However, the paradox is that by trying to kill the Alba Party, they're already demonstrating the value of the Alba Party, because they're having to put themselves in the mind of a potential Alba voter and work out what could deter that person - and of course the answer to that will always be bound up with prioritising independence and making an independence referendum happen. The SNP having to compete for votes with a credible party that is actually stronger on independence than they are themselves changes the dynamic completely. It's sometimes said that Labour turned itself into the SDP to defeat the SDP, and if the same effect happens in this case, the SNP will have recovered its soul and its core purpose.
* * *
I was quoted about the new party yesterday in an article for Al Jazeera by Alasdair Soussi - you can read it HERE. I've also written two more constituency previews for today's edition of The National - Edinburgh Northern & Leith and Edinburgh Pentlands. (I can't find an online link for the latter, but it's in the print/digital edition.)
The right way for the SNP to confront Alba:
ReplyDeleteReaffirm their position as the vanguard of Scottish independence. Make the case for indy, talk about the issues: currency, Europe, covid recovery as an independent nation. Build on this momentum. Seize the moment they’re forever telling us we’re in.
The wrong way for the SNP to confront Alba:
Sling mud at Salmond and whoever joins him. Get hysterical. Double down on identity wars. Turn squeamish on indy. Cringe cringe cringe!
Entirely up to them. Scotland’s watching!
DeleteThe SNP arent listening to you John. At least not today.
DeleteYou are not taking into account the anger felt towards Salmond now. Alba will not win any seats a mere blip here today gone tomorrow lot. Who is funding them?
ReplyDeleteYou know, Alba's critics can't have it both ways. They can't mock it as a ramshackle operation and then demand to know which Saudi prince the billions have come from.
DeleteWho is funding Alba? I am; just sent them my monthly SNP tenner.
DeleteMake sure you can get a refund when your purchase fails before the guarantee is up.
DeleteThe anger felt by whom?
DeleteConspirators and perjurers?
Comfy slippered pension collectors?
MI5 operatives and eyebrow raisers?
Science denying deviants and recipients of awards named for child abusers?
Name names, if you have them.
Anybody saying Alba won't win any seats demonstrates a lack of understanding of our voting system.
DeleteAnyone saying Alba will win seats can furnish us all with the next lottery numbers. :-)
DeleteWe will see in time in polling. Polling that doesn't mention Salmond but just fairly includes Alba along with 'others' on the initial prompt.
Let's be honest. The SNP and Alba party are political rivals. There is a real possibility that the Alba party may negate an SNP majority. Unionist media will successfully argue that there isn't an Independence gov. However much that's not true will be irrelevant. You can't support two parties.. Either swap allegiances James or stop undermining the independence movement.
DeleteThe right way to confront Alba AND keep winning over no voters to yes:
ReplyDeleteKeep affirming their position as the vanguard of Scottish independence, exactly as they HAVE been doing. Keep making the case for Indy, as they have been doing, talking about the issues: currency, Europe, covid recovery as an independent nation. Keep building on this momentum. Seize the moment, when the majority of Scots finally vote in a majority for independence (hopefully in May).
Personally? I'll be voting in NE Scotland - SNP in the constituency ballot, and Alba in the regional ballot.
I'm also in the NE, but this intervention from Salmond at the last minute has not been enough for me to change from, SNP Mairi Gougeon in the constituency and Green in the regional list.
DeleteI am also in NE. Given zero list seats last time, SNP constituency and Alba/Green on the list is very sensible. Alba will get my vote but I have no issue with those who'd vote Green
DeleteSET ENGLAND FREE, VOTE 1 AND n2 S.N.P.
DeleteI'm in North East. Snp 1 alba 2. To the supermajority!
DeleteI noticed that the Alba party policy according to their website is to not hold a referendum. They want to begin negotiations based on a vote at Holyrood. Seems like an extreme policy for Salmond to stand behind. Come to think of it, perhaps they will throw away their existing website content and manifesto now he's taken over.
ReplyDelete"Extreme policy"? It's essentially identical to the SNP policy in every Westminster general election up to and including 1997.
DeleteMade sense for UK general elections. It's not as if the SNP winning a majority of Scots seats could force Westminster to grant Scotland an indyref.
