Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Eve of election polls show Alba's vote holding up - with contradictory signals about the size of the pro-independence majority

So we're deep into the late flurry of polls that always arrive in the last 48 hours of any major election campaign - I expect there'll be more tonight, and perhaps even one or two tomorrow.  There was a touch of panic last night when a Savanta ComRes poll came out with by far the worst showing of the campaign so far for the SNP, but it quickly became clear that the fieldwork was slightly older than yesterday's YouGov poll, which showed the complete opposite - it had the SNP on an absolute majority on the constituency ballot, which if replicated tomorrow would be by far their best result in any Holyrood election.  Today we've also had Survation and Ipsos-Mori polls with more or less the same fieldwork dates as ComRes, and the results are closer to YouGov's.  So, touch wood, it looks like the ComRes poll might just be a very weird - albeit scary - outlier.

Ipsos-Mori (30th April - 3rd May):

Constituency ballot: SNP 50% (-3), Labour 22% (+4), Conservatives 20% (-), Liberal Democrats 6% (-), Greens 2% (-)

Regional list ballot: SNP 39% (+1), Conservatives 23% (+2), Labour 18% (-), Greens 12% (-), Liberal Democrats 4% (-2), Alba 2% (-1)

Survation (30th April - 4th May):

Constituency ballot: SNP 49% (+2), Conservatives 21% (-), Labour 21% (-), Liberal Democrats 8% (-), Greens 1% (+1)

Regional list ballot: SNP 36% (-1), Conservatives 21% (-1), Labour 19% (+1), Greens 10% (-), Liberal Democrats 7% (-), Alba 3% (+1)

Savanta ComRes (30th April - 4th May):

Constituency ballot: SNP 42% (-3), Conservatives 25% (+2), Labour 22% (-1), Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

Regional list ballot: SNP 34% (-2), Conservatives 23% (+1), Labour 19% (-), Greens 9% (-1), Liberal Democrats 6% (+1), Alba 2% (-)

The Ipsos-Mori poll shows a tie on independence, while Survation shows a modest No lead and ComRes shows a suspiciously large No lead for a second time in a row.  That reinforces the impression that something weird is happening with the ComRes sampling - although, admittedly, there's always the possibility that a pollster that is out of step with the others will prove to be the only one that's actually right.  (That's what happened with Survation in 2017.)

As for Alba, they're up in one poll, down in one, and level in the other - which suggests their vote is holding up.  It seems like quite a while ago now that the Alba-haters were breathless with excitement about a single ComRes poll showing the party on 1% - I think they imagined that Alba were on the way out and would soon stop registering in polls completely.  That hasn't happened - it looks like Alba will end the campaign having registered in every single poll, and so far all but one poll has put them in the 2-6% range.  If they're at the upper end of that range on polling day, they could take a decent number of seats.  

I also think Alba may have dodged a bit of a bullet last night.  Another leaders' debate excluding them so close to polling day could have led many voters to overlook them completely, but on this occasion the BBC were shamed into providing an extra prime-time programme with compensatory coverage for parties not in the debate.  I didn't time each interview, but I got the impression that Alex Salmond had about nine minutes or so, which isn't too bad considering that each leader in a five-way 70-minute debate will presumably have had an average of 14 minutes.

The Greens are looking like the independence movement's get out of jail free card - if they really are on 9-12% of the list vote, there's much more leeway if the SNP underperform in the way ComRes are suggesting (although from a psychological point of view, a majority reliant on the Greens is not as good as an SNP-Alba majority, because they're not always perceived as an out-and-out independence party).

One thing I was going to mention a few weeks ago but completely forgot - there was a YouGov poll about the first BBC leaders' debate (the one involving Lorna Slater) and respondents declared Nicola Sturgeon the winner by a country mile.  That'll be a surprise to anyone who watched TV pundits trying to push the narrative that either Anas Sarwar had won or that there was no clear winner.  It seems to me there's a bit of a double standard here - journalists are very eager to treat poll verdicts on leaders' debates as indisputable gospel when it suits them.  For example, the notion that Alistair Darling had defeated Alex Salmond in the first indyref debate was based on a single small poll with a relatively narrow result.  And yet they'll quite happily set aside a much more decisive poll result when it's not what they expected or wanted to hear.

*  *  *

You can catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party's Chris McEleny, HERE.

15 comments:

  1. It's been a weird "campaign" all round, for all the obvious reasons. Will the results be equally weird? For all my years of watching, voting and waiting I'm never felt so nervous about a result.

    Whisky at the ready.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think Savanta/comres and the Scotsman have made a few too many mistakes to be taken seriously .James, do you have any idea what areas of the country Alba may be doing better . I am in Strathkelvin and Bearsden. And would consider giving my list vote to Alba I have no faith in the greens

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. James is probably very busy, Jim.

      I'm biased of course, but vote Alba.

      Delete
    2. If you are in the entrap belt it looks hopeful for the Alba party. I’m not deciding between Alba and Greens until tomorrow in the booth !!!

      Delete
  3. Are they allowed to publish polls on election Day? I would have thought it was under purdah or whatever the term is.

    Greens and alba will take indy to majority but think it'll be close.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They can published but cannot be reported on radio or television from 7 am to 10 pm.

      Delete
  4. My current PoP.

    Const:
    49% SNP
    22% Con
    20% Lab
    7% Lib
    3% Oth

    List:
    39% SNP
    22% Con
    17% Lab
    10% Grn
    6% Lib
    3% Alb
    3% Oth

    Seats (change on 2016):
    65(+2) SNP
    29(-2) Con
    19(-5) Lab
    11(+5) Grn
    5(nc) Lib

    Of course predictors don't give Alba a seat as the share is assumed as national.

    This remains possible in some regions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would be amusing if Rennie loses his constituency seat and fails to win on the list.

      Delete
    2. "Amusing" is a very mild word.

      Delete
    3. I hope Rennie, DRoss, and Sarwar ALL LOSE THEIR SEATS ...now that would be better than amusing 😆😅😂🤣🤣🤣

      Delete
  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Replies
    1. No exit poll according to John Curtice.

      Delete
  7. Whether the SNP get 65 or 64 seats looks so tight! It’s actually quite amazing how little numbers may change from 2016.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Lean tossup has it at 79 independence seats . 63 SNP, 13 Green ( might be 15 , I can't remember) 3 for Alba . BBC and SKY will spin it as an endorsement of Boris the hog head effer.

    ReplyDelete