Sunday, November 29, 2020

SNP vote surges in two Perth by-elections

So just a brief round-up of a couple of local by-election results I overlooked the other day... 

Perth City South: 

SNP 32.9% (+5.2) 
Liberal Democrats 31.6% (-3.1) 
Conservatives 29.4% (+4.2) 
Labour 3.5% (-2.9) 
Greens 2.3% (-0.8) 
UKIP 0.3% (n/a) 

This is one of those bonkers results that can only occur due to the STV system, and which we know from past experience that poor old Mike "impartial Lib Dem election expert" Smithson struggles to get his head around. The Lib Dems topped the poll in the ward in 2017, and the SNP have overtaken them this time. The SNP vote has gone up, and the Lib Dem vote has gone down. The net swing from Lib Dem to SNP is a very healthy 4%. And yet technically the result of the by-election is a Lib Dem gain from the SNP. How is that even possible? Well, it's because STV is a proportional system with multi-councillor wards, and the by-election was caused by the death of an SNP councillor who was elected in 2017 after finishing in third place in the ward on the first preference vote. However, as soon as a vacancy occurs, STV suddenly stops being a proportional system, and all the voters of the ward get to choose a replacement, which naturally gives an in-built advantage to whichever party topped the popular vote in the ward last time around.

But hang on, didn't the SNP top the popular vote in the by-election? So how come it's a Lib Dem gain? That's because STV is also a preferential system, and the lower preferences of Tory voters will have broken heavily for the Lib Dems. A tight head-to-head between the SNP and the Lib Dems on first preferences when there are lots of Tory transfers sloshing around is essentially an unwinnable scenario for the SNP. 

Perth City North: 
 
SNP 61.0% (+12.5) 
Conservatives 22.9% (-2.7) 
Labour 9.5% (-6.3) 
Liberal Democrats 3.9% (+0.4) 
Greens 2.6% (n/a) 

Not much need to worry about transfers when you have 61% on first preferences! The SNP's average increase across the two by-elections is more than 8%, which tends to suggest the mildly underwhelming recent result in Clackmannanshire was - as we suspected at the time - an aberration caused by local factors.

7 comments:

  1. Couple of points from recent threads. Of course it is completely legitimate for people who support independence to criticise the SNP if they don't agree with there policies - whether that be on a second referendum or any other subject. Critsising a political party if you don't agree with there policy is quite normal; seems to be a growing trend to label independence supporters who do so as 'unionists', of course they are not it is perfectly possible to openly criticize the SNP, maybe even join or start an alternative pro indy party and still support independence.

    I do agree that holding a referendum when the polls suggest that the 'yes' side would of lost, with hindsight, would not of been a good idea. However now of course that is a mute point and I can see no reason that (as looks likely) there is a pro independence majority after next years elections that the legislation for a second indyref be on the statue books by the summer of 2021, with a provisional date in spring/early summer 2022 for the referendum to be held.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Totally agree, what I find weird though is people demanding a party do what they personally want when they're not even prepared to join it.

      I don't like the Tories and criticize them because I don't want them in power. I'm not telling them what to do, but attacking their governance because I want them out.

      What I don't do is e.g. demand that the Tories give up on capitalism and become left wing because that's how I would like to see them run, even though I can't be ersed joining them and trying to make that happen, but instead just shout my lofty opinions from my armchair day in day out.

      You'll find that the biggest critics of the SNP in the 'indy movement' right now are not actually members, with some of the most well-known having never even voted SNP, and living in Southern England.

      I can't see the difference between such people telling the SNP how to run their party and Boris Johnson telling Scots how to run Scotland.

      If people are unhappy with the way the SNP are doing things, they can suggest an alternative or join the SNP and try to change their direction. Just moaning incessantly is either unionist plantism or lazy as fk and don't care about independence.

      Delete
    2. It's also rather telling how little time current 'pro-independence' ardent SNP critics spend criticizing unionist parties such as the Tories. Often none at all.

      Delete
    3. I agree that for internal matters such as members of the SNP NEC SNP leadership etc then only SNP members should comment on matters regarding that.

      However it is perfectly normal and correct that anyone (no matter what party they support or if they are a nationalist or unionist) should be able to to challenge or criticise the First Minister of Scotland and her Government about any policy that they want to weather that is regarding something not related to independence such as self id or why the Scottish Government has not yet held a second referendum, as you say this is completely normal and exactly the same as challenging the UK Prime Minster and his Government on their policies. Doing so does not make you a unionist it just means that you are using your demographic right to critsise the Government - its only in places like North Korea that you are not allowed to do this.

      Delete
    4. Sure, but when all someone does is criticize everyone in a party / the entire party, no matter if they e.g. are anti-self id or pro-plan B, incessantly, day in and day out, while rarely if ever (?) openly attacking the UK government / parties in such a way, it kind a smells a bit suspicious.

      We are talking about people that tell me how great Joan McAlpine is for standing up to the 'woke transfans' while telling me not to vote for her as my list MSP because she's SNP.

      However, I am one to say that if you want to criticise, you must have viable alternatives to propose, otherwise, you should keep your mouth shut.

      And I've never told anyone that they can't criticize a party, just said don't do a Boris Johnson and tell others how to run their own house even if you don't live in it as it tends to make you look like a pompous prick.

      Delete
  2. I'd like to add my tuppence worth in. I see many folk on social media saying that "unless the SNP do as the want they will resign" I did say when I first read one of them go on resign then, or stay and try and change minds of the rest of the party. Afterwards I just ignored them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Every day since 2014 I've dreamed of another shot at iref2. I deep down knew we'd lose in 2014; Cameron called it right and what could the SNP do but try. I did have a hope that maybe, just maybe, but I expected to lose. It was too early; Scotland's time had not quite yet come, with the opposing forces still too strong.

      Next time, I want to win, and the SNP message of 'we need to persuade more people before we try again' has been absolutely the correct, factual advice. We can hold a million irefs and lose every time, which we will unless >50% back indy. It's not rocket science.

      So people demanding the SNP hold an iref in 2018 can only be doing so because they wished they had and Yes had lost again.

      It doesn't take 70% yes, just a message from Scots that 'yes, we are now ready'. The polls suggest we may now, after many decades of progress, have reached that point. Scots will tell us in May 2021 if they are ready.

      Delete