DeleteUDI without any negotiations would be more extreme I guess, but I'd rule out anyone sane putting that in a manifesto. A majority of MSPs elected in a way that sidesteps proportional representation of public opinion being an immediate mandate for independence negotiations is... pretty out there imo. I thought you agreed with that but apparently not!
DeleteAs thrilled as I am to be graced with your presence once again, would you mind awfully letting me decide my own views, rather than you deciding them for me? Because, as you know, at no stage have I expressed the view you've just ascribed to me. Thanks in advance.
DeleteNow, to get back to my own question: could you explain why you think the SNP policy in every general election up to and including 1997 was "extreme" and "out there"?
ALBA now have more members than the SNP did in the 90s. Yet some people think they are a :"blip". Silly comment.
ReplyDeleteHow do you know? I joined yesterday and was number 2141 this morning a pal did and was 2700 odd
DeleteI think the SNP have to show a bit of antipathy. The SNP don't get list seats because they sweep the constituencies. If Alba were seen as a mini me proxy SNP the other parties who depend on the lists are likely to go to the courts, especially if the polls show traction for Alba. The two have to remain distinct and a wee bit of needle between the two is probably essential at the outset. The two then need to focus their fire on Boris and Starmer and pretty much ignore each other if this is to work. Even if Alba only took 1 list seat from the regions that return no SNP list seats it would be enough to ensure the unionists are in the doldrums.
ReplyDeleteI hope the polls are able to pick up any movement so we can see what is happening. If they ignore Alba then it may well consign Alba to obscurity.
Endlessly repeating the lies debunked in the court case is also not a sensible stratagem.
ReplyDeleteIt gives the victim a chance to tell the truth directly to the people.
It will cause those in the public who were not really paying close attention to start asking questions. The answers to which do not make comfortable reading for those currently in power.
Genuine question, but why would the Greens and Andy Whightman be in on a plot to 'get Salmond'?
DeleteSince I'm here.
ReplyDeleteWhat would happen if David Davis' suggestion was taken up by BJ?
What happens if an Alba MSP can speak under the same privilege as Davis?
How many sudden and strange self-deletions would occur to protect the Murrell cabal?
Still, it's good to see you and the Rev Stu back on the same side again.
ReplyDeleteSalmond is banking on the SNP winning a majority on the constituency. I would urge people vote SNP. Too many sideshows on the list and if Salmond manages to stop the SNP winning a majority and the SNP end up being dependent on his support in parliament, then one can only imagine the media and opposition reaction to this. "Sturgeon seeks support from old foe Salmond" NO THANKS.
ReplyDeleteThe goal is to become the "opposition." The Pro-indy opposition, demanding progress on the referendum and whatever comes next, week by week in parliament.
DeleteIf Alba really takes off, it's not just a matter of Salmond taking Patrick Harvie's spot! It's an Independence Parliament.
"If Alba really takes off" You said it "IF" and if it doesn't then step forward more Tories and Red Tories. I don't underestimate Salmonds commitments to independence for one second but if he gets elected to parliament he will undermine the SNP leadership and the unionist opposition will milk it until the cows udders run dry.
DeleteHow would red tories and tories get in.. Articulate dispassionately the mechanism. Alba massively increases the chances of a yes supermajority by blocking nawbags on the list. You can't articulate the mechanism because it's emotional ill thought-out gibberish
DeleteI believe the SNP were on course for an overall majority anyway.
ReplyDeleteUnionists will claim SNP plus Greens doesn't make a mandate, so Ditto ALBA.
Alex Salmond's baggage is fresh in the minds of voters, and IMO will limit how far it can go in winning seats.
Talk of ALba/ASP winning dozens of seats in hugely over optimistic.
What's clear is independence is the issue of the moment, which is a plus.
The obvious downside is some activists will leave the SNP whilst some will just "lend" their vote for this one SP election.
People need to think this through.
For the first time in yonks I bought the Herald today. Tom Gordon sees it as a bad news story. Predictable!
Still trying to find out the position of my SNP MP.
Nae answer so far, but as his judgement has been questionable in the past I winna be haudin my breath in anticipation.
I'm chewing this over but as the SNP are on the cusp of a victory in May I see huge risks to both the numbers of SNP and Greens MSPs elected in May.
