Thursday, July 9, 2020

The pro-independence majority has been mostly caused by people changing their minds, and not by 'demographic drift'

A reader emailed me yesterday to ask whether I thought there was any truth in the following comment. I'm not sure what the source of it is - the use of the word "independentista" made me think it might be Jason McCann, but I can't spot anything like this on his blog.

"None of the efforts of we independentistas, or unionists, to persuade others of the merits of our cause, makes any difference. The Brexit, COVID-19 incidents do not affect support for independence. The increase in those supporting independence since the first referendum in 2014, is entirely due to old people, who overwhelmingly support the Union, dying of old age, and young people, who overwhelmingly support independence joining the electoral role (sic)..."

This is just about the easiest question I've ever been asked - the answer is an emphatic "no", the comment is not true. You only need to look at the datasets of all recent polls to see that some people who voted Yes in 2014 are now in the No column, that some people who voted No in 2014 are now in the Yes column, and that significantly more people have moved from No to Yes than vice versa - hence the Yes majority. Last weekend's Panelbase poll suggested that 19% of 2014 No voters are now Yes, and that only 6% of 2014 Yes voters are now No.

There may have been some 'passive demographic drift' towards Yes over and above the direct swing, but people who think the answer to all our problems is just to wait a couple of decades are barking up the wrong tree. Even leaving aside the distasteful nature of the suggestion that we should wait for elderly No voters to die, the fundamental problem is that the passage of time also turns younger voters into older voters, a process that often changes their political views. There's a grain of truth in the suggestion that people become more conservative as they get older - it doesn't happen to everyone by any means, but it does happen to some.

Look at it this way - in 1992, there was a famous opinion poll that put support for independence at exactly 50%. You might remember it was the top headline on News at Ten (those were the days when News at Ten was actually a news programme). The "demographic destiny" brigade would have looked at that number and declared that all we needed to do is wait twenty years and we'd have a Yes vote of 70% - which makes it somewhat mysterious that 55% of people voted No in 2014. Probably some of the young-ish people who were pro-independence in that 1992 poll ended up voting No in 2014 because the Better Together campaign scared them witless about their pensions or whatever.

80 comments:

  1. When pollsters correct for Recalled 2014 vote do they take into account this demographic drift.

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    1. Yes, this is correct. We are not dealing with the same electorate. It's changed significantly in 6 years through births/deaths and immigration/emigration. As much as 16%.

      Then we have had numerous elections and another major constitutional referendum since 2014. It's really getting nonsensical to weight by 2014, and even by 2016.

      This can be seen in the unweighted base. It recalls 2016 EU and 2019 GE perfectly, but claims to have voted 50% Yes in 2014.

      I thought the recent change to weighting by 2019 would have corrected that, but it seems not. This may well be a result of the voting age population being skewed to Yes as young Yessers replace older Nos who've passed away. Obviously, recent votes are not affected by this problem.

      Weighting by a vote many years ago is ok as long as choice was not generational. Then the passage of time won't affect it. However, Yes is very generational, so could be skewed.

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    2. Net result is that yes may be higher than 54%. A MORI poll might give us an idea as they don't past vote weight.

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    3. If we take it that your figure of 16% is 8% joining the register and 8% leaving the register we can calculate a rough figure for the correct recall. At the time if we had polled 1000 voters then 550 would have voted no and 450 have voted yes. Since then 80 new voters have joined the register replacing the 80 who have left. Of those older voters who have died 80% will have voted no and 20% yes, ie 65 and 15 voters respectively. Therefore, we may estimate that of a 1000 voters polled now 80 are too young to have voted in 2014, 485 voted no and 435 voted yes. 8%, 48.5% and 43.5% respectively, ie the gap among those who voted has reduced to 5%.

