Sunday, May 2, 2021

Drama as Alba storm to their best result so far in a non-Panelbase poll - and pro-independence parties are on course for 61% of the seats

Details of the BMG poll have now been released, and they pretty much tick every box.  The SNP are above their 2016 level of support in the constituency ballot, and they're on course for an overall majority.  Pro-indy parties are projected to be winning a huge majority in combination.  Alba are above 3% for the first time in a non-Panelbase poll, and are also projected to win seats for the first time in a non-Panelbase poll.  And both the Tories and Labour are on course for significant seat losses.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (BMG / Herald):

SNP 49% (+1)
Labour 21% (+1)
Conservatives 19% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 37% (-5)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Labour 17% (-)
Greens 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Alba 4% (+4)

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 68 (+5), Conservatives 25 (-6), Labour 18 (-6), Greens 9 (+3), Liberal Democrats 7 (+2), Alba 2 (+2)

SNP: 68 seats
All others: 61 seats


Pro-independence parties: 79 seats (61.2%)
Anti-independence parties: 50 seats (38.8%)


The independence numbers are confirmed as Yes 50%, No 50%, which means the little run of six No-majority polls has been well and truly broken.  Of the two newest polls, one has Yes ahead and the other has Yes level.


  1. Excellent polling results for all three Yes parties.

    It does seem that, since 2014, just as predicted, baseline Yes has climbed and is now ~50%. It will continue on this trajectory naturally, with boosts from events such as brexit. While the latter may rise and fall, the baseline is what will take us to indy.

    However, you can see why Sturgeon is cautious; what if baseline is 49.5%? If Yes is effectively guaranteed in a year or so based on detailed internal polling, with folks wanting to see the country somewhat back on its feet after the pandemic, then why rush headlong? Surely it's also better to e.g. get quiet negotiations done with Europe too first? Of course Europe would not consider such negotiations while the UK was a member, and likewise it would not do so unless it was clear Scots wanted and planned to vote for indy. But it does look like we are heading for that now. Europe / the US will watch this election, Scotland, and Northern Ireland closely.

    Of course those against indy want a referendum as soon as possible for this very reason (a few years ago ideally - bloody SNP for not doing that!); it is their only hope of winning. That or make the election a plebiscite for indy while Yes party votes could still fall short of 50% on the PR list; that happens and since the people said 'No', then no need for an indyref... Another 5 years of union secured!

    These people will lie and say 'But look they are holding an election so can hold a referendum!' while failing to mention the SNP are not holding an election at all. They haven't called an election; the law has called one to ensure democracy. The SNP cannot stop this election; not unless they could justify it to the courts as an extreme emergency. It's Schrodinger's SNP - one moment they want to stay in power forever, the next they're enthusiastically organising elections that they might lose!

    The referendum date is of the Scottish government's choosing by contrast, and the public are saying 'haud oan a wee bit with that until the country emerges from this pandemic sh*te'. It's not really about the ability to cast a vote either, but everything that such a significant constitutional change means for the society and the economy. I personally want to attend massive street rallies and parties afterwards. I can wait a few more months.

    Of course armchair English mansplaining gammons who are now experts in Scottish public health, law and socio-economics will tell you otherwise while advocating a vote for unionist candidates in the coming election. But then they don't talk to the average Scot as they're 400 miles away in Tory Englandshire. They just talk to ahem, 'independence supporters' and MI5 employees that hate pro-indy parties and advocate a vote for unionists...

  2. I might be asking for the moon here, but is there an understanding of how and where Alba might breach 6-7%?

  3. Any idea what the regions are that deliver the Alba seats?

  4. Some inadvertent wise words from a right-wing hypocrite in the southern English Tory shires.

    There are even a small handful of seats where there’s a legitimate argument for indy supporters voting for Unionist parties.

    You can’t vote for evil and then wash your hands of responsibility for what evil does

    Said within the same breath too.

    Worth keeping in mind on voting day.

  5. Voting Alba in the majority of list regions now proved as the positive move it always was.

  6. I wonder how low the greens would be if they did not have a huge influx of SNP supporters falling for the give your list vote to greens. I suspect that they would be neck and neck with Alba

    I noticed when looking through all the polling data that the only parties who successfully convince supporters of other parties . To vote for them often at cost to their own party are the greens and Tories.

  7. If I was a unionist from the south of England, I'd strongly argue for the election to be an indy plebiscite while suggesting independence voters vote for unionists in some seats to remove key SNP figures and ensure the % for Yes parties is less than 50%.