The Greens could be in real trouble. How much of their vote is environmentalists vs. how much of it is tactical Yessers? I'm a bit of both. I've always voted for them here in Edinburgh. But it's either them or Alba this time.
DeleteThe SNP, however, have zero list seats here. Alba only hurts them in this election if the SNP backslides and loses Edinburgh constituencies to the Brits. No amount of list seats would be enough to stop an election like that from being an enormous setback to independence.
The list system is a strange beast. It's almost like it was designed for this, all along.
I had just finished reading this again when I saw the news of the Alba party.
DeleteIt has told me that constituency seats are the core of snp success and in Lothian in particular, losing constituency seats does not result in more list seats. In Lothian also, if the ‘loaned’ green votes reverted to snp then there ‘might’ be an snp list seat gained but only at the cost of a green seat.
Who knows what impact the Alba party vote will have here.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2016-Scottish-Parliament-Election.pdf
I think everybody is forgetting the female vote.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately for Salmond, when this topic has come up amongst friends and colleagues, the unprompted word 'creep' has been rather recurrent.
DeleteIf you are a gentleman with friends/family/colleagues likewise, it may come as a shock to discover the levels of sexual harassment / unwanted attention women are often subjected to by some men, particularly when unpleasant characters have power over them. They can get so used to it they don't even talk about it, but ask them and it will make your hair stand on end.
In many cases it's not quite criminal or their word against his. As a result, women are very sensitive on this topic. Salmond may not be a criminal, but it's not just a few people in the SNP saying his behavior was inappropriate, but everyone, greens included (who have interviewed complainers and read their testimony). Which is why the man did make apologies.
To win and win well, you need the backing of both sexes. It was women swinging behind the SNP in 2011 that gave them their majority. Women are also now more pro-Yes than men.
Alba may have taken one step forward and one back by going with Salmond as a leader rather than say just a candidate.
As leader, it also make it look to be all about him rather than indy. Wouldn't look like that if he was just a candidate.
Who's putting together the tactical voting wheel?
ReplyDeleteCos these things always go to plan right?
Just sayin. :-)
Be careful with your most important PR list vote folks. It is for who you want in government / cabinet.
Exactly!!
DeleteMentioned this on the previous thread not realising we had moved on. Did anyone else hear Clegg of the Record on GMS this morning. A very bitter and sour analysis of Alba and Salmond. Misfits and nuts I think were the terms he used. As political analysis goes jt has to be one of the most partisan and mean spirited I have heard in a while and that is coming from someone who is not convinced they will lend their list vote to Alba.
ReplyDeleteHe would be rather bitter as he was the editor of the Record who published the initial leak of the allegations. He thought he could derail the whole Independence movement. He can't. I am fairly relaxed on this Alba list vote thingy. It will soak up the malcontents and get them from stop moaning for 6 weeks, that is a very long time in politics.
DeleteI heard Clegg as well, very nasty little man. The whole piece was negative towards Partaidh na h-Alba. Wepolling as everyone is guessing but the SNP had better leave of their Alba attacks and concentrate on unionists or they will slump on the constituency vote. Considering the past performance of the SNP leadership in terms of decision making I imagine this will be lost on them. The SNP have a real possibility of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory here
DeleteSNP had better leave of their Alba attacks and concentrate on unionists or they will slump on the constituency vote
DeleteWould Alba voters maybe vote unionist or something?
I think the SNP are absolutely right to campaign for people to vote for them on the most important PR list.
Alba are standing against the SNP so are 'anti-SNP'.
I do think the fire should be directed at unionists though. Alba should do this too rather than attack the SNP.
Absolutely right. In South of Scotland region there is no guarantee of winning all constituency seats. List seats as in the past for the SNP could well be very necessary here. It looks like a fight with Alba party inevitable here which can only help the unionist cause.
DeleteOur local SNP branch very strong on both votes SNP. We understand the political realities here and the danger in gaming the system
Jimmy says gie Alaba da kicka da ba'
ReplyDeleteThis is good news in terms of less potential vote splitting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19191879.action-independence-stand-candidates-holyrood-election-alba-launch/
Action for Independence to stand down candidates in Holyrood election after Alba launch
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDeleted as old poll data; thought it was new.
