Saturday, May 1, 2021

Does the BMG poll show Yes on 50%?

I've just seen the front page of tomorrow's Herald on Sunday, and it appears that a BMG poll shows a 50-50 split on independence.  Hopefully that means literally 50-50, because that will bring the little run of No majorities to an end.  Although the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll showed Yes just fractionally behind and was far better for us than the ComRes poll, I was in two minds about whether to give our unionist friends the chance to crow about "six in a row", but it seems that they'll only have had two short days to enjoy that.

This obviously further increases the chances that the ComRes poll may have been an outlier caused by random sampling variation.  More details when I have them.

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