I appreciate that feelings are running high as a result of the large number of defections from the SNP to Alba, but the trolling has now got completely out of hand (and there was more nastiness in my inbox this morning). People are welcome to post comments either in support or opposition to Alba, but there does need to be some ground rules. Please note that the following types of comment are likely to be deleted -
* Misrepresentations of my own position or attempts to put words in my mouth.
* Claims that I have failed to answer questions that I have, in fact, answered. (For instance, someone is repeatedly trying to make out that I evaded a question about whether I want a minority government.)
* Bogus claims that my support for Alba makes me a "bigot", a "transphobe", a "conservative", "far right", etc, etc.
* Potentially defamatory claims about Alba politicians. I am aware of no evidence to support claims that Alex Salmond is a "sex pest" or that Neale Hanvey is an "anti-Semite", so if you want to say that sort of thing, try your luck elsewhere.
* Attempts to lecture me on what I can and can't blog about, for example the old favourite "stick to the polling James".
* Misrepresentations of how the voting system works. (And although I'm not deleting comments simply for using the "1&2" shorthand, I wish to God people would stop doing that, because it could inadvertantly cause spoilt ballots.)
* Any variant on "why was my comment deleted?" or "have the decency to explain why my comment was deleted James".
* Any other miscellaneous attempt to waste my time.
* * *
I have two more constituency previews in today's edition of The National - Glasgow Southside and Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn.
Why hasn't my comment been deleted yet James??
ReplyDeleteThere seem to a load of SNP 1 and 2 trolls on the loose. It seems that if one wishes to help increase the number of Independence supporting MSPs by voting Alba or Green for the List, then one is a Tory.
ReplyDeleteGiven the final lack of widespread defections (~1.6% of elected reps), I think things will calm down now.
ReplyDeleteSNP folks of course would feel a bit panicked and aggrieved at people they'd donated to and campaigned for over many years upping sticks with their cash and vote (they can't get the latter back either without a by-election).
Of course it did serve to highlight the level of 'division' in the SNP and clear this out. Turns out it wasn't a lot, but I generally felt that to be the case. Media have always liked to pick out small groups of vocal dissidents as a 'mass split a horrifically divided party', particularly when it comes to the SNP.
Anyway, can Alba please focus on chasing No voters just like the SNP are Greens are doing? Let's not spend the next few weeks trying to steal votes of each other by misleading people about the voting system. We won't win indy by Yes voters angrily telling other Yes voters to vote for this or that Yes party.
Eyes on the prize folks.
"Given the final lack of widespread defections"
DeleteNice try at saying that with a straight face, but come off it. In percentage terms the only new party that attracted more defections than this is the SDP. (In recent decades, anyway.)
1.6% is not a lot of defections James; it certainly in no way constitutes any sort of major split. The SNP has surely lost more reps to stepping down scandals and by election loses (genuine and STV related)?
DeleteIf you want to take a decent share of the SNP Holyrood vote, you want to take decent share of their MSPs by defection. That's how you bring folk over; the popular figures take their loyal voters. It's how defectors like Margo that go independent get back in; they don't grab other people's votes, they get in on the same voters that elected them before.
Delete"1.6% is not a lot of defections James"
DeleteIt is. It's a very significant number of defections, and it's fatuous to pretend otherwise (although by God you're trying anyway).
Did 28 labour mps not defect to the sdp? That would be the equivalent of 6 or more sitting SNP msps defecting from the snp. That would be a significant defection.
Delete1.6% is not a lot that means 98.4% are still with the SNP I can see why people feel they need and think that the SNP are stalling over having another referendum but I can see why too. Sorry but I agree with Scottish Skier on this one.
DeleteThe defections may be over for the time being but don't think that everything is now rosy within the SNP. The unhappiness with the leadership and the direction of the party went a lot deeper than 1.6% of the elected representatives and whatever fraction of the membership have defected.