    1. There are lots of Unionists on Wings these last few months suggesting exactly that - it looks like the new training ground for the 77th Brigade

    2. Why?
      Why would a nationalist do that?
      Makes absolutely no sense

    3. Exactly napper. An indy supporter wouldn't do that.

  8. Following this:

    Accordingly, if the Scottish National Party should secure more than 50% of the constituency votes in this election, we will consider that a clear mandate to withdraw from the Treaty Of Union

    This was so very predictable:

    There are even a small handful of seats where there’s a legitimate argument for indy supporters voting for Unionist parties.

    So that support for Yes parties is less than 50%....

    1. Surely the first is from a hypothetical manifesto, and the second is on the basis of the SNP manifesto as it stands?

    2. So he'd be endorsing a vote for sturgeon and pals if the former had come about?

      That I find very difficult to believe.

      I predicted a while back he would endorse a vote for unionists just like he has. You don't join with the tories in attempting to take down the (innocent) snp fm if you are keen on indy.

      In iref2, we can expect him to suggest yes voters abstain or vote no to stop a 'dangerous evil' scotland led by parties scots voted for (eg snp greens...), and folks should 'get out (to safe england) while they still can'.

      I think he's stopped short of directly calling yes parties 'nazis / Natsis' as that would be just a bit too obvious.

      Note that making the constituency vote a plebiscite for outright indy would have likely ensured a No at this stage and ensured 5 years more of his well funded life in british Bath. It was certainly the favoured unionist option, hence he was so keen.

    3. You don't have talk shite, skier, with your SNP Central talking points clogging up this blog. You are so obsessed with the Rev, clearly he hits a nerve with the Nikla apparatchiks.
      Of course you misrepresent hime with selective quotes, in your unceasing campaign to tell people what to think, in case they agree with the Rev's diagnosis of how the SNP has become a cult organisation with little attachment to independence, except when they want people's votes.
      Sturgeon has had seven years to prepare her arguments, set out a vision, for independence, yet she couldn't answer simple questions on R4 last week and sounded incoherent and confuses. As usual, she wants to kick the whole thing into the long grass with a myriad of excuses we are tediously familiar with.
      All she wants is power, without responsibility, and all the trappings. All her failings are faults to be laid at others' doors, while she poses as the Queen of Scotland. Her record is deplorable, but is masked by her carefully constructed PR. She is a fraud.
      The Rev is right on one thing, the SNP are not serious about independence, while they retain absolute power in Holyrood.
      Alba, in a short time, have made more coherent and detailed arguments for independence than she has made in seven years. No wonder she is paranoid and resentful of them, not to mention her personal vendetta.
      A second vote for the SNP is wasted, everybody knows that. Vote Alba in the regional list, and hope they can hold this despotic bunch of skivers to account. We need an opposition who are serious about independence. Not your drivel straight from the SNP high command.

    4. I'm nobody's apparachik. The poster in my window has all 3 yes party logos on it.

      Unlike Campbell, I don't endorse a vote for unionists / the union, nor want the % for yes parties to be reduced, weakening the indy mandate, as he argues for.

  9. Really enjoying your blog this election James

    here was the text of my complaint to the BBC the other day - much good it will do


    Gross Bias in the election debates Scotland/Wales 

    Tonight the BBC allowed a party with no elected representitives and polling less than 4% to appear on the leaders debate in Wales

    This party wants to abolish the Welsh Assembly

    BUT the BBC is refusing to let Alba onto Scottish leaders debates even though it is polling at 6% has 2 MP's and 11 Councillors

    Alba wants an independent Scotland

    The BBC is displaying its gross bias on all matters related to English Nationalism, hostility to devolution and opposition to the independence of the devolved nations - especially Scotland

  10. While the headlines numbers here look pretty good for the SNP on the constituency vote I think they will struggle to get their support out to vote so uninspired has their campaign been

    1. I'm not sure any parties have had an "inspired campaign" so presumably they should all be struggling to get their support out to vote.

    2. Recent polling last week , think it was Ashcroft, suggested that SNP supporters are most likely to get out and vote for their party. Was 93 % with Tories at 87% so I think that's incorrect

  11. Ok, finally decided that this will go in the windae as we approach voting day.

    Alba voters have James to thank because honestly, some really are doing their best to put folk off Alba.

    But then they're probably unionists.

    In my heart I feel a good day is coming. Southern English right wing blogs trying to get folks to vote unionists supports this. Desperate stuff.

  12. I know this will upset the "polling experts" but I simply do not believe the Green surge or the ALBA drag. However the debate can wait until Saturday but if the polling data is wildly out how can it ever be trusted.

    I am becoming convinced that Polling is being used to influence voters not to reflect their intention

  13. It's a polling result that gives political representation that doesn't represent people's views on Scottish independence.

    1. Why are you as a unionist voting Green, then?