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  2. I both agree and disagree with you on this. It is true that waiting for old unionists to die off is just a barking mad proposition, but - there is something in demographics. It's the elephant (not only figuratively but literally judging by the size of that group) in the demographic sample - and it's the baby-boomers. Just look at the number of births for any year in the late 40's and the 50's and then compare that figure to the number of births for any year in the 90's or later. Our population pyramid (and not only Scottish, but also English, European or American ones) is completely skewed towards the baby-boomers. Electorally they are such a huge cohort (compared to other generations) that they've decided the elections (and referendums) so far. But - they are now 65 to 75 and are inevitably on their way out. Their numbers are falling (and I'm not saying that this is a good or bad thing - it's just an inevitable thing) and our population pyramid will start getting a more normal shape where one generation won't be as prevalent as it was for the last 50 years.
    Now - I think this will electorally influence England far more than Scotland. Scottish baby-boomers are not connected to the Tories in the way English baby-boomers are. In England over 70 per cent of them vote Tory. And Tories win because the number of baby-boomers is so big compared to other age brackets. In England Tories are not doing well with under 50's at all. Interesting comparison is that when Thatcher won first in England, she won even among the 18-24s.
    But Scotland is much different here - and SNP's support among the older age brackets is far from the low figures Labour get in England. But still not as good as among the younger age brackets. So - as the baby-boomer generation gets smaller and smaller (and this is completely natural - my parents belong to that generation and I most certainly don't wish them ill, but I also realise they will die sooner or later), the electorate will change considerably.

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    1. Without wishing to sound crass, there is a certain irony in that the Tories elderly core vote (in England anyway) are the ones most at risk from Covid-19. But then Dominic Cummings and some Tory MPs knew this in March. It was reported in the Sunday Times that Cummings was not bothered by elderly people's deaths as he was in favour of herd immunity at the time. In the same article a Tory MP was quoted as saying "the problem is that it is Tory voters who are dying," or words to that effect....

      In the past few years, the only Tory MP that I have seen who has publicly admitted that the Tory party's dependence on an ageing generation of voters is a long-term problem for them is Jo Johnson - Boris's younger brother......

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    2. Since 1992 more than 500,000 english voters have infested Scotland. They all voted no. Remove them and you have over 60% Yes. Can anyone explain why people from the country trying to prevent Scottish Independence should be allowed a vote? You either have self-determination or you give up. Virtue -signalling to avoid being accused of being anti-english cost us in 2014 and it will cost us next time unless the mongos in charge are removed.

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    3. That's guff. 30% voted Yes. Only a unionist would make this mistake.

      There's also 750,000 Scots voters and taxpayers in England, which makes for 1/4 of a million's worth of Scots taxes not accounted for in GERS. This is important to unionists, so worth pointing out.

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    4. These maps shows how remarkable the differences in England are between the 55- and 55+ cohorts.
      It also shows that although the differences in Scotland exist, they are nowhere near as stark as in England - i.e. SNP is doing reasonably well with 55+ cohort as well.

      https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-map-uk-young-old-voters-a4323171.html

      This Panelbase breakdown of the poll on Scottish attitudes towards rejoining the EU is interesting as well.

      https://www.businessforscotland.com/poll-finds-growing-gulf-in-support-for-eu-membership-between-scotland-and-england/

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  3. 70 years ago the majority of the voting age public asked fo home rule. That was ignored and the campaign dies. This is the simple cycle the Unionists manage. Whatever the demonstration of support - simply ignore it.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Covenant

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  4. I remember the 1992 new item on News at Ten. 28% for the SNP in that poll (up 14% from 1987) that ended up at 22% on polling day.

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  5. At the end of 2014 I'd decided the demographic argument would win it, and I remember James you saying that to the contrary, young people become old people, who as a matter of course become more conservative. And the stubbornness of the polls to move until this year back that view up. It's interesting that it has taken a combination of UK incompetence, and a health emergency that disproportionately threatens old people, to see a genuine shift in the polls.

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  6. Please remember this point when the SNP spend your hard-earned taxes and all that money from Monaco tax exile Jim McColl and Mr Brian Souter on rattling their enormous advertising swill bucket. The country adverts, the Yes We Can posters, the feel good events like their pathetic re-enactment of the Battle of Bannockburn. Don't fall for their patronising sham, It insults your intelligence.

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    1. Brian Souter's last political donations were to the Liberal Democrats.

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    2. Has a habit then of donating to right wing orgs.

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    3. That would certainly explain why he hasn't donated to the SNP in many years.

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  7. An 86 year old lady Tory neighbour of mine told me today she will vote for Independence because Nicola Sturgeon has given her the confidence that Scotland doesn't need to be *part of England* as long as we have people like her in charge

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    1. Great news! Just need to keep her on board when the bullshit starts spewing from the inevitable project fear.

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    2. Is the 86 year old standing for FM?

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    3. Is the 86 year old standing for FM?

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    4. Yer a sad little dying breed, wee Orangeman

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    5. You are wrong about breeding. What is this Orange obsession you Irish immigrants in Scotland have? Are you upset we Unionists condemn Catholic priest buggery of children.

