Long term readers of the blog will recall that in the run-up to the 2014 indyref, I regularly updated the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls, which differed from other Polls of Polls in one key respect - it only included the most recent poll from each individual polling firm. Because there were such wide disparities between the No-friendly and Yes-friendly firms, it seemed obvious to me that you'd get wildly misleading trends if you went back and forth from a sample that was 75% comprised of YouGov polls to one that was 75% comprised of ICM or Panelbase polls. I eliminated that problem by ensuring the balance between firms remained exactly the same in each update.
Since 2014, it's rarely been feasible to apply the same method, because there usually haven't been enough independence polls from a broad enough range of pollsters. But for obvious reasons, the last few weeks have seen a flurry of polls, and they've come from no fewer than six different firms - two of which (Savanta ComRes and JL Partners) had never polled on independence before. Here's what the average of the most recent poll of each of the six shows...
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 54.8%
No 45.2%
There's no longer the chasm between Yes-friendly and No-friendly firms that we used to see a few years ago. But for what it's worth, the most No-friendly firms at the moment are YouGov and Savanta ComRes (both of which have Yes on 53%) and the most Yes-friendly firm is Ipsos-Mori (which has Yes on 58%). Curiously, Survation are currently closer (54%) to the No-friendly end of the spectrum, even though we've always tended to regard them as a relatively Yes-friendly firm.
The 'settled will of the Scottish people'.
ReplyDeleteWell beyond 'overwhelming' support now certainly.
Alister Jack was only joking when he ruled out an indyref2 for 40 years says the National. On the other hand SSS wasn't joking.
ReplyDeleteHe may have been joking when he said 40 years but today in the House of Commons he wasn't joking when he said 25 years. Sound like an English dictatorship to me.
DeleteBritNats prefer comparing apples and oranges when quoting indy polling.
ReplyDeleteThis SGP method gives more reliable figures that we can rely on.
A near 10% lead means in fitba parlance its ours to lose.
John Major is being held up as some kind of a hero for "reportedly" having told Johnson that blocking Indyref2 was a wrong move.
Major's concern was that EnglandUK would lose control of Scotland.
He doesn't give a toss for Scotland or democracy, so let's have a plan B strategy but for God's sake keep it to ourselves till its needed.
BTW on polling questions, how about asking the public if they personally might get active in the next indy campaign. The answers might be interesting.
What does the White House and Bute House have in common.
ReplyDelete1. Both the encumbents are desperately fighting to remain in situ.
2. Both are trying to use their Justice system to keep their Town House.
3. Both have abused their power and position.
I read this blog every day.
ReplyDeleteI am heartbroken to be losing the argument.
As a unionist, I’m starting to think the only way of saving the UK in some form and keeping the British people together is through Full Fiscal Autonomy/becoming a loose Confederation..
The alternatives (no referendum for 40 years or a higher voting threshold) will cause too much unrest.
Understatement of the century.
DeleteWe'll gie ye unrest!
The problem is that Westminster have dangled the Devo Max/FFA/Federalism carrot multiple times already and it always fails to materialise.
DeleteIt's nothing other than a ploy to try and entice people away from independence, and the people of Scotland won't be fooled by it again.