DeleteThat 22% Of yes voters is significant. Salmond only needs 6% of overall votes to start picking up seats. Yes voters are roughly 50% of the country. So 22% of that 50 is easily 11% of the voting population.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I deleted the post as it was old data, not new.
DeleteHere it is.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1375451879153471501
James Just see a tweet from Sky news James Matthews that Kenny Macaskill is joining Alba. This could be the start of something huge if correct.
ReplyDeleteHuge in the way of splitting the SNP and giving the unionists a helping hand. Salmond and his ego will descend this election into a farce. The minority of Salmond supporters have put Salmond before independence.
DeleteHe should really step down from his Westminster seat if so.
DeleteThat's a really, really foolish suggestion. The last thing we need is another by-election in a marginal seat. He should see out his term of office.
DeleteKenny MacAskill MP (East Lothian) has left the Scottish National Party and joined the Alba Party.
ReplyDeleteI hope he pronounces the name correctly. Apart from one other I don't see many others joining. He and Salmond were part of the former '79 Group.
DeleteI had a look at the newspapers front pages when out shopping today. All copies of the National gone. Others OTT and hysterical. "Splits in the SNP etc, etc."
It is entirely up to him if he feels more at home in Alba.
DeleteHowever, if he has honor he should resign his Westminster seat. It's not fair for those who voted SNP in his constituency, donated to his campaign etc.
If he doesn't, he'd have less honor than Douglass Ross, who at least is remaining a Tory, which would not be a good look for Alba.
By contrast, if he steps down, I'd certainly be impressed and it would make me more favourable to Alba.
Min percentage of the vote Alba needs to win a list seat, and who it damages:
ReplyDeleteC Scot: 5.8% (Lab)
Glasgow: 5.9% (Grn)
Highlands: 5.5% (LDem)
Lothian: 6.6% (Lab)
Mid Scot: 6.0% (Con)
NE Scot: 6.2% (Grn)
S Scot: 5.4% (SNP)
W Scot: 5.3% (Lab)
I posted that yesterday. I don't know the methodology of how the Britain Elects/New Statements arrived at the figures as you cannot go by the 2016 results. People die, people come on to the electoral register, some switch parties. I would consider it more of a rough guide.
DeleteChris McEleney, Cynthia Guthrie and Eva Comrie were confirmed as candidates along with Salmond. Today, MP Kenny MacAskill announced he would leave the SNP and stand for Alba on the list. Corri Wilson, a former SNP MP for Ayr, said she would be doing the same.
ReplyDeleteScotland's equivalent of the Brexit Party. It could work. But I have as much overall respect, for the individuals involved, as Farage's effort.
ReplyDeleteIt could been named the Ego or Pity Party. Much social media comms seems to revolve around a perceived sense of victimhood or suggested misunderstanding - a generic example being the idea its various public reps as are on the receiving end of disproportionate abuse or disrespect. This is a really common default now on online political projection. Absolute moon howling stuff from a bunch of folks who love nothing more than a good old non evidenced, pejorative, ad hominem laden discourse about Sturgeon. A dip into the WoS drain highlights the hypocrisy and double standards applied by Salmond's acolytes: accuse Sturgeonistas of groupthink, veneration, idolatry, hostility etc etc...but with Salmond? Nah just the righteous figurehead for the Single Version of the Truth.
Alex failed in 2014 - he isn't The Bruce. Chris has a self-regard for his own political value that, to date, never quite seemed reciprocated by the SNP rank and file. Mackaskill...no end to his talents because there is little to begin from. Quiet as a bloody mouse under Salmond. Hardly a community boosting swashbuckler. But senses an opportunity to be a big fish in a small bucket.
Fair play to them. Careerists in politics to a middle aged man jack of them. I look forward in the weeks ahead to witnessing representation
of contemporary Scotland across their ranks. Perhaps not though eh?
I see little point in being churlish towards those who are gravitating towards Alba. Many are of the more direct approach towards independence whereas the current leadership of the SNP are more cautious. Perhaps having a party where these individuals feel more at home may not be a bad thing for both the SNP and the independence movement.
ReplyDeleteI despise the political trope of immediately bad mouthing anyone who leaves a party and suggesting they were rubbish anyway. It begs the question why were they selected in the first place if they are so awful.