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    6. What is with this desperate need to publicly air this sexual deviance obsession of yours, Mr Creep?

      You really should seek help (before you get arrested for it).

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    7. See GWC, I told you it was unionists 'not respecting 2014' that's created the 54% Yes.

      It's your side that's breaking the union by crossing the floor.

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    8. Independence for ScotlandJuly 10, 2020 at 12:31 PM

      Clearly, GWC thinks he is funny but he is really a pretty disgusting individual.

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    9. Covidia thinks it has a sense of humour.
      What it really has is a collection of diseased hatreds and warped obsessions, cultivated over years of unthinking British nationalist obedience.
      It's to be pitied.

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  8. Could be wrong but my impression was that day to day polling was crap at detecting shifting demographics like that.

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  9. Independence for ScotlandJuly 9, 2020 at 11:03 PM

    Old Tories hate higher taxes and think that independence would mean higher taxes. However, a lot of them hate dying even more and see that Johnson does not care about them but Sturgeon does.

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  10. Old gits my age tend to be conservative with a small 'c' - and can you see any change in the percentages in this age group? Some people become crusty as they get older. It's one of the demographics Yes need to attack / persuade next time round. It looks to me that Indy votes are coming along nicely in younger age groups.
    Personally I'll vote for independence at the drop of a tammy. I just hope to see it come about before I peg it.

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  11. I think the demographic change as the baby boomers pass on will be significant. The baby boomers spent most of their lives voting Labour or Tory - that was normal, and their default 'conservative' behaviour. The generations coming through have lived through a period where the SNP has become dominant and voting for them and seeing them in power is normal. So their default 'conservative' or traditional votong position is SNP/nationalist. They are mostly not going to change to voting Tory/Unionist as they age. I do think this explains the SNP leaderships slow train to independence approach - we are waiting to arrive at an inevitable destination.

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  12. Not that I really want to wait - I'm an old git just like Del G, and I want to see independence for my kids' and grandkids' sake.

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    1. Yay! Let’s hear it for us old yins.
      Hurry up Scotland, come on!
      I already feel prehistoric when I mention going to Mondial98 let alone Italia90 - I’m planning on being around for a while but the clock is ticking.

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  13. ScottytheScotinScotlandJuly 10, 2020 at 10:44 AM

    When Westminster started to see that their covid figures were looking bad in comparison with other countries they just stopped publishing/showing their comparison graphs at the daily briefings.

    Now when England figures are very poor compared to Scotland/Wales/N Ireland they just show UK figures and no breakdown and cancel their daily briefings.

    England must always be seen to be the superior nation in the UK any facts that say otherwise must be hidden.

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  14. Know there was some concern few days back about England's Covid infection rate being 5 times higher than Scotland's.

    Latest figures have them much closer with England at 0.03% (33/100,000) and Scotland's at 0.028% (28/100,000).

    Good news that England seems to be getting its levels close to Scotlands now.

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    1. Yes, that would be good news. The concern now seems to be localised hotspots where it's on the rise.

      https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12081785/the-43-local-authorities-in-england-coronavirus/

      COVID HOTSPOTS The 43 local authorities in England where coronavirus cases are on the rise, according to official stats

      Also why so many are still dying in England. Hundreds per day.

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    2. Could be homeless Scots, English toons are full of them.

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    3. Brit Scots and perhaps some Irish who think they are Scots.

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    4. Covidia has never been one to allow such a trifle as a global pandemic get in the way of its pathetic prejudices.

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    5. Brit Scots aye. 'Britain first, we ur a peeple' n that.

      And there's plenty of loyal orange Brit Irish too; sound like Mrs Doyle. They're the subsidy junkies just like the Brit Scots and the Brit English.

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    6. Go on go on Skier have a Protestant sandwich if your Jesuit friends permit.

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    7. I've no idea what that is and am pleased that's the case.

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  15. Scientists and media pressure Boris Johnson into following Nicola Sturgeons lead on face coverings, alsp Serbia removed from Englands list of quarantine travel

    England public health still concerned over 34 areas of England on the edge of lockdown

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    1. Thats all you nat sis care about. Knickerless and get fash mob

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  16. Scots are 'vermin' who's taxes are 'best spent in croydon', blacks are 'piccaninnies with watermelon smiles' and victims of genocide were asking for it...

