I noticed earlier that the Stack Data poll from shortly after the Holyrood election, which showed the independence question tied at 50-50, still hadn't been added to the Wikipedia list of polls. So I've just put that right. The poll was a wide-ranging propaganda survey commissioned by Gordon Brown's anti-independence organisation Our Scottish Future, and the detailed datasets make for fascinating reading. As you'd expect, the questions were framed in a way that maximised the chances of getting the desired results, but there were a number that backfired. Most importantly, there was a question that asked respondents to rate their support or opposition to independence on a scale of 0 to 10, and the results were startlingly different to the standard question...
Friday, June 4, 2021
Drama as it emerges that Gordon Brown's post-election propaganda poll showed a majority for independence - and found that voters don't think they should have to wait "a generation" to get a choice on their own future
In favour of independence (6-10): 55%
Opposed to independence (0-4): 38%
Neutral (5): 8%
With neutrals stripped out, that implies a split of roughly Yes 59%, No 41%. In all honesty that surprises me, because similar polls in the past from Survation have often shown lower support for Yes in this format.
Elsewhere, there's exactly 50% support for holding an independence referendum between now and 2026, with an additional 12% who want one held between 2026 and 2031. Only 18% think there should never be another indyref.
Short shrift is given to the notion that London should call the shots on the terms of a referendum. For example, just 12% think the composition of the electorate should be decided by the UK Government. If combined with a further 27% who think the Scottish and UK Governments should decide the matter jointly, that takes the figure to 39%, but that's still smaller than the 43% who think either the Scottish Parliament or the Scottish Government should decide on its own. There are similar results on the questions of who should choose the date and the legal terms of the referendum.
Perhaps most tellingly of all, the idea that the fabled "generation" should pass before there can be another referendum is rejected by respondents. Only 37% agree with that notion, and 41% disagree.
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I'm pro-indy myself.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19349599.alba-mp-kenny-macaskill-suggests-home-rule-heal-divided-scotland/
Alba MP Kenny MacAskill suggests Home Rule could heal 'divided' Scotland
Evidence is that Scotland is now pro-indy and will not go back, with an iref held next year a guaranteed Yes. The union is just passing away in Scotland with the young no longer British, but Scottish and European.
%Yes decadal trends
Baseline 'Yes tomorrow no matter what!' is ~50% now (up from ~35% in 2011 and 40% in 2014) and Alba are talking about Gordon Broon's 'Home rule'?
Focus on indy please Kenny and Alba, not devo.
Kenny MacAskill's article was clear that he remains in favour of independence.
DeleteThe article was a response to David Martin's previous article and presented an opening to move the Unionists to a negotiated position a bit like Czechia and Slovakia did in the velvet revolution.
When the Queen dies in the next 5 or so years then that will more or less do for the UK.
Most importantly, there was a question that asked respondents to rate their support or opposition to independence on a scale of 0 to 10, and the results were startlingly different to the standard question...
ReplyDeleteThis is because the standard question is asking about a snap referendum held out of the blue 'tomorrow' morning. It's not asking about support for independence generally. People have different timetables here in terms of when they want the vote, so will answer 'No' to the standard question if they would vote Yes next spring, but not tomorrow. It's the correct response to the question.
So the standard Y/N tomorrow Q gives you a value between baseline 'Would always vote yes no matter what' and the upper bound, which depends on events and people's personal timetables. Although as noted in previous posts, the upper bound people tend to move to Yes on the day based on 2014 data. They took us from baseline 40 to 45%.