I'm of the same opinion; voters need homes.
DeleteI just think it's very dishonorable to try and suggest to people that their PR vote is some sort of spare extra one that they can have some fun with while pandering supermajority myths.
Salmond lied when he said loads of SNP list votes were 'wasted' last time. That's just not true at all and he knows it fine well.
The PR list vote governs the allocation of all seats in a region, and the SNP got a total share (constituency + top up list) that matched their list vote share, as was proportional and fair.
The result closely represented how people voted. Scotland 'got the government it vote for' (or as close to as any European social democratic PR system).
Salmond stood there and told me I should vote in a way that would disenfranchise loads of Scots and give Scotland 'a government it didn't vote for'. We have Westminster for that already thanks.
Alba should win votes on the merits of their policies and be honest about the AMS system. I'd be very happy if they got 5% of votes and 5% of seats etc. However, it is not seats we really need, but votes for Yes parties. A simple majority of Yes party seats is all that's required for iref2. It's unionists that demand supermajorities.
The SNP have never been anything but absolutely honest about AMS to me, and I value that. I've been critical of the greens for being dishonest at times on this.
Most Green voters are not SNP using their second vote for Green. They are Greens using their less important tactical FPTP vote for the SNP. And that is how Alba should sell themselves.
@Angus Robertson
DeleteIf the SNP match their list and constituency results it can secure a super-majority. If pro-indy supporters split their votes it can actually lead to the loss of seats. To guarantee the strongest pro-independence representation it has to be #BothVotesSNP
Clear dishonesty from Robertson.
orth East List Vote 2016
DeleteSNP 44.7% 0 List MSPs
Tory 28% 4 List MSPs
Lab 12.6% 2 List MSPs
LD 6% 1 List MSPs
Seriously, explain to me how voting SNP on the list in the north east is sensible?
The snp won 9 out of 17 total seats in the North East Region. More than half. I struggle to see how the result was not fair? Are you suggesting they should have been given all the 8 list seats as well as their 9 constituency ones? That would mean over half of NE voters disenfranchised.
DeleteYes, it is undoubtedly fair as it stands under PR but say 12% of voters do opt for Alba and they take 2 list seats. It wouldn't be fair proportionally but it would undeniably work. If it looks like this might happen, once the dust settles, then instead of gloating about divisions in the SNP the other parties will start to get really worried and agitated.
DeleteAs it is I see Murray Ross wants to create a Unionist Alliance to counter this threat (again). Sarwar would need his head tested if he married Labour to the Tories but he is probably the most right wing leader they have had for some time.
I do know this, but a scotland where lots of voters are disenfranchised is not a recipe for success. It's UK 2.0.
DeleteFolk should be careful what they wish for.
Yes doesn't need a supermajority. If it gets one, it should be because a supermajority voted for yes parties.
I am amused at the panicked better together alliance chat.
DeleteLabour and the libs won't go for it though. Not before the election anyway!
If Yes had won 70% of seats using the 'supermajority' method in 2011 it would have made naff all difference. If only 45% backed Yes, so the f**k what?
DeleteYou might have hoped kicking most unionist MPs out of office by getting a hugely disproportionate number of SNP Westminster MPs relative to vote share might have helped things along but it hasn't really, has it.
What we need is >50% Yes and these represented appropriately.
A majority in 2011 with Salmond at the helm got us a referendum. What did a minority in 2016 with Sturgeon in charge get us?
DeleteA referendum isn't any use unless you win it.
DeleteThe support was not there.
Identity is a barrier which is very difficult to overcome.
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19191810.older-voters-seem-prone-voting-no/
Time is doing that though.
Understand your concerns Skier... But the system was entirely set up by Unionist parties to kill Independence stone dead... In the same way First Past the post keeps control of the masses and a majority votes against the Uk Governments each time... Maybe it's time to use the system against the...maybe play not so nice for a while.
DeleteNo, devo was set up to kill indy stone dead. PR was used to stop the SNP getting a majority on a minority of the vote. It is also the system used in most European countries, notably in Scandinavian social democracies.
DeleteIn the last two elections Yes parties have won comfortable combined majorities without any need for gambling strategies. They got that because Scots are now voting for them.
