority.
ReplyDeleteCue more "never closer to independence" claims from the SNP.
ReplyDeleteLiving and campaigning for the SNP in this area, what did for Labour was the vote for them was largely a personal vote, depleted by the incumbents death; Labour has shot itself in the foot, in that the multiple new estates being built are in the £280,000 and above range - those incomers, by dint of wealth are not a natural Labour constituency; Labour controls the council in a pact with the Tories: what?!; and apart from ourselves, there was no visible presence of any other party during the whole election.
ReplyDelete