One of the most active anti-Alba propagandists on social media was telling people yesterday that they shouldn't even dream of voting for any party if it was below 6% in the opinion polls - the implication being that Alba would have no chance of winning any seats in that scenario. But is that really true? In a word, no. Since the Scottish Parliament was established, there have been no fewer than seven occasions when a party has won at least one list seat with less than 6% of the national list vote -
In 1999, the Greens won 3.6% of the vote and one list seat.
In 1999, the SSP won 2.0% of the vote and one list seat.
In 2003, the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won 1.5% of the vote and one list seat.
In 2007, the Greens won 4.0% of the vote and two list seats.
In 2011, the Liberal Democrats won 5.2% of the vote and three list seats (and it would have been more if they hadn't won constituency seats).
In 2011, the Greens won 4.4% of the vote and two list seats.
In 2016, the Liberal Democrats won 5.2% of the vote and one list seat (and it would have been more if they hadn't won constituency seats).
But, you might wonder, were all of the above parties just very lucky? In one or two cases maybe, but for the most part no. Let's now look at all of the examples of parties that won more than 1% of the national list vote without winning any seats. As you can see, not a single one had 3% of the vote or more.
In 1999, the Socialist Labour Party won 2.4% of the vote and no seats.
In 2003, the Pensioners Party won 1.5% of the vote and no seats.
In 2003, the Socialist Labour Party won 1.1% of the vote and no seats.
In 2007, the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won 1.9% of the vote and no seats.
In 2007, Solidarity won 1.5% of the vote and no seats.
In 2007, the Scottish Christian Party won 1.3% of the vote and no seats.
In 2007, the BNP won 1.2% of the vote and no seats.
In 2011, the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won 1.7% of the vote and no list seats.
In 2016, UKIP won 2.0% of the vote and no seats.
So with Alba at 3% in yesterday's Survation poll, and with the majority of polls so far showing them on 3% or higher, it would be a very brave (ie. misleading) call to say that they have no chance whatever of seats.
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I mentioned my interview on IndyLive Radio the other day - you can now listen to it at your leisure HERE, or via the embedded player below. Our unionist friends love to sneer at things like IndyLive Radio, but I listened to their interview with John Curtice from the same show, and it was incredibly in-depth. You'd have learnt more from that than from three months of listening to Good Morning Scotland.
Your link for mid Scotland and Fife profile takes you to Central Scotland?
ReplyDeleteThey're both on the same page - scroll down for Mid-Scotland and Fifem
DeleteExtremely useful post, especially given all the anti-Alba nonsense out there, thanks for putting it together
ReplyDeleteAnd there's Margo, who was technically a party of 1!
ReplyDeleteOn 3% the somewhat fantastical 'Alba supermajority' looks oot the windae (was kindae a long shot!), but seat or two, maybe even three, certainly isn't. I think for the mental health of some Alba voters alone this would be good :-)
However, to use Alba's language, there will also be a lot of 'wasted' votes for them in some regions which could have maybe helped get another Green/SNP MSP elected. Assuming folks had voted tactically for Alba that is (rather than with their heart).
I think an apolitical 'Yes Scotland' party had merit for such an approach to the list, i.e. a movement solely focused on indy, but it should have been started a year ago with someone less controversial at the helm. Alba has ended up too niche and narrow identity politics driven, particularly on GRA. That and like it or not, Salmond's just not very popular these days; he should have stuck to being a candidate IMO, but not leader.
Any majority with Graham in is a supermajority.
ReplyDeleteThis was so very predictable. Wings backing a vote for unionist parties and attacking Salmond's advice (who says the SNP are best placed to lead Scotland to indy).
ReplyDeleteI've said for ages he doesn't support indy. I think of we ever were allowed to see the wings accounts it would be very revealing where the funding's coming from.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/traitors-gate/#more-129528
If the SNP win an absolute majority on their own in next month’s election, it will be the end of independence...
...If we lived in Scotland – and to be truthful we’re increasingly glad we don’t...
...There are even a small handful of seats where there’s a legitimate argument for indy supporters voting for Unionist parties.
30 years in England through free choice. He can't stand Scotland; an aspiring right-wing Englishman.
One thing's for sure: you can't rely on the current SNP leadership alone to deliver independence. Nicola Sturgeon's party is a party of devolution. Any SNP manifesto "promise" on independence should be taken with a massive bucket of salt, or quicklime. Like the SNP the Greens have other priorities in mind.
ReplyDeleteIf no Alba MSPs are elected Nicola Sturgeon will happily kick independence into the longest grass this side of Govan.
Yet voting SNP in the constituency is, paradoxically, one of the best ways of voting in Alba representatives on the List.
Clothes pegs on for the constituency vote.
SNP/ALBA in the NE.
Very informative article, by the way, James.
ReplyDeleteIts telling for me that the SNP activists never talk about why people should vote SNP, its only about why people are traitors if thet vote Alba.
ReplyDeleteChristine Grahame, Joan McAlpine, me and half of Scots voters are unquestionably evil apparently.
ReplyDeleteAccording to right-wing anti-independence English blogs anyway.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/traitors-gate/
"The current SNP is unquestionably an entity of evil."
Sorry, but this person definitely doesn't support independence. Stop kidding yourself folks if you still think he does. This is a hardcore English/British unionist who's good at hiding in plain sight.
I know what evil is, and it's not trans people. Nor is it the SNP, Greens or Alba. Nor even is it Labour / Libs and, dare I say it, most Scots Tories who are generally just mostly greedy / selfish at worst.
But hey, you can always move to England where the fluffy friendly Tories are in charge mass deport black people and talk about 'piling up the bodies'. Cause Scotland is so evil you know, like Norway, Ireland, Malta and Denmark are for example. You wouldn't want to be like them would you? Evil independent successful northern European countries.
Alba blundered by not getting a slogan next to ALBA on the ballot paper IMO.
ReplyDeleteI realise they submitted a late application but they missed the deadline to add a party message.
Even not having "party" after ALBA was a bit strange, though if folk are determined to vote for them I don't think it'll make a lot of difference.
Having said that it could be an advantage for ALBA to be alphabetically near the top of a very long list of parties/independents.
If Alba's doing 3% nationally, that's an irrelevance. What matters is its per-region list vote which may be less, but could conceivably be a lot more than 3%.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the way successive d'Hondt divisions work out, you need something like 6% in a given region to win a seat. That's how come the SNP got list seats in the Borders.
Are there any statistics that show Alba is particularly strong or weak in a given region?
There's a decent summary of the smaller parties here:
ReplyDeletehttps://tinyurl.com/wee-parties
Just had some blurb in from the Scottish Family Party. Bit scary - they seem to be advocating The Handmaid's Tale as the way to go..
I am extremely confident that the majority of Independence List seats will come from the Scottish Greens.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore this will take many less votes (fewer people) than the number voting SNP 2.
This is our insurance if SNP don't get a majority on the first vote.
Why don't you join in the most successful way to contribute to maximise the independence seats?
Good Luck and don't forget to Vote.
SNP 1 and Greens 2.