Trying to get more than our fair share of MSPs will not help get independence. The focus should be maximizing pro-Yes MSPs by maximisiong votes for Yes parties.
Why didn't Salmond set up a more right of centre Yes party to target the socially conservative vote? That's what's missing.
Instead, he's looking to get votes from the SNP along largely. The goal is to take votes from other Yes parties.
It's like the SNP putting out a manifesto that mainly comprises of telling Green voters to vote SNP not Green, rather than trying to get former lab/lib/con voters behind them and Yes.
To be fair the previous ref without a win had huge value. Future lost refs would be devastating tho. We must win the next one. But Scots just weren't willing to discuss independence seriously until it was absolutely necessary to do so. It is why the pro indy vote increased to 45+. Without it we would be nowhere near this amount by now as folk just wouldn't take it seriously.
DeleteSome big words from Sturgeon.
ReplyDeleteAsked about Mr Salmond's vision of securing a "supermajority", Ms Sturgeon said: "I know Alex Salmond very well. He makes big claims which often don't stand up to scrutiny."
The first minister added her predecessor has changed his mind on how to secure independence due to "self interest and, dare I say it, ego".
She added: "Alex Salmond is a gambler. It is what he enjoys doing. But this is not the time to gamble with the future of the country."
On reading some of the reaction to Salmond and his new party, I’m not sure it will get the support it thinks. Alex is toxic now with a huge proportion of Indy voters and it would appear that it is only Salmond supporters who can ignore his misdemeanours and remember his contribution to the Indy cause. But, these are few now I think. I can not see how this concept can help the Indy cause.
ReplyDeleteAlba only need to get 10% of the SNP list votes (not 10% of the list vote) to make a positive impact.
DeleteThis does neatly highly how Alba is directly attacking the SNP and trying to take votes from them.
DeleteIt's silly for Salmond to lie through his teeth and try to say the opposite. I mean come on big man; be honest!
If Alba were complimentary to the SNP, the SNP would advocate a vote for them.
Alba should make no bones about this. It's the honorable approach.
Explain how his saying "vote SNP in the constituency vote" is attacking the SNP?
DeleteBecause it is the PR list that governs seat allocation. If that wasn't the case, the SNP would be advocating a vote for the Greens, Alba on the list. They are against it because folk voting Alba will cost them seats.
DeleteAlba are openly saying they are there to attack the SNP if the latter don't do as they want. If they had enough backing, they would stand on the constituency vote too.
That's not 'complimentary' any more than UKIP was to the Tories. You can't set yourself up to pressure a big party then say you are it's friend. Tories hated UKIP even though UKIP was made of Tories.
Voters can split their vote to try and achieve an aim by pitting Alba against SNP. However, that's what they are doing. They don't have two votes.
IF you use your PR list vote up winning a constituency, that's it, it's deducted from remaining list seat allocations fairly. If you lose your PR vote due to FPTP in the constituency, you get it counted under the list. Fairly.
You can try to cheat the system like Salmond suggested, and maybe by doing do you'll sort of get two votes. But you may also lose both so be careful.
If something is too good to be true, it normally is.
If the SNP was seriously concerned about list votes they wouldn't have played silly games with the list candidate allocation.
DeleteWell, I got who I voted for here in the south of Scotland.
DeleteIncidentally, polling shows BAME people are much more indy leaning than the average Scot, so the SNP move could boost the Yes vote here.
I credit my BAME friends with a bit more agency than "oh that candidate has same colour of skin as me, so now I like them." Heh.
DeleteThat was a silly response.
DeletePassive Progressive: "Explain how his saying "vote SNP in the constituency vote" is attacking the SNP?"
DeleteI think it starts from the premise that the SNP are their own worst enemies.
The Tories and others were going to be using Alex Salmond as a weapon against the SNP in the election. Now they can't as he is ofski. That neutralises that attack line. It will be interesting to see how the campaign of the unionists change to reflect the changing politic bodies.
ReplyDeleteThat's an interesting point which hadn't occurred to me. Maybe this will divide the unionists more than those who are independence minded. Unionists attacking one party will be seen to be taking the side of the other.
DeleteThat's a good point and why the SNP would need to distance itself from Alba even if Abla was not in direct competition for votes; which it very, very much is.