    That's how low the UK has sunk. No wonder its 54%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53370703

    Boris Johnson urged to apologise for Srebrenica comments

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    1. Most Scots are racist but their views are not PC to the BBC and EU political capitalist liberal establishment.

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    2. Boris got it wrong, it is not the Scots who are vermin it is the Irish who pretend to be Scottish, like Skier. Send them back I say.

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    3. You mean brits here. That's what we all are remember.

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    4. Thought you were Irish!

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    5. Mair Brits in Ireland than there are Irish in the UK.

      The brits come looking for a better life and higher wages on the emerald isle.

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    6. Are you including UK Northern Ireland in your calculation?

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    7. Brits are 2% of the Irish Republic population, whereas Irish are just 0.5% of the UK population.

      You are 4 times as likely to meet a Brit on an Irish street that an Irishman in blighty.

      There is no doubt it's the Brits taking he high road to the Emerald Isle seeking a better life, lying drunk on the streets of Dublin etc.

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  17. Am I the only person who finds Lloyds TSB and McCain frozen chips adverts nauseating? I am going to ban them when I become President.

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    1. I like McCain jaicket potatoes with tuna or Scottish smoked salmon.

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    2. They always have been, but they've become n-dimensionally awful now.

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  18. What's wrong with real jacket potatoes? We don't need erstatz frozen ones? Just buy some big tatties.

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    1. It is economically beneficial for the housewife to buy frozen jaicketspuds. Gives her more time for housework,

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  19. Can anyone explain why the exemptions on mask-wearing do not apply to those who have already contracted covid19? You don't have to wear one if you have asthma and are far more likely to suffer from the disease, but you do if you are immune?

    Nicola Sturgeon wouldn't know science if it stole her double-ender.

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    1. It made me laugh that someone was dumb enough to think Sturgeon came up with the mask plan.

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    2. She is playing a blinder with the Jock faithful who do not have a clue like her. Thank goodness for the NHS.

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    3. ScottytheScotinScotlandJuly 11, 2020 at 12:56 PM

      Anonymous - There is no information to say anyone in the world is immune but you feel bold enough or stupid enough to post that nonsense.

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  20. I'm not sure such rudeness deserves a reply but there isn't much data on immunity,so better to err on the side of caution. You also want absolutely everyone who can wear a mask to wear one to normalise the behaviour. The more people seen to be opting out the more people will wonder why they should bother themselves.

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    1. The rules would also be a bit difficult to enforce, if anyone could just say "oh, I've already had it".

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  21. I am looking forward to seeing the madskull soccer fans and their inventive designer face masks. Then the David Francis Papal Mask followed by the Young James Newcastle United Mask. Hard to determine the Skier Mask.

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  22. The Greenock Telegraph reported a poll today which said "55-60% of people in Inverclyde would now vote for independence" and that it was "Panelbase research". I can't find any more information on the sample size ect or how and when it was conducted, although a 5-10% increase in the yes vote would be roughly in line with national polling if it is a reputable poll.

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    1. With further thought I think this is just the projection by Ballot Box Scotland based on the latest Panelbase poll, which for some reason is only being reported today and misleadingly as it's own poll.

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    2. That appeals to me in many ways. I feel I need to giggle as I think of Inverclyde going Whoosh over the rooftops like a witch on a broomstick or a wicked cobbler in a sleigh racing through the mountains. Oh... It's lovely.

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  23. ScottytheScotinScotlandJuly 11, 2020 at 2:27 PM

    Stupid Britnats thought that the virus would kill off independence. Instead it is killing the UK. The UK has underlying health problems not the independence movement which is in great health. The Union is sick and soon will be history.

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    1. Biased and unhelpful.

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    2. ScottytheScotinScotlandJuly 11, 2020 at 5:13 PM

      Eartha Moir - I agree the Britnat media are biased and unhelpful but what else can you expect when they are told what to say and do by a foreign country.

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    3. Simplistic and victimful.

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    4. Admirably self-aware, Ms Moir.

      (Assumed wounded victimhood is one of the longstanding ploys of Bitter Together, but it is wearing rather thin these days.)

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  24. Quite a few folk in Kinross services the day with no masks on. English accents. Campervans in the car park.

    Visitors welcome, but can they please obey the law?

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    1. Loads of Scots in Drymen and Balmaha today, no masks.

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    2. Naw definitely kilted Scots, singing sad songs about Culloden and the Boyne.

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  25. You clearly censor comments you dont like. Sad.
    Your 92 comparison is stupid and you know it

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