DeleteI suspect many will be biding their time until the election is over before attempting to "fix the party from within". Success of Alba will strengthen the hand of such reformers, if only because they will have somewhere to go.
I really have a hard time with the terminology "defections". It indicates that the person has suddenly turned traitor. In fact, almost all if not all of those joining ALBA are going to VOTE for the SNP in the constituency. The actions of those joining ALBA are not to harm the SNP but to try to maximize the independence supporting MSPs in Parliament. While I totally disagree with their premise and feel that that it risks a lot for little gain, and as a person who will be voting SNP on both constituency and regional, I am not going to label fellow YES supporters as "defectors" or worse. That is the language of the Yoons and has no place in the YES movement. Scotland needs all of us to deliver independence and these nasty spats only work to help the Yoons. We may differ on tactics but the goal is the same. Let us remember that.
Delete"Did 28 labour mps not defect to the sdp?"
DeleteJeez, did you even read what I said? Here it is again: "the only new party that attracted more defections than this is the SDP".
The SDP is a salutary example of the myth of "personal" votes and breaking through. At one point I seem to remember they were leading in the polls. In 1983 they got 6 seats and in 1987 they got 5. Of course that was under FPTP, under a more proportional system they might have got more, as they polled around 10%. And there are examples of the myth of personal votes in Scotland and "break through" parties too.
DeleteWe shall see. I just hope an Indy majority isn't lost, otherwise I think I'll have to emigrate somewhere warm with cheap wine.
Very sorry to hear about the trolls James.
ReplyDeleteI do hope though, that if Alba list polling intensions indicate less than 3% or 4% that you come back to support Both Votes SNP
Ally
I addressed that point the other day. The more viable course of action in that scenario would be to build the Alba party up and thus ensure those votes don't go to waste.
DeleteKeep up the good work, James. Interesting times need clear-headed websites like this one.
ReplyDeleteWell said.
ReplyDeleteThere are similar comments being posted on The National when it is suggested that there might be an alternative to the SNP only / Section 30 route to Independence.
It seems that when you deviate one iota from "Both Votes SNP" or "The SNP top brass have a very secret & cunning plan" there is a pile-on from the Nicola Loyal & True Brigade.
I wouldn't mind if there was a rational but mostly it is just ranting.
No, it's more to do with the fact that UDI is found to be quite shocking to soft no's and soft year's, if you got out of your bubble you might realise this.
DeleteIn 2016 the SNP [and Greens] got no regional List MSPs from the NE of Scotland.
ReplyDeleteI'll be voting Alba in the regional List vote in the NE in May.
Greens were pretty close, though: a 0.6% swing in the region from the Lib Dems would have got them in at the expense of Mike Rumbles.
DeleteThere will not be a section order. The West minster Government has already passed a SNP motion that THE SCOTTISH PEOPLE ARE SOVEREIGN. check it out on Hansard.
ReplyDeleteNo, the Westminster parliament passed it, not the government. And that was only because most unionist MPs were not in the chamber to vote.
DeleteThe motion has no legal standing anyway.
Just did a Panelbase poll. Asked for independence and Holyrood voting intention, with "The Alba Party (led by Alex Salmond)" as a choice in the regional vote question. Also questions about timing of a second referendum and what outcomes would justify one, whether Alex Salmond is "a fit person to stand for election" and who is more trustworthy (Salmond vs Sturgeon, Sturgeon vs Johnson, Salmond vs Johnson). Also a bunch of supplemental questions about transwomen, which make me think that this is at least in part a Wings-commissioned poll.
ReplyDeleteI assume the leaders of all parties on the list were named in the same format? If not, useless poll.
DeleteDefinitely needs 'the Scottish national party / SNP' (led by nicola sturgeon) etc for shares to be comparable.
DeleteIt's pretty likely that the question was asked that way because that's what the client requested. It's not at all surprising that the first priority for anyone commissioning a poll at the moment is to find out how Alba are performing.
DeleteYes, but it is unlikely to give a reliable result unless all parties are presented in a similar way. Adding leader names is not necessarily an issue, but only adding the leader of one party on the list options would be.