DeleteThe attacks on Salmond were relentless last time. With much more juicy stuff to use now, the unionists would find it irresistible.
It could be argued Salmond will be the most unassailable politician in this campaign, given the entire weight of the state just spent two years trying to pin anything on him to take him off the board.
DeleteIf there was a skeleton they'd've found it.
A poll has appeared in the Express and just appeared on twitter. A non-standard poll. You can read the article by posting the link and not giving the Express any traffic. It claims that the SNP will win 71 seats and Yes ahead.
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/oQYPw
Non-standard should have read - not by a traditional polling firm.
DeleteThe electoral calculus input lends it some credibility.
Delete48% Yes vs 44% No
‘Gaming the system’ rather than honestly voting for what you want (Green, SNP, Alba, Labour etc) is just a continuation of a corrupt Westminster model.
ReplyDeleteVote for the party you want to govern on the list. Vote for the party closest to your wishes, but with a chance of winning, on the constituency vote.
We need to reclaim democracy, not regame it.
This is a good article on how support for indy is not age related, but generational. As a result, the Yes/No switch age point keeps rising every day without anyone changing position.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19191810.older-voters-seem-prone-voting-no/
I have been saying this for many years; the post-war consensus baby boomers just ID much more as british.
We should consider predictable/unintended consequences.
ReplyDeleteBy standing against the SNP on the list ALBA will be expecting a mass switch from the SNP. Don't think the SNP will take this lying down and all the good work of the SG and the FM in the fight against Covid and in promoting pro-family policies will be disregarded in the campaign.
Let's remind ourselves who the enemy is in May.
Three London HQ'd parties masquerading as "Scottish". The ALBA party is a reality but many of its leading lights have an axe to grind against the SNP.
In the coming weeks how the two parties tackle each other will decide whether any positive result is possible.
Some of the zealots supporting ALBA seem to be against voting SNP in the constituency vote, even though ALBA say they should.
Journalists will ask questions designed to cause division.
We'll all need to refuse to be baited and above all keep the heid.
James, I note that you can't be bothered with looking at polling results whilst hyping the "Alba" party.
ReplyDeleteI would normally delete that comment, but I'll leave it up to give me the opportunity to say this: please do what you said you were going to do a few weeks ago and "boycott" this blog. Go away and stay away. I am sick to the back teeth of your trolling and your defamatory accusations. Take your extremism and your attitude problem elsewhere.
DeleteUp yours you yankee tossturd!
DeleteGo back to frotting over Dementia Biden and Blowjob Harris
Oh, it's you Donald !
DeleteIt is depressing to see SNP attack Alba Party. It is sign of how far the SNP has sunk morally when they spend more time attacking Indy Party's and not Yoons. It is also depressing to see them attacking Indy Party's and not promoting Independence. Do they deserve to be called the Scottish National Party any longer?
ReplyDeleteWhen the BBC and the Brit Nat Press and Media has the SNPs back then you know there is something really rank in the SNP.
Alba have said they are targeting SNP voters rather than unionists, so the SNP response isn't really a shock.
DeleteI'd like to see Alba get votes, but not at the expense of other Yes parties. I can't see how that helps the cause.
I note that the SNP are not attacking the Greens, but seeking to bring Labour/Lib/Con voters across the floor to vote SNP and Yes.
DeleteWhat gets us independence is more Yes / Yes party voters.
DeleteIf you want to see where fighting over the same pool of voters gets you, just look at Lab/Lib/Con.
It's a pity we don't have a right of centre Yes party. That's where new votes are to be found. The social democratic left of centre & environmentalist is already well covered.
I can't see 'Were are the SNP with a small difference on a couple of policies' getting Scotland closer to indy, even though it might make a group of voters feel more at home.
Wheesht for Alba !
Deletehttps://www.albaparty.org/
ReplyDeleteThe #Supermajority strategy creates the opportunity to secure over one million additional votes for independence.
Sorry, but this is pure bunkum. 1 million magical extra votes for indy. Just wave the magic wand...
It should read, if honest:
The Alba strategy is to take one million votes off the SNP while not putting any real focus on targeting the unionist vote.
Which is fine if you prefer to have Alba leading the indy movement.
