Friday, January 15, 2021

The most biased poll questions ever?

You might remember that when this blog commissioned its third Panelbase poll last autumn, I had a bit of a dilemma, because I wanted to find out about public attitudes to the Internal Market Bill's impact on devolution, but I knew there was no point in simply asking "do you approve of the Internal Market Bill?" Most people weren't in any position to judge whether they approved of it, because the mainstream media hadn't bothered informing them about it. So I had little choice but to ask lengthier questions that summarised some of the effects of the Bill. I kept everything straightforward and factual, but this still led to a prolonged meltdown from a number of unionist trolls on Twitter about what was supposedly the most "shockingly biased" poll they had ever seen. Curiously, though, those people have had nothing to say so far about a Panelbase poll that is currently being carried out, and which contains a couple of questions that by any standards must be considered several billion times more biased and leading than anything I've ever come up with.  In fact they may well be the most brazenly biased questions I've ever seen asked in a bona fide political poll.

Should Scotland turn its back on the Rest of the UK in a future referendum, would it be reasonable for the Rest of the UK to reduce its footprint in Scotland and (immediately after the referendum) start reducing investment and employment in Scotland. Shipbuilding, Civil Service, etc. 

Options:

Yes 
No 

Do you consider the SNP contingent of MPs in Westminster to be...

Options:

Representative of the Scottish character 
An embarrassment

Make no mistake, these were not questions commissioned by the UK Government, or by the Conservative party, or by some well-funded anti-indy think tank.  Leaving aside the bias, the first question just has a hopelessly amateurish feel about it.  There isn't even a question mark at the end of the question, and the "shipbuilding, civil service, etc" part along with the bit in brackets seem to have been shoved in as an afterthought, making the whole thing very disjointed and difficult to follow. I actually saw a chap on Twitter fantasising a few weeks ago about the possibility of blackmailing the people of Scotland into staying in the UK by telling us in advance that all UK government funding (ie. our own tax revenues) would be withdrawn in the transitional period between a Yes vote and independence day.  I wish I could remember who that was, because that might well be a pretty strong clue as to who is behind these poll questions.

As for the second question, can you imagine the outrage if a pro-indy client commissioned a poll asking if the Tories are "representative of the Scottish character"?  Even the notion that there is such a thing as "the Scottish character" that people are expected to measure up to would be considered racist.  It reminds me of the night before the independence referendum in September 2014, when Neil Oliver went on Newsnight and informed viewers that the proposition put forward by the Yes campaign was "fundamentally un-Scottish", whatever the hell that was supposed to mean.  Saying that people are un-Scottish simply because they oppose independence would have been deemed disgraceful and appalling, but somehow saying the same thing about people simply because they support independence is fine and barely merits a shrug.  

Incidentally, both questions are "forced choice", ie. there's no "Don't Know" option.  So on the second question, respondents will either have to answer that SNP MPs are "representative of the Scottish character" or "an embarrassment".  The only way to avoid giving one of those two answers will be to abandon the poll altogether.  I suspect that's going to backfire on whoever commissioned the question, because people who don't know or don't have a strong view are probably more likely to gravitate towards "representative of the Scottish character" as the more reasonable, restrained answer.  Only frothing unionists would regard "an embarrassment" as the default response.  So I'm pretty confident there'll be a clear majority for "representative of the Scottish character", which almost certainly means this particular result will never see the light of day.

A couple of other questions from the poll were also screenshotted on Twitter -

Considering the extreme differences in styles between them, who would be the better negotiator for Scotland post an Independence vote?

Options:

Alex Salmond
Nicola Sturgeon

Do you agree with Ms Sturgeon's statement from September 19th 2016 that "Independence transcends Brexit, oil, National Wealth, and all political fads and trends"?

Options:

Yes 
No

Although oddly worded, those questions aren't so biased, so I can't work out whether they were commissioned by the same client.  My first thought was that the Salmond/Sturgeon question might have been commissioned by Wings, but on closer inspection I don't think so.  Whatever else might be said about him, Stuart is a highly literate wordsmith, and he would be unlikely to come up with an ugly formulation such as "post an Independence vote".  

There are also apparently a number of questions about the SSP, leading some people to express confusion about why the SSP would commission a poll containing unionist-skewed questions.  There's no mystery about that - it'll simply be a composite poll with questions commissioned by two or more very different clients.