DeleteAlso, will leaders names be on the regional ballot? If not, such an approach is questionable in terms of how well it will predict things.
The SDP had major political differences with Labour. Salmond seeks to play the system to deliver more YES votes and we haven't seen their manifesto yet.
ReplyDeleteIf the new party wants a quicker Indyref they'll stand accused on all sides of being reckless with Covid which is still killing the voters.
I don't know whether this is gaming the regional list or not as every vote belongs to an individual voter.
I've only met one local SNP member thinking of backing Salmond's party, although he says he'll still remain an SNP Member.
Would be a good idea all round if the 30% of Labour voters who back indy were targeted by ALBA.
I seem to remember that Margo got crossover votes in Lothian as an independent.
Playing the system doesn't deliver more yes votes though of course. That's not possible under list PR.
DeleteFor your next polling exercise James, I hope that you dig down into Brexit to find out whether voters are moving to independence because of the complete shambles in our food exporting.
ReplyDeleteThanks for writing this James. It's very needed. The sheer amount of vitriolic abuse over the past few days has been horrific, from both sides. It feels bizarrely like that we suffered in 2014, except this time from people supposedly on the pro-independence side. For those of us who've been in the SNP over the past few years, sadly the anti-Alba stuff is all too familiar though, especially the TERF, right winger crap.
ReplyDeleteI left the party last year and have been politically homeless ever since, though would never want to abuse for campaign against the party or anyone in it. But I was at the point I was considering not voting this year for the first time ever. Alba has reinvigorated the debate and brought it back to independence now, and that can only be a good thing. As a result, I'll go out enthusiastically again and vote SNP1 / Alba2.
I can't understand why so many in the SNP see this as a bad thing - Alba will help both their vote and the pro-independence vote. I can only imagine many of the most abusive are staffers (that certainly seemed to be the case with abuse while a member of the party) who fear for their jobs if the party implodes. But Alba isn't going to do that to the SNP: it will strengthen it if anything.
As for defections, I doubt we've seen the last. It was only people standing for Holyrood who had to declare by yesterday. One great thing Alba will do is give strength to people in the SNP who were too afraid to speak out over the past few years - the atmosphere in the party really has been toxic, especially for women. So it may be that there are people still in the party the SNP need to really listen to now if they want to keep them. The threat they we're under before of being kicked, or bullied, out the party is much reduced by the ability to defect to another party. If the SNP carry on down the line that they're delighted to lose anyone that challenges policy or leadership, well they'll be happy to lose a few more, right?
A new pro indy list party is the best thing that could happen for independence, so let's work together, stop abusing each other, and put independence first. SNP1 / Alba, Green or SNP 2 (dependent on which region your in): it's not hard.
Fergie, maybe you can answer this question, as god knows nobody else wants to go near it for some reason. 'If Alba get a handful of MSPs elected to Holyrood, what will they actually do to bring about a referendum which is legal and internationally recognised, sooner than the 2.5 year time frame suggested by the SNP?
DeleteI don't know. But I'm damn sure Alex Salmond, Kenny MacAskill, Joanna Cherry and others behind the scenes do. And that's the real prize of having a new pro Independence Party as the main opposition, rather than unionist ones.
DeleteIt would change everything: the make up, the optics, the way FMQs works and the media reports it. The SNP are the Scottish Government, which is great in many ways. But you can't be both the government and a campaigning opposition. Currently all opposition is framed by anti-independence parties - three of them attacking the FM, the media reporting her as "under attack". A pro independence opposition party opens up the possibilities endlessly to explore other options.
Obviously anyone planning to defect but is going to lie their way into a seat before doing so, defrauding activists / donators of time and cash, is not fit for office.
DeleteThis is not how you create unity, nor how you treat the electorate / democracy.
Standing for Alba is all fine and well if you openly do so, but getting on an SNP ticket then doing so would be an awful thing to do. Defectors post election should stand down and trigger a by-election or let the next SNP candidate on the list take their seat.