But we can pretty safely assume that Alba promo material will all be about swapping from the SNP to Alba rather than getting unionists behind indy. By contrast, SNP material will be about getting former No voters on board which usually means toning down the 'nationalist' rhetoric a tad. Gentle continuous persuasion with a focus on it being 'Your choice' rather than 'indy the morn ya bam!'.
You do know that the support of 67% in Parliament allows that body to make changes to the electoral system, and call elections at any time, among other things.
DeleteYou really don't know anything about politics, just constant murrell onanism.
It's not a paradox. By treating Alba as its primary "threat", the SNP are able to diminish attention upon the unionist parties and elevate Alba's status above them. What a gift!
ReplyDeleteIt also prevents an intervention from the Electoral Commission, like when Labour's idea of running Labour Co-op as a list party was shot down. The SNP has to be *seen* to fight desperately for list votes no matter how much they might privately be reconciled or even supportive of Alba.
I'll be disappointed if six more defections to Alba doesn't occur at Westminster before the election - this would make them a larger group than the Scottish Tories and the SNP would still have 40/59.
A few more defections on top of that, then we have Scottish nationalists as the 3rd and 4th largest parties in Westminster overall. Imagine if Alba becomes the 2nd largest in Holyrood off the back of that!
Your third para is worthy of attention ;-)
DeleteOpinium Poll for the Observer.
ReplyDeleteThe Scottish sub-sample for Westminster this week is:
SNP 54
Con 25
Lab 16
LD 3
GRN 2
Usual caveats for a sub sample but gives an indication how the parties stand in relation to public opinion. The sub sample had 30% of the Scottish sample claim to have voted Tory in 2019 when the actual percentage was 25%. So a slight over sampling of Tories.
As has been correctly surmised in another place.
ReplyDeleteMurrell's reaction and disgusting smears just prove (should anyone still be in any doubt) that she did organise a conspiracy to prevent Salmond from returning to politics.
Now he leads the 2nd largest party in Scotland and has the same number of MPs as labour's Scottish Branch.
Tee and indeed Hee.
Lord Ha Ha. We shall see how the thing pans out over the next 6 weeks. If the Alba results in less unionist MSP's then that is fine. However the Unionist play dirty. Get out the mud guards.
DeleteI like the new word someone made up: Supermajority.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to this week's political party's post-covid government economic recovery plan. I wouldn't think there is much chance of it being more than Leave the UK! + Rejoin the EU!
It isn't a new word. The Merkins use it in relation to a set trigger in Congress to enact constitutional changes. 2/3rds majority I think in most cases. Certainly if there was 66% of MSPs in Holyrood in favour of a referendum it would not be a good look on the international stage for Westminster to deny one. So in that respect Alex is right, although this would be an informal supermajority rather than a written constitutional one.
DeleteWhen to only sensible comment is from Anas Sarwar saying the Holyrood election shouldn't be an SNP psycodrama you know we are in store for a piontless waste of time that very few people will be interested in.
ReplyDeleteFM of Wales Mark Drakeford shows what we're missing in Scotland - a Labour party that has its finger on the pulse of the people.
ReplyDeleteLabour in Scotland's vote has shrunk at every election since 1999 and its easy to see why.
Their policy on the constitution is the same as the Tories even though 30% plus of their voters would vote YES in the next Indyref.
They leave these voters as a prime target for the SNP and other indy parties including the new Alex Salmond party.
In Wales three Welsh Labour candidates are pro Welsh independence.
In Scotland Labour are punishing members who back independence, whilst their Unionism trumps their belief in social justice.
A grim election result awaits "Scottish. Labour IMO.
Surely the obvious best response is to do a deal with Alba whereby the SNP only stands in the constituencies, and (with perhaps a couple of carefully calculated exceptions) leaves the lists clear for Alba. That way you beat the d'Hondt fudge, no?
ReplyDeleteMaybe you should do a poll to find out if Salmond makes folk more or less likely to vote Indy
ReplyDeleteMaybe you should do a poll to find out if Salmond makes folk more or less likely to vote Indy
ReplyDeleteSuper Majority is just a smoke screen for the real ambition of AS, get Sturgeon, and if Alba hold the balance of power after the 6th May, she's toast.
ReplyDelete