*  *  *

A few days ago, I mentioned on Twitter a passing thought I'd had about starting a Scot Goes Pop podcast, and I was very surprised by how positive the reaction was.  I might consider it once the forthcoming poll is completed.  Of course to make it worthwhile I'd need to invite guests to take part, so do you have any thoughts about who you'd most like to hear from?  (Ideally people who'd be likely to agree to do it!)

*  *  *

I have an analysis piece at The National about yesterday's remarkable Savanta ComRes poll showing a Yes vote of 57% - you can read it HERE.


16 comments:

  1. I'm not really au fait with polling practices, but it seems very odd to me that composite polls take place.

    There are a number of issues, e.g. -

    1. Who decides to do that? If it's the polling company, do they tell those commissioning the polls? Do they charge less?
    2. Do those paying for the polls have the option to refuse being part of a composite poll?
    3. I assume the individual poll results are published separately. Is the fact that this was part of a composite poll made public?
    4. Do they mix up the sets of questions, randomly or otherwise?
    5. How often do you think this happens?

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    Replies
    1. Sometimes there are omnibus polls which everyone knows from the start are going to be multi-client, and it's beneficial because they keep the costs down for everyone. Another possibility is that a second client can have a question or two tacked on to the questionnaire for a full-scale poll commissioned by someone else.

      For the poll I commissioned in November, Panelbase asked if I had any objection to another client adding on a question or two. It turned out to be Wings, but that didn't bother me because my own questions were asked first, so it wouldn't have affected the outcome in any way.

      Delete
  2. I would say that poll was laced with anti Scottish racism and not just bias James. You are being way too polite about some of the questions. The Tories in Scotland arent representative of the Scottish Character. They don't even see themselves as Scottish. Well most of them are white settlers.

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  3. Pod guests - Mark Diffley? Prof Curtice (this might be akin to requesting a papal audience :-) ). James Johnson (of JL partners, used to run polling for T May) would be good for an insight into enemy thinking.

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    Replies
    1. John Curtice is a great guy, but I would imagine with his time in such demand, he might not do that sort of thing without a fee, which is fair enough.

      Delete
    2. Curtice may well be a nice guy but is he not a Britnat?

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  4. The FM of Scotland of course wouldn't negotiate Scottish indy. That would undertaken by a team of expert negotiators under the supervision of a minister charged with that brief by the Scottish parliament.

    As you can see with brexit, Boris attempting to negotiate 'himself' got nowhere, and just made him look stupid. It's not how these things work.

    Such focus on leaders is characteristically unionist, which might give a clue as to which side was asking.

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  5. Some of these questions are dreadful.

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  6. Tories. This is what they think, it's just most of the time they're not stupid enough to get caught saying it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55673808

    Tory candidate Craig Ross dropped for 'unacceptable' remarks

    ...Craig Ross recorded a podcast last year in which he described food bank users as being more at risk of diabetes than starvation.

    Of course some don't care and openly call Scots 'c**ts, woke, transfans, junkies' etc.

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    Replies
    1. Smearer Skier referencing the BBC as a trusted source again. Only Britnats think that.

      Didn't you say your name was Ross.

      Delete
  7. This sae-cried "Poll" is surely a primary school project that Miss flung in the bin.
    Stupidity in Union?

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  8. What a f'n mess.

    https://www.farminguk.com/news/-excessive-bureaucracy-brings-uk-meat-sector-to-standstill_57370.html

    'Excessive bureaucracy' brings UK meat sector to standstill

    UK meat processors have warned they are experiencing major issues in exporting their products to the EU, bringing parts of the industry to a 'complete standstill'.

    #Bettertogether

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  9. Only George Galloway's mob could come up with something as laughable as this.

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  10. Rees-Mogg's reply to the serious concerns of the Scottish fishermen that they're now catching 'happy British fish" shows us the contempt that they hold for Scotland and its MP's.
    Now we're told that UK Covid response cash is to bypass Cardiff and the Scottish government and be spent directly by the UK, bypassing democratic control and scrutiny.
    It's about time the SNP took the gloves off.
    The UK Govt are blatantly behaving as an English colonial regime and overriding the elected Parliament of Scotland.
    We send £Billions of taxes and revenues to the London/UK treasury every year.
    All we're getting back is contempt.

    ReplyDelete