This is why I am unhappy with those who have left the SNP but kept their SNP funded / rosetted seats. It's fraud and anti-democratic not to seek a new mandate for your new party.
DeleteI'd be fuming if Grahame did that. If she stepped down and asked for my vote again, I'd seriously consider it.
I meant there may be more councillors and MPs who might shift over but if they're not standing for HR, wouldn't need to declare that yet. The SNP would be wise to try and keep them, imo. But given their reaction to those leaving so far has been "we're glad to be rid of them" there might be more they're happy to lose.
DeleteThey can stand in the future in an Alba ticket or step down and trigger a by-election. I'm sure Alba voters would be really unhappy if any Alba candidates elected in May promptly defect to the SNP for example.
DeleteMy own opinion is if you want to defect, the morally / democratically correct thing to do is to step down and ask for a new mandate. It's bit different if you have the whip removed or go even go independent, but joining a rival party takes away your electoral mandate.
If UKIP's Douglass Carswell has the honor to do that, so can Yes politicians of any party.
'If Alba get a handful of MSPs elected to Holyrood, what will they actually do to bring about a referendum which is legal and internationally recognised, sooner than the 2.5 year time frame suggested by the SNP?'
DeleteYou may not have noticed, but Alba isn't a referendum party. It's a plebiscite party. It's not going there to hold the SNP's feet to the fire.
It's going there to light a fire under Westminster's feet.
Can’t wait to see the next opinion poll, what will Alba score?
ReplyDeleteFrom reports so far, I'm concerned we won't get reliable results.
DeleteOh? What have I missed? I guess no poll is ever truly reliable and rarely matches with election results.
DeleteA new poll. Commissioned by D C Thomson for their two daily papers.
ReplyDeleteScottish parliament voting intention(s):
Constituency:
SNP: 49% (-1)
CON: 21% (-)
LAB: 20% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
List:
SNP: 37% (-2)
LAB: 19% (-1)
CON: 18% (-1)
GRN: 11% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
ALBA: 3% (+3)
via
@Survation
Chgs. w/ 18 Mar
Context, including favourability of leaders: https://archive.is/nfHUs
DeleteThe Courier's spin on their poll.
Deletehttps://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2094895/its-all-over-for-salmond-exclusive-polling-puts-alba-party-on-3/?utm_source=twitter
Seems a tad early to call what will happen. Regardless of which camp anyone is in.
Delete''The Survation poll, carried out exclusively for DC Thomson, found the former first minister’s pro-independence party, Alba Party, to be seriously lagging behind the other major parties – with only 3% of Scots saying they would offer support at the ballot box.''
DeleteSeems the Yoons fear AS more than NS. Says it all really!
DeleteNaturally perhaps we're all focusing on the 3%, but look both Labour and Tory below 20% in regions... that is GOOD NEWS.
DeleteI feel pretty neutral towards Alba. Think I will stick with the SNP but others can do as the spirit moves them. I would say that there had been some serious vitriol thrown at the SNP and Nicola by posters here and on Wings for months now. Hardly conducive to attracting SNP voters to lend their vote on the list.
ReplyDeleteOf course it may be the intent of some of these people is to sow discord rather than promote ndependence. It is sometimes hard to determine the overly passionate from the Tory/Unionist concern troll.
On numbers what I can say is that as of this Monday (zoom branch meeting) our branch had gone up by 12% over the last couple of months suggesting to me that the membership increase is real. I don't know the national membership but each branch knows its own tally (by name) on a monthly update basis. So although Alba have attracted members both from the SNP and new members, both parties are speaking to a constituency in the Yes ranks and are attracting people. This is good.
This may mean that the SNP leadership have an easier time with fewer awkward squad members but I'm not so sure that is a good thing. Variety is the spice of life.
ReplyDeleteWorth taking a look at.
https://whatscotlandthinks.org/poll/survation